Florida State at Louisville - 2026 Matchup Preview
Florida State logo

Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals

Louisville logo
Friday, October 9th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Papa John's Cardinal Stadium - Louisville, KY  (ACC)

 
Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (38 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (19 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#54)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 7) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
LOU is playing their 6th straight game
FSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -7  (SP+ LOU -5)
Projected Score: FSU: 23 - LOU: 30 (52)
LOU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
FSU Travel: 543 miles
Cardinals (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (28 - 12)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (34 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 3.7 (#24)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 6) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Florida State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 Florida State vs New Mexico State-26
Mon 9/7 Florida State vs SMU+3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19 Florida State at Alabama+13.5
Sat 9/26 Florida State vs Central Arkansas-31.5
Sat 10/3 Florida State vs Virginia+0.5
Fri 10/9 Florida State at Louisville+7
Sat 10/17 Florida State at Miami+19
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Florida State vs Clemson+0.5
Sat 11/7 Florida State at Boston College-8.5
Fri 11/13 Florida State at Pittsburgh+4
Sat 11/21 Florida State vs NC State-2
Fri 11/27 Florida State vs Florida-1

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 7, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 7, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Louisville's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Louisville vs Ole Miss+12.5
Fri 9/11 Louisville vs Villanova-36.5
Sat 9/19 Louisville vs SMU-1
Sat 9/26 Louisville vs Wake Forest-7.5
Sat 10/3 Louisville at NC State-2
Fri 10/9 Louisville vs Florida State-7
Sat 10/17 Louisville at Syracuse-15
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Louisville vs Stanford-20
Fri 11/6 Louisville at Georgia Tech-1.5
Sat 11/14 Louisville at North Carolina-10.5
Sat 11/21 Louisville vs Pittsburgh-5.5
Sat 11/28 Louisville at Kentucky-6.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#22 (.27)46% (32)3350% (10)3.4 (7)21941% (81)2533.95 (46)#68 (.16)42% (76)2242% (66)43% (79)4.12 (110)45.31.61.2
LOU#84 (.15)45% (44)29.950% (8)2.75 (105)16441% (74)2213.62 (77)#15 (.05)37% (16)21.238% (15)37% (19)3.38 (43)63.21.31.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense123318.645.9%3.951.6244722192535.255%44%50%41%15%.27
LOU Defense1321.218.936.7%3.381.5 - - - - - 46%53%38%37%17%.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense122230.242.1%4.121.2 - - - - - 55%44%42%43%16%.16
LOU Offense1329.933.844.7%3.621.3203851642215.144%53%50%41%17%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State1228:4524.151%57%5.445.31.61.26.12.6029
Louisville1330:1219.635%64%6.963.21.31.55.92.4232.4
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense1255% (32)50% (10)42.1218.85.231 (4).25 (12)3.4 (7)75% (47)9% (59)1.03 (45)
LOU Defense1346% (17)38% (15) - - - - .07 (51)2.74 (41)75% (97)11% (38)0.95 (63)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense1255% (123)42% (66) - - - - .11 (74)3.12 (106)76% (105)11% (28)0.86 (19)
LOU Offense1344% (111)50% (8)32.31645.125 (70).21 (21)2.75 (105)65% (108)10% (98)1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense1244% (104)41% (81)16.728.3253.4915.220 (33)9 (60).32 (46)1.9 (5)31% (67)38% (10).5 (11)6% (48)2.1 (30)
LOU Defense1353% (120)37% (19) - - - - - - 14 (6).06 (6)1.4 (7)34% (24)24% (8).11 (9)7% (38)1.9 (23)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense1244% (16)43% (79) - - - - - - 12 (12).25 (69)1.5 (58)30% (104)30% (75).34 (92)5% (122)2 (68)
LOU Offense1353% (35)41% (74)20.632.2220.66.910.718 (75)9 (60).13 (119)1.4 (131)28% (21)27% (104).14 (124)6% (90)1.9 (107)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 9.08  #42
Florida State's Offense Rating: 15.77  #45
Florida State's Defense Rating: 11.69  #39
2026 Talent Rating: 950.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 36%  #17
Florida State's 2026 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Florida State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2  #41
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3  #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2  #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 9.08   Louisville: 15.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 7.2   Louisville: 12.4




Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 15.25  #28
Louisville's Offense Rating: 19.05  #28
Louisville's Defense Rating: 10.95  #35
2026 Talent Rating: 806.00  #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 10  #39
Louisville's 2026 Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7
Louisville's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.4  #25
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8  #29

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.6
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Florida State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Louisville 30
Florida State 23

Projected Total Points: 52
Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.8
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.9

