Florida State at Alabama - 2026 Matchup Preview

Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson Tide

Saturday, September 19th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Bryant Denny Stadium - Tuscaloosa, AL

Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (38 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (19 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#54)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 7) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

FSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Alabama -13.5 (SP+ ALA -8)
Projected Score: FSU: 19 - ALA: 32 (51)
ALA Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
FSU Travel: 270 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Crimson Tide (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (20 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (39 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 3.6 (#22)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FSU Players
ALA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	Florida State vs New Mexico State	-26
Mon 9/7	Florida State vs SMU	+3.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19	Florida State at Alabama	+13.5
Sat 9/26	Florida State vs Central Arkansas	-31.5
Sat 10/3	Florida State vs Virginia	+0.5
Fri 10/9	Florida State at Louisville	+7
Sat 10/17	Florida State at Miami	+19
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31	Florida State vs Clemson	+0.5
Sat 11/7	Florida State at Boston College	-8.5
Fri 11/13	Florida State at Pittsburgh	+4
Sat 11/21	Florida State vs NC State	-2
Fri 11/27	Florida State vs Florida	-1

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 7, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 7, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule

Alabama's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Alabama vs East Carolina	-16
Sat 9/12	Alabama at Kentucky	-12.5
Sat 9/19	Alabama vs Florida State	-13.5
Sat 9/26	Alabama vs South Carolina	-12.5
Sat 10/3	Alabama at Mississippi State	-12.5
Sat 10/10	Alabama vs Georgia	+5
Sat 10/17	Alabama at Tennessee	+2
Sat 10/24	Alabama vs Texas A&M	+2
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7	Alabama at LSU	+2
Sat 11/14	Alabama at Vanderbilt	-0.5
Sat 11/21	Alabama vs Chattanooga	-42.5
Sat 11/28	Alabama vs Auburn	-6.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU	#22 (.27)	46% (32)	33	50% (10)	3.4 (7)	219	41% (81)	253	3.95 (46)	#68 (.16)	42% (76)	22	42% (66)	43% (79)	4.12 (110)	45.3	1.6	1.2
ALA	#48 (.2)	43% (62)	29.5	40% (103)	2.73 (109)	104	45% (33)	264	4.04 (38)	#27 (.08)	38% (23)	19.2	39% (31)	38% (33)	3.65 (66)	39.4	0.9	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ALA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Offense	12	33	18.6	45.9%	3.95	1.6	24	472	219	253	5.2	55%	44%	50%	41%	15%	.27
ALA Defense	15	19.2	11.4	37.9%	3.65	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	39%	38%	18%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Defense	12	22	30.2	42.1%	4.12	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	42%	43%	16%	.16
ALA Offense	15	29.5	39.3	42.7%	4.04	0.9	20	368	104	264	3.4	43%	56%	40%	45%	14%	.2

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida State	12	28:45	24.1	51%	57%	5.4	45.3	1.6	1.2	6.1	2.6	0	29
Alabama	15	31:34	20.3	42%	61%	4.5	39.4	0.9	1.3	5.7	2.2	3	30.3

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Offense	12	55% (32)	50% (10)	42.1	218.8	5.2	31 (4)	.25 (12)	3.4 (7)	75% (47)	9% (59)	1.03 (45)
ALA Defense	15	50% (74)	39% (31)	-	-	-	-	.1 (66)	2.81 (53)	75% (101)	11% (19)	1 (91)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Defense	12	55% (123)	42% (66)	-	-	-	-	.11 (74)	3.12 (106)	76% (105)	11% (28)	0.86 (19)
ALA Offense	15	43% (118)	40% (103)	31	104.2	3.4	21 (99)	.02 (115)	2.73 (109)	67% (100)	8% (33)	0.83 (122)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Offense	12	44% (104)	41% (81)	16.7	28.3	253.4	9	15.2	20 (33)	9 (60)	.32 (46)	1.9 (5)	31% (67)	38% (10)	.5 (11)	6% (48)	2.1 (30)
ALA Defense	15	48% (60)	38% (33)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (31)	.11 (17)	1.5 (50)	35% (19)	28% (46)	.25 (53)	6% (47)	2 (72)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Defense	12	44% (16)	43% (79)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (12)	.25 (69)	1.5 (58)	30% (104)	30% (75)	.34 (92)	5% (122)	2 (68)
ALA Offense	15	56% (15)	45% (33)	22.9	34.9	263.5	7.6	11.5	32 (2)	5 (3)	.35 (37)	1.6 (54)	30% (49)	33% (30)	.4 (29)	5% (42)	2 (72)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 9.08 #42
Florida State's Offense Rating: 15.77 #45
Florida State's Defense Rating: 11.69 #39
2026 Talent Rating: 950.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 36% #17
Florida State's 2026 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Florida State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #41
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2 #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 9.08 Alabama: 21.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 7.2 Alabama: 14.8

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 21.7 #15
Alabama's Offense Rating: 20.84 #19
Alabama's Defense Rating: 2.24 #12
2026 Talent Rating: 1052.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 60 #6
Alabama's 2026 Expected Record: 8.4 - 3.6
Alabama's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.8 #20
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #11

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.6
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Florida State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Alabama 32
Florida State 19

