Florida State at Alabama - 2026 Matchup Preview
Florida State logo Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson TideAlabama logo
Saturday, September 19th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Bryant Denny Stadium - Tuscaloosa, AL

 
Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (38 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (19 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
FSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Alabama -12.5  (SP+ ALA -8)
Projected Score: FSU: 19 - ALA: 32 (51)
ALA Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
FSU Travel: 270 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Crimson Tide (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (20 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (39 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.3 - 3.7 (#10)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 Florida State vs New Mexico State-26
Mon 9/7 Florida State vs SMU+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19 Florida State at Alabama+12.5
Sat 9/26 Florida State vs Central Arkansas-31
Sat 10/3 Florida State vs Virginia-2
Fri 10/9 Florida State at Louisville+5.5
Sat 10/17 Florida State at Miami+18
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Florida State vs Clemson-1.5
Sat 11/7 Florida State at Boston College-10
Fri 11/13 Florida State at Pittsburgh+3
Sat 11/21 Florida State vs NC State-3
Fri 11/27 Florida State vs Florida-1

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Alabama's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Alabama vs East Carolina-18.5
Sat 9/12 Alabama at Kentucky-12.5
Sat 9/19 Alabama vs Florida State-12.5
Sat 9/26 Alabama vs South Carolina-11
Sat 10/3 Alabama at Mississippi State-9
Sat 10/10 Alabama vs Georgia+6.5
Sat 10/17 Alabama at Tennessee+0.5
Sat 10/24 Alabama vs Texas A&M+3
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7 Alabama at LSU+2
Sat 11/14 Alabama at Vanderbilt+1.5
Sat 11/21 Alabama vs Chattanooga-41.5
Sat 11/28 Alabama vs Auburn-7.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#22 (.27)46% (32)3350% (10)3.4 (7)21941% (81)2533.95 (46)#68 (.16)42% (76)2242% (66)43% (79)4.12 (110)45.31.61.2
ALA#48 (.2)43% (62)29.540% (103)2.73 (109)10445% (33)2644.04 (38)#27 (.08)38% (23)19.239% (31)38% (33)3.65 (66)39.40.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ALA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense123318.645.9%3.951.6244722192535.255%44%50%41%15%.27
ALA Defense1519.211.437.9%3.651.3 - - - - - 50%48%39%38%18%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense122230.242.1%4.121.2 - - - - - 55%44%42%43%16%.16
ALA Offense1529.539.342.7%4.040.9203681042643.443%56%40%45%14%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State1228:4524.151%57%5.445.31.61.26.12.6029
Alabama1531:3420.342%61%4.539.40.91.35.72.2330.3
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense1255% (32)50% (10)42.1218.85.231 (4).25 (12)3.4 (7)75% (47)9% (59)1.03 (45)
ALA Defense1550% (74)39% (31) - - - - .1 (66)2.81 (53)75% (101)11% (19)1 (91)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense1255% (123)42% (66) - - - - .11 (74)3.12 (106)76% (105)11% (28)0.86 (19)
ALA Offense1543% (118)40% (103)31104.23.421 (99).02 (115)2.73 (109)67% (100)8% (33)0.83 (122)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense1244% (104)41% (81)16.728.3253.4915.220 (33)9 (60).32 (46)1.9 (5)31% (67)38% (10).5 (11)6% (48)2.1 (30)
ALA Defense1548% (60)38% (33) - - - - - - 11 (31).11 (17)1.5 (50)35% (19)28% (46).25 (53)6% (47)2 (72)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense1244% (16)43% (79) - - - - - - 12 (12).25 (69)1.5 (58)30% (104)30% (75).34 (92)5% (122)2 (68)
ALA Offense1556% (15)45% (33)22.934.9263.57.611.532 (2)5 (3).35 (37)1.6 (54)30% (49)33% (30).4 (29)5% (42)2 (72)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 8.15  #31
Florida State's Offense Rating: 15.90  #30
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.75  #37
2026 Talent Rating: 838.00  #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 45%  #17
Florida State's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Florida State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2  #41
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3  #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2  #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 8.15   Alabama: 20.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 7.2   Alabama: 14.8




Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 20.25  #13
Alabama's Offense Rating: 18.92  #18
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.22  #13
2026 Talent Rating: 1016.00  #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 73  #2
Alabama's 2026 Expected Record: 11.3 - 3.7
Alabama's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.8  #20
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2  #36
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.1  #11

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.38
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.6
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Florida State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Alabama 32
Florida State 19

Projected Total Points: 51
Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.4

Alabama's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Florida State31Alabama17Alabama -13.5Florida State50.5Under
201709/02Alabama24Florida State7Alabama -7.5Alabama51.0Under
200709/29Florida State21Alabama14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Alabama110 Overs
Florida State212 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 30 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#31) FSU at (#13) ALA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFSUALA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #31 #13
SP+SP+ #41 #20
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #38 #11
Blue ChipsBC% #17 #2
Florida State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffALA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #32 #23
ExplosiveExp #20 #61
PPAPPA #22 #27
PowerPwr #30 #13
SP+SP+ #54 #11
Pts POPPO #46 #66
HavocHav #54 #26
Florida State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffALA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #31
Run ExplRExp #45 #91
PPAExp #12 #66
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #7 #53
Stuff RateStuff #5 #66
TackleTak - NR
Florida State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffALA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #33
Pass ExplPExl #5 #50
PPAExp #46 #17
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #59 #19
DB HavocDB #48 #47
Alabama on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatALA OffFSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #62 #76
ExplosiveExp #50 #14
PPAPPA #48 #68
PowerPwr #18 #37
SP+SP+ #36 #38
Pts POPPO #38 #110
HavocHav #39 #72
Alabama Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ALA OffFSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #103 #66
Run ExplRExp #122 #19
PPAExp #115 #74
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #109 #106
Stuff RateStuff #109 #120
TackleTak - NR
Alabama Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatALA OffFSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #33 #79
Pass ExplPExl #54 #58
PPAExp #37 #69
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #33 #28
DB HavocDB #42 #122
Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Florida State beat Alabama last year (31-17)

  
FSU's OC Gus Malzahn (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6811957%797326.7
Kevin Sperry121771%1942011.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Gemari Sands (Tr)10546504.437
Ousmane Kromah7240805.723
Samuel Singleton5136047.153
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson561074619.282
Micahi Danzy27571321.166
Desirrio Riles (Tr)28362212.942
Gemari Sands (Tr)4021705.418

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Blake Nichelson437111
Jeremiah Wilson421002
Ma'Khi Jones (Tr)342111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mandrell Desir308711
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Daniel Lyons264240
Rylan Kennedy (Tr)144211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)3130013
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Jeremiah Wilson421002

ALA's OC Ryan Grubb (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Austin Mack243275%228207.1
Keelon Russell111573%143209.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daniel Hill7528463.830
Kevin Riley5922423.822
AK Dear1914037.456
Austin Mack92212.420
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Williams49689414.175
Lotzeir Brooks32441213.853
Noah Rogers (Tr)31413213.348
Daniel Hill2820317.341

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kane Wommack (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brayson Hubbard745218
Caleb Woodson (Tr)573011
Keon Sabb523213
Yhonzae Pierre5215881
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Yhonzae Pierre5215881
Devan Thompkins (Tr)307312
Brayson Hubbard745218
Keon Sabb523213
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brayson Hubbard745218
Zabien Brown393006
Dijon Lee Jr.325005