Louisville's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202312/02Florida State16Louisville6Florida State -3.5Florida State51.0Under
202209/16Louisville31Florida State35Florida State -2.5Florida State57.0Over
202109/25Florida State23Louisville31Florida State -1.5Louisville61.0Under
202010/24Louisville48Florida State16Louisville -5.0Louisville63.0Over
201909/21Florida State35Louisville24Florida State -6.5Florida State61.0Under
201809/29Louisville24Florida State28Florida State -4.5Louisville47.5Over
201710/21Florida State28Louisville31Florida State -7Louisville58.0Over
201609/17Louisville63Florida State20Florida State -4.5Louisville65.0Over
201510/17Florida State41Louisville21Florida State -9Florida State47.0Over
201410/30Louisville31Florida State42Florida State -8.5Florida State0
200209/26Louisville26Florida State20
200009/22Florida State31Louisville0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisville556 Overs
Florida State753 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 56 - 44 - 22 - 2
Road Teams5 - 74 - 62 - 22 - 4

(#42) FSU at (#28) LOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFSULOU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #42 #28
SP+SP+ #41 #25
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #24 #60
Blue ChipsBC% #17 #39
Florida State Notes
(2/14) Vibes: Lowest in 40+ years, Norvell era failing
(2/16) OL none back. 5 portals that started 12 games LY
(2/2) OC Gus Malzahn retiring, Tim Harris now OC (WR)
(2/2) Word is Norvell will call plays in '26
(2/1) QB: A Daniels (Aub) starter? DeNobile (FCS)?
(2/1) RB has options. Wisner (Tx) added, Kromah back
(2/1) WR Robinson & Danzy great duo. Depth v young
(2/1) DL has some good parts + 2 exp'd portal adds
(2/1) LBs have one starter back and lots of questions
(2/1) DBs rebuild. 5 portal adds. Talent here but ?
Florida State Injury Report
Louisville Notes
(3/3) Vibes: High, love Brohm, big portals, 9 W's a year
(2/7) RB I Brown back + K Brown. Have depth here
(2/2) DC English out, 30 portals in/37 out. Big changes
(2/2) OL looks good w 5 portal adds. Must find Center
(2/2) QB1 Kienholz (OSU portal), Wydner (FCS) exp'd
(2/2) WR rebuild, 4 portal adds incl Richardson & McCoy
(2/2) TE Brody Foley was a big get, big target + blocker
(2/2) DEs really good, but portal DTs must hit. Depth?
(2/2) LBs strongest unit, A Watts is an All American
(2/2) DBs added 6 portals, Entriger (Iowa) big add
(2/2) DT, CB & WR have big ?? OL portals must gel
Louisville Injury Report
Florida State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffLOU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #32 #16
ExplosiveExp #20 #26
PPAPPA #22 #15
PowerPwr #45 #35
SP+SP+ #54 #29
Pts POPPO #46 #43
HavocHav #54 #33
Florida State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffLOU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #15
Run ExplRExp #45 #63
PPAExp #12 #51
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #7 #41
Stuff RateStuff #5 #52
TackleTak - NR
Florida State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffLOU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #19
Pass ExplPExl #5 #7
PPAExp #46 #6
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #59 #38
DB HavocDB #48 #38
Louisville on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLOU OffFSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #44 #76
ExplosiveExp #90 #14
PPAPPA #84 #68
PowerPwr #28 #39
SP+SP+ #39 #38
Pts POPPO #77 #110
HavocHav #93 #72
Louisville Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffFSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #8 #66
Run ExplRExp #28 #19
PPAExp #21 #74
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #105 #106
Stuff RateStuff #122 #120
TackleTak - NR
Louisville Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLOU OffFSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #74 #79
Pass ExplPExl #131 #58
PPAExp #119 #69
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #98 #28
DB HavocDB #90 #122
Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Florida State beat Louisville in 2023 (16-6)

  
FSU's OC Tim Harris (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dean DeNobile (Tr)22334764%25281977.3
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6811957%797326.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Gemari Sands (Tr)10546504.437
Ousmane Kromah7240805.723
Samuel Singleton5136047.153
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson561074619.282
Micahi Danzy27571321.166
Desirrio Riles (Tr)28362212.942
Gemari Sands (Tr)4021705.418

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ashlynd Barker485412
Blake Nichelson437111
Ja'Bril Rawls402002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mandrell Desir308711
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ashlynd Barker485412
Rylan Kennedy (Tr)144211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)3130013
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ja'Bril Rawls402002

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Davin Wydner (Tr)14826356%16721586.4
Lincoln Kienholz (Tr)111479%139109.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown10188478.878
Keyjuan Brown9670467.367
Davin Wydner (Tr)11044134.034
Braxton Jennings3720015.422
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Richardson (Tr)47810717.275
Jackson Voth (Tr)48536411.235
Brody Foley (Tr)36521714.572
Lawayne McCoy (Tr)27403314.934

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Mark Ivey (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Koen Entringer (Tr)734013
Clev Lubin5913873
T.J. Capers463001
Tayon Holloway424104
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clev Lubin5913873
Tyler Thompson (Tr)268711
Adonijah Green316440
Antonio Watts427323
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tayon Holloway424104
Koen Entringer (Tr)734013
Clev Lubin5913873