Projected Total Points: 51

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.4

Alabama's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/30	Florida State	31	Alabama	17	Alabama -13.5	Florida State	50.5	Under
2017	09/02	Alabama	24	Florida State	7	Alabama -7.5	Alabama	51.0	Under
2007	09/29	Florida State	21	Alabama	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Alabama	1	1	0 Overs
Florida State	2	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#42) FSU at (#15) ALA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FSU	ALA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#42	#15
SP+SP+	#41	#20
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#24	#8
Blue ChipsBC%	#17	#6

Florida State Notes(2/14) Vibes: Lowest in 40+ years, Norvell era failing
(2/16) OL none back. 5 portals that started 12 games LY
(2/2) OC Gus Malzahn retiring, Tim Harris now OC (WR)
(2/2) Word is Norvell will call plays in '26
(2/1) QB: A Daniels (Aub) starter? DeNobile (FCS)?
(2/1) RB has options. Wisner (Tx) added, Kromah back
(2/1) WR Robinson & Danzy great duo. Depth v young
(2/1) DL has some good parts + 2 exp'd portal adds
(2/1) LBs have one starter back and lots of questions
(2/1) DBs rebuild. 5 portal adds. Talent here but ?
Florida State Injury Report

Alabama Notes(2/14) Vibes: Shaky, '25 finish, new reality, talent down
(3/4) DBs one of the best units in CFB, deep & talented
(2/7) Least hyped Bama team since before Saban
(1/28) Lost 19 portals that went to P4 schools
(1/28) DeBoer a really good coach, is that enough?
(1/28) QB battle? Austin Mack vs phenom Keelon Russell
(1/28) RBs bad LY, lots of talent but no portal adds?
(1/28) WR L Brooks came on LY, Williams? Rogers added
(1/28) OL only 2 clear starters, 5/6 portal adds inexp'd
(1/28) Portal on lines: IN: 2 OL+5 DL, OUT: 7 OL+6 DL
(1/28) Portaled DTs w good exp but LB's/DE's needed
Alabama Injury Report

Florida State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	ALA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#32	#23
ExplosiveExp	#20	#61
PPAPPA	#22	#27
PowerPwr	#45	#12
SP+SP+	#54	#11
Pts POPPO	#46	#66
HavocHav	#54	#26

Florida State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	ALA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#31
Run ExplRExp	#45	#91
PPAExp	#12	#66
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#7	#53
Stuff RateStuff	#5	#66
TackleTak	-	NR

Florida State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	ALA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#81	#33
Pass ExplPExl	#5	#50
PPAExp	#46	#17
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#59	#19
DB HavocDB	#48	#47

Alabama on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	FSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#62	#76
ExplosiveExp	#50	#14
PPAPPA	#48	#68
PowerPwr	#19	#39
SP+SP+	#36	#38
Pts POPPO	#38	#110
HavocHav	#39	#72

Alabama Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#103	#66
Run ExplRExp	#122	#19
PPAExp	#115	#74
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#109	#106
Stuff RateStuff	#109	#120
TackleTak	-	NR

Alabama Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#33	#79
Pass ExplPExl	#54	#58
PPAExp	#37	#69
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#33	#28
DB HavocDB	#42	#122

Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Florida State beat Alabama last year (31-17)

FSU's OC Tim Harris (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dean DeNobile (Tr)	223	347	64%	2528	19	7	7.3
Ashton Daniels (Tr)	68	119	57%	797	3	2	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Wisner	131	597	3	4.6	48
Gemari Sands (Tr)	105	465	0	4.4	37
Ousmane Kromah	72	408	0	5.7	23
Samuel Singleton	51	360	4	7.1	53

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Duce Robinson	56	1074	6	19.2	82
Micahi Danzy	27	571	3	21.1	66
Desirrio Riles (Tr)	28	362	2	12.9	42
Gemari Sands (Tr)	40	217	0	5.4	18

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Jones (Tr)	132	10	4	0	2
Ashlynd Barker	48	5	4	1	2
Blake Nichelson	43	7	1	1	1
Ja'Bril Rawls	40	2	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mandrell Desir	30	8	7	1	1
Chris Jones (Tr)	132	10	4	0	2
Ashlynd Barker	48	5	4	1	2
Rylan Kennedy (Tr)	14	4	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)	31	3	0	13
Chris Jones (Tr)	132	10	4	2
Ja'Bril Rawls	40	2	0	2

ALA's OC Ryan Grubb (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Austin Mack	24	32	75%	228	2	0	7.1
Keelon Russell	11	15	73%	143	2	0	9.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daniel Hill	75	284	6	3.8	30
Kevin Riley	59	224	2	3.8	22
AK Dear	19	140	3	7.4	56
Austin Mack	9	22	1	2.4	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ryan Williams	49	689	4	14.1	75
Lotzeir Brooks	32	441	2	13.8	53
Noah Rogers (Tr)	31	413	2	13.3	48
Daniel Hill	28	203	1	7.3	41

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kane Wommack (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brayson Hubbard	74	5	2	1	8
Caleb Woodson (Tr)	57	3	0	1	1
Yhonzae Pierre	52	15	8	8	1
Keon Sabb	52	3	2	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Yhonzae Pierre	52	15	8	8	1
Devan Thompkins (Tr)	30	7	3	1	2
Brayson Hubbard	74	5	2	1	8
Keon Sabb	52	3	2	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brayson Hubbard	74	5	2	1	8
Zabien Brown	39	3	0	0	6
Dijon Lee Jr.	32	5	0	0	5