New Mexico State at Florida State - 2026 Matchup Preview

New Mexico State Aggies at Florida State Seminoles

Saturday, August 29th 2026 (12:00 AM EDT)
Field at Doak Campbell Stadium - Tallahassee, FL

Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (7 - 17)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0.1 - 0.9 (#92)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Florida State -26 (SP+ FSU -23)
Projected Score: NMSU: 15 - FSU: 41 (55)
FSU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 58%
NMSU Travel: 1328 miles, 2 hrs behind

Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (38 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (43 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#54)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 7) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
NMSU Players
FSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	New Mexico State at Florida State	+26

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Florida State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	Florida State vs New Mexico State	-26
Mon 9/7	Florida State vs SMU	+3.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19	Florida State at Alabama	+13.5
Sat 9/26	Florida State vs Central Arkansas	-31.5
Sat 10/3	Florida State vs Virginia	+0.5
Fri 10/9	Florida State at Louisville	+7
Sat 10/17	Florida State at Miami	+19
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31	Florida State vs Clemson	+0.5
Sat 11/7	Florida State at Boston College	-8.5
Fri 11/13	Florida State at Pittsburgh	+4
Sat 11/21	Florida State vs NC State	-2
Fri 11/27	Florida State vs Florida	-1

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 7, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 7, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	#125 (.05)	37% (123)	21.6	33% (135)	2.13 (134)	77	40% (92)	250	3.21 (114)	#40 (.11)	42% (72)	27.6	41% (52)	44% (108)	3.29 (34)	54.4	2	1.9
FSU	#22 (.27)	46% (32)	33	50% (10)	3.4 (7)	219	41% (81)	253	3.95 (46)	#68 (.16)	42% (76)	22	42% (66)	43% (79)	4.12 (110)	45.3	1.6	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	12	21.6	20	36.7%	3.21	2	20	328	77	250	2.6	39%	59%	33%	40%	20%	.05
FSU Defense	12	22	16.1	42.1%	4.12	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	42%	43%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	12	27.6	37.5	42%	3.29	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	41%	44%	16%	.11
FSU Offense	12	33	43.3	45.9%	3.95	1.6	24	472	219	253	5.2	55%	44%	50%	41%	15%	.27

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	12	30:05	20.3	42%	41%	6.2	54.4	2	1.9	5	1.5	1	28.4
Florida State	12	28:45	24.1	51%	57%	5.4	45.3	1.6	1.2	6.1	2.6	0	29

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	12	39% (130)	33% (135)	29.7	77.4	2.6	9 (132)	-.09 (135)	2.13 (134)	69% (89)	11% (107)	0.91 (88)
FSU Defense	12	55% (123)	42% (66)	-	-	-	-	.11 (74)	3.12 (106)	76% (105)	11% (28)	0.86 (19)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	12	50% (61)	41% (52)	-	-	-	-	(15)	2.99 (91)	71% (70)	9% (106)	0.92 (45)
FSU Offense	12	55% (32)	50% (10)	42.1	218.8	5.2	31 (4)	.25 (12)	3.4 (7)	75% (47)	9% (59)	1.03 (45)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	12	59% (7)	40% (92)	23	39.3	250.3	6.4	10.9	17 (86)	16 (34)	.17 (112)	1.4 (110)	36% (130)	27% (109)	.2 (108)	10% (136)	1.9 (102)
FSU Defense	12	44% (16)	43% (79)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (12)	.25 (69)	1.5 (58)	30% (104)	30% (75)	.34 (92)	5% (122)	2 (68)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	12	48% (66)	44% (108)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (31)	.26 (76)	1.5 (43)	31% (69)	27% (26)	.23 (45)	7% (22)	2.1 (104)
FSU Offense	12	44% (104)	41% (81)	16.7	28.3	253.4	9	15.2	20 (33)	9 (60)	.32 (46)	1.9 (5)	31% (67)	38% (10)	.5 (11)	6% (48)	2.1 (30)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -15.25 #131
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 0.53 #134
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 20.78 #108
2026 Talent Rating: 356.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #103
New Mexico State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.1 - 0.9
New Mexico State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.5 #123
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.7 #112
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.9 #120

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 485.09
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -15.25 Florida State: 10.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -15.5 Florida State: 7.2

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 10.64 #42
Florida State's Offense Rating: 15.77 #45
Florida State's Defense Rating: 11.69 #39
2026 Talent Rating: 950.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 36 #17
Florida State's 2026 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Florida State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #41
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2 #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Florida State 41
New Mexico State 15

