App State at NC State - 2026 Matchup Preview

App State Mountaineers at NC State Wolfpack

Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Carter-Finley Stadium - Raleigh, NC

Mountaineers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dowell