New Mexico State at Florida State - 2026 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at Florida State SeminolesFlorida State logo
Saturday, August 29th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Field at Doak Campbell Stadium - Tallahassee, FL

 
Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (7 - 17)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#96)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Florida State -26  (SP+ FSU -23)
Projected Score: NMSU: 15 - FSU: 41 (55)
FSU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 58%
NMSU Travel: 1328 miles, 2 hrs behind
Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (38 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (43 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
New Mexico State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 New Mexico State at Florida State+26

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Florida State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 Florida State vs New Mexico State-26
Mon 9/7 Florida State vs SMU+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19 Florida State at Alabama+12.5
Sat 9/26 Florida State vs Central Arkansas-31
Sat 10/3 Florida State vs Virginia-2
Fri 10/9 Florida State at Louisville+5.5
Sat 10/17 Florida State at Miami+18
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Florida State vs Clemson-1.5
Sat 11/7 Florida State at Boston College-10
Fri 11/13 Florida State at Pittsburgh+3
Sat 11/21 Florida State vs NC State-3
Fri 11/27 Florida State vs Florida-1

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#125 (.05)37% (123)21.633% (135)2.13 (134)7740% (92)2503.21 (114)#40 (.11)42% (72)27.641% (52)44% (108)3.29 (34)54.421.9
FSU#22 (.27)46% (32)3350% (10)3.4 (7)21941% (81)2533.95 (46)#68 (.16)42% (76)2242% (66)43% (79)4.12 (110)45.31.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1221.62036.7%3.21220328772502.639%59%33%40%20%.05
FSU Defense122216.142.1%4.121.2 - - - - - 55%44%42%43%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1227.637.542%3.291.9 - - - - - 50%48%41%44%16%.11
FSU Offense123343.345.9%3.951.6244722192535.255%44%50%41%15%.27

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1230:0520.342%41%6.254.421.951.5128.4
Florida State1228:4524.151%57%5.445.31.61.26.12.6029
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1239% (130)33% (135)29.777.42.69 (132)-.09 (135)2.13 (134)69% (89)11% (107)0.91 (88)
FSU Defense1255% (123)42% (66) - - - - .11 (74)3.12 (106)76% (105)11% (28)0.86 (19)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1250% (61)41% (52) - - - - (15)2.99 (91)71% (70)9% (106)0.92 (45)
FSU Offense1255% (32)50% (10)42.1218.85.231 (4).25 (12)3.4 (7)75% (47)9% (59)1.03 (45)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1259% (7)40% (92)2339.3250.36.410.917 (86)16 (34).17 (112)1.4 (110)36% (130)27% (109).2 (108)10% (136)1.9 (102)
FSU Defense1244% (16)43% (79) - - - - - - 12 (12).25 (69)1.5 (58)30% (104)30% (75).34 (92)5% (122)2 (68)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1248% (66)44% (108) - - - - - - 15 (31).26 (76)1.5 (43)31% (69)27% (26).23 (45)7% (22)2.1 (104)
FSU Offense1244% (104)41% (81)16.728.3253.4915.220 (33)9 (60).32 (46)1.9 (5)31% (67)38% (10).5 (11)6% (48)2.1 (30)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -16.45  #122
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 1.35  #122
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 22.80  #109
2026 Talent Rating: 304.00  #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
New Mexico State's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
New Mexico State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.5  #123
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.7  #112
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.9  #120

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 445.2
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -16.45   Florida State: 10.175

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -15.5   Florida State: 7.2




Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 10.175  #31
Florida State's Offense Rating: 15.90  #30
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.75  #37
2026 Talent Rating: 838.00  #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 45  #17
Florida State's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Florida State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2  #41
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3  #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2  #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Florida State 41
New Mexico State 15

Projected Total Points: 55
Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Florida State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida State000 Overs
New Mexico State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#122) NMSU at (#31) FSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNMSUFSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #122 #31
SP+SP+ #123 #41
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #131 #38
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #17
New Mexico State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffFSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #123 #76
ExplosiveExp #56 #14
PPAPPA #125 #68
PowerPwr #122 #37
SP+SP+ #112 #38
Pts POPPO #114 #110
HavocHav #133 #72
New Mexico State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffFSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #135 #66
Run ExplRExp #88 #19
PPAExp #135 #74
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #134 #106
Stuff RateStuff #134 #120
TackleTak - NR
New Mexico State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffFSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #92 #79
Pass ExplPExl #110 #58
PPAExp #112 #69
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #107 #28
DB HavocDB #136 #122
Florida State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatFSU OffNMSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #32 #72
ExplosiveExp #20 #45
PPAPPA #22 #40
PowerPwr #30 #109
SP+SP+ #54 #120
Pts POPPO #46 #34
HavocHav #54 #71
Florida State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffNMSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #52
Run ExplRExp #45 #45
PPAExp #12 #15
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #7 #91
Stuff RateStuff #5 #59
TackleTak - NR
Florida State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatFSU OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #108
Pass ExplPExl #5 #43
PPAExp #46 #76
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #59 #106
DB HavocDB #48 #22
Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NMSU's OC David Yost (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Adam Damante7010467%711546.8
Jake Mcnamara253768%305218.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
James Jones (Tr)9895899.890
Dijon Stanley7329724.157
Isaiah Rudison4215823.836
Terrell Washington Jr. (Tr)289803.513
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tyler King41588314.364
Brodrick Malone22242211.041
Lyndon Ravare (Tr)21237111.338
Dijon Stanley2412405.216

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sone Aupiu686134
Bernock Iya533023
Gabe Peterson321190
Josiah Charles280005
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Henry Davis III101101
Sone Aupiu686134
Rontravious Perry31100
Gabe Peterson321190
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Stilton McKelvey182005
Josiah Charles280005
Sone Aupiu686134

FSU's OC Gus Malzahn (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6811957%797326.7
Kevin Sperry121771%1942011.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Gemari Sands (Tr)10546504.437
Ousmane Kromah7240805.723
Samuel Singleton5136047.153
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson561074619.282
Micahi Danzy27571321.166
Desirrio Riles (Tr)28362212.942
Gemari Sands (Tr)4021705.418

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Blake Nichelson437111
Jeremiah Wilson421002
Ma'Khi Jones (Tr)342111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mandrell Desir308711
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Daniel Lyons264240
Rylan Kennedy (Tr)144211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)3130013
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Jeremiah Wilson421002