NC State at Virginia - 2026 Matchup Preview
NC State logo NC State Wolfpack at Virginia CavaliersVirginia logo
Saturday, August 29th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Nilton Santos Stadium - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

 
Wolfpack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (95 - 70)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (23 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#62)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Virginia -3.5  (SP+ UVA -6)
Projected Score: NCST: 27 - UVA: 30 (57)
UVA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
NCST Travel: 747 miles, 2 hrs behind
Cavaliers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (22 - 26)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (36 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 3.5 (#15)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
NC State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 NC State at Virginia+3.5
Sat 9/12 NC State vs Richmond-30.5
Sat 9/19 NC State at Vanderbilt+12
Sat 9/26 NC State vs App State-20.5
Sat 10/3 NC State vs Louisville+1
Sat 10/10 NC State vs Wake Forest-3.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/23 NC State at Stanford-9.5
Fri 10/30 NC State vs California-9
Fri 11/6 NC State vs Duke-5.5
Sat 11/14 NC State vs Syracuse-17
Sat 11/21 NC State at Florida State+3
Sat 11/28 NC State at North Carolina-5.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Virginia's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 Virginia vs NC State-3.5
Sat 9/12 Virginia vs Norfolk State-32
Sat 9/19 Virginia at West Virginia-8
Sat 9/26 Virginia vs Delaware-24.5
Sat 10/3 Virginia at Florida State+2
Sat 10/10 Virginia vs Syracuse-18.5
Sat 10/17 Virginia at SMU+6
Fri 10/23 Virginia vs Duke-6.5
Sat 10/31 Virginia at Wake Forest+0
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/14 Virginia vs California-10.5
Sat 11/21 Virginia vs North Carolina-12
Sat 11/28 Virginia at Virginia Tech-8

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#20 (.28)44% (50)30.244% (64)2.94 (68)14744% (44)2464.69 (8)#102 (.21)39% (39)27.238% (19)40% (55)3.7 (72)53.811.2
UVA#64 (.18)42% (82)30.844% (63)3.04 (53)18041% (79)2393.56 (82)#17 (.06)37% (20)19.639% (30)37% (22)3.01 (17)44.111.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UVA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Offense1330.22343.8%4.691203931472464.547%51%44%44%16%.28
UVA Defense1419.617.737.4%3.011.4 - - - - - 51%47%39%37%18%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Defense1327.239.839.2%3.71.2 - - - - - 43%56%38%40%15%.21
UVA Offense1430.836.441.6%3.561224191802394.650%49%44%41%14%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
NC State1329:5620.441%50%5.553.811.25.11.5127.9
Virginia1432:1621.650%47%5.344.111.44.82.1330.7
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Offense1347% (86)44% (64)32.5147.14.527 (40).19 (33)2.94 (68)73% (61)10% (98)1.1 (19)
UVA Defense1451% (77)39% (30) - - - - .04 (33)2.75 (42)71% (70)9% (77)0.92 (46)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Defense1343% (6)38% (19) - - - - .12 (80)2.87 (64)65% (25)8% (109)1.09 (124)
UVA Offense1450% (66)44% (63)38.9179.94.629 (11).19 (30)3.04 (53)81% (11)8% (23)1.06 (31)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Offense1351% (49)44% (44)21.531.8245.77.711.426 (33)10 (119).39 (25)1.6 (33)31% (65)32% (49).4 (32)6% (51)2.1 (53)
UVA Defense1447% (53)37% (22) - - - - - - 14 (38).15 (24)1.5 (44)32% (59)23% (3).11 (8)9% (5)1.9 (25)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Defense1356% (134)40% (55) - - - - - - 9 (75).3 (90)1.7 (117)35% (21)31% (91).38 (111)7% (46)2.1 (83)
UVA Offense1449% (71)41% (79)22.535.1239.16.810.618 (50)10 (60).24 (76)1.5 (73)32% (85)33% (34).36 (46)6% (65)1.9 (114)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 9.52  #27
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.15  #21
NC State's Defense Rating: 13.63  #42
2026 Talent Rating: 830.00  #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 10%  #39
NC State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.4 - 5.6
NC State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #55
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #45
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 9.52   Virginia: 10.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 4.8   Virginia: 11.1




Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 10.9  #39
Virginia's Offense Rating: 11.32  #64
Virginia's Defense Rating: 10.62  #29
2026 Talent Rating: 820.00  #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Virginia's 2026 Expected Record: 10.5 - 3.5
Virginia's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.1  #31
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #56
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.1  #19

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.8

NC State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Virginia 30
NC State 27

Projected Total Points: 57
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.4
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Virginia's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06NC State35Virginia31NC State -3.0NC State53.0Over
202309/22Virginia21NC State24NC State -8.5Virginia47.5Under
202010/10Virginia21NC State38Virginia -7NC State59.0Push
201809/29NC State35Virginia21NC State -5.5NC State52.5Over
201211/03NC State6Virginia33
201110/22Virginia14NC State28
200710/27NC State29Virginia24
200610/28Virginia14NC State7
200311/01NC State51Virginia37
200211/16Virginia14NC State9
200110/27NC State24Virginia0
200011/17Virginia24NC State17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Virginia412 Overs
NC State831 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 43 - 12 - 11 - 0
Road Teams4 - 81 - 30 - 11 - 2

(#27) NCST at (#39) UVA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNCSTUVA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #27 #39
SP+SP+ #55 #31
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #42 #47
Blue ChipsBC% #39 #65
NC State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffUVA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #50 #20
ExplosiveExp #13 #35
PPAPPA #20 #17
PowerPwr #21 #29
SP+SP+ #45 #19
Pts POPPO #8 #17
HavocHav #74 #23
NC State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffUVA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #64 #30
Run ExplRExp #19 #46
PPAExp #33 #33
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #68 #42
Stuff RateStuff #112 #68
TackleTak - NR
NC State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffUVA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #44 #22
Pass ExplPExl #33 #44
PPAExp #25 #24
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #98 #77
DB HavocDB #51 #5
Virginia on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatUVA OffNCST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #82 #39
ExplosiveExp #43 #134
PPAPPA #64 #102
PowerPwr #64 #42
SP+SP+ #56 #64
Pts POPPO #82 #72
HavocHav #39 #86
Virginia Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffNCST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #63 #19
Run ExplRExp #31 #124
PPAExp #30 #80
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #53 #64
Stuff RateStuff #32 #65
TackleTak - NR
Virginia Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatUVA OffNCST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #79 #55
Pass ExplPExl #73 #117
PPAExp #76 #90
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #23 #109
DB HavocDB #65 #46
Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nilton Santos Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
NC State beat Virginia last year (35-31)
NC State beat Virginia in 2023 (24-21)

  
NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey27339769%31052597.8
Will Wilson3560%16013.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayden Scott10659545.669
Davion Gause (Tr)6125834.225
CJ Bailey8921562.430
Will Wilson43146103.416
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow (Tr)62815813.175
Davion Dozier (Tr)20448522.468
Teddy Hoffmann25349314.055
Keenan Jackson28281210.033

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Asaad Brown Jr.640002
King Mack (Tr)581113
Ronnie Royal III492001
Jackson Vick452006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harvey Dyson III3110701
Chase Bond116220
Joseph Adedire62100
King Mack (Tr)581113
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackson Vick452006
Brian Nelson II291006
King Mack (Tr)581113

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Beau Pribula (Tr)18227067%19461197.2
Eli Holstein (Tr)7712562%10811268.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jekail Middlebrook (Tr)14075245.472
Solomon Beebe (Tr)5633866.081
Beau Pribula (Tr)9529763.149
Peyton Lewis (Tr)7029074.132
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacquon Gibson (Tr)6361609.850
Jahmal Edrine46564112.337
Jekail Middlebrook (Tr)40412310.348
Tyson Davis (Tr)25323212.936

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Jones (Tr)665001
Jalen McNair (Tr)502014
Brandyn Hillman (Tr)493003
Landon Danley481010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zion Wilson (Tr)4210641
Nnanna Anyanwu (Tr)217541
Fisher Camac446424
Jason Hammond333340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Fisher Camac446424
Jalen McNair (Tr)502014
Justin Ross (Tr)322134