Projected Total Points: 55

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Florida State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida State	0	0	0 Overs
New Mexico State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#131) NMSU at (#42) FSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NMSU	FSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#131	#42
SP+SP+	#123	#41
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#132	#24
Blue ChipsBC%	#103	#17

New Mexico State Injury Report

Florida State Notes(2/14) Vibes: Lowest in 40+ years, Norvell era failing
(2/16) OL none back. 5 portals that started 12 games LY
(2/2) OC Gus Malzahn retiring, Tim Harris now OC (WR)
(2/2) Word is Norvell will call plays in '26
(2/1) QB: A Daniels (Aub) starter? DeNobile (FCS)?
(2/1) RB has options. Wisner (Tx) added, Kromah back
(2/1) WR Robinson & Danzy great duo. Depth v young
(2/1) DL has some good parts + 2 exp'd portal adds
(2/1) LBs have one starter back and lots of questions
(2/1) DBs rebuild. 5 portal adds. Talent here but ?
Florida State Injury Report

New Mexico State on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	FSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#123	#76
ExplosiveExp	#56	#14
PPAPPA	#125	#68
PowerPwr	#134	#39
SP+SP+	#112	#38
Pts POPPO	#114	#110
HavocHav	#133	#72

New Mexico State Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#135	#66
Run ExplRExp	#88	#19
PPAExp	#135	#74
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#134	#106
Stuff RateStuff	#134	#120
TackleTak	-	NR

New Mexico State Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#92	#79
Pass ExplPExl	#110	#58
PPAExp	#112	#69
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#107	#28
DB HavocDB	#136	#122

Florida State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	NMSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#32	#72
ExplosiveExp	#20	#45
PPAPPA	#22	#40
PowerPwr	#45	#108
SP+SP+	#54	#120
Pts POPPO	#46	#34
HavocHav	#54	#71

Florida State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#52
Run ExplRExp	#45	#45
PPAExp	#12	#15
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#7	#91
Stuff RateStuff	#5	#59
TackleTak	-	NR

Florida State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#81	#108
Pass ExplPExl	#5	#43
PPAExp	#46	#76
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#59	#106
DB HavocDB	#48	#22

Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

NMSU's OC David Yost (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Trey Hedden	287	419	69%	2967	17	13	7.1
Adam Damante	70	104	67%	711	5	4	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
James Jones (Tr)	98	958	9	9.8	90
Dijon Stanley	73	297	2	4.1	57
Isaiah Rudison	42	158	2	3.8	36
Terrell Washington Jr. (Tr)	28	98	0	3.5	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyler King	41	588	3	14.3	64
Brodrick Malone	22	242	2	11.0	41
Lyndon Ravare (Tr)	21	237	1	11.3	38
Josiah Thomas (Tr)	28	228	3	8.1	20

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tory Gethers	87	5	3	1	2
Sone Aupiu	68	6	1	3	4
Nicolas Sessions	61	3	0	1	3
Bernock Iya	53	3	0	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tory Gethers	87	5	3	1	2
Henry Davis III	10	1	1	0	1
Sone Aupiu	68	6	1	3	4
Gabe Peterson	32	1	1	9	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Josiah Charles	28	0	0	0	5
Sone Aupiu	68	6	1	3	4
Lorenzo Smith	18	0	0	0	3

FSU's OC Tim Harris (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dean DeNobile (Tr)	223	347	64%	2528	19	7	7.3
Ashton Daniels (Tr)	68	119	57%	797	3	2	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Wisner	131	597	3	4.6	48
Gemari Sands (Tr)	105	465	0	4.4	37
Ousmane Kromah	72	408	0	5.7	23
Samuel Singleton	51	360	4	7.1	53

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Duce Robinson	56	1074	6	19.2	82
Micahi Danzy	27	571	3	21.1	66
Desirrio Riles (Tr)	28	362	2	12.9	42
Gemari Sands (Tr)	40	217	0	5.4	18

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Jones (Tr)	132	10	4	0	2
Ashlynd Barker	48	5	4	1	2
Blake Nichelson	43	7	1	1	1
Ja'Bril Rawls	40	2	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mandrell Desir	30	8	7	1	1
Chris Jones (Tr)	132	10	4	0	2
Ashlynd Barker	48	5	4	1	2
Rylan Kennedy (Tr)	14	4	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)	31	3	0	13
Chris Jones (Tr)	132	10	4	2
Ja'Bril Rawls	40	2	0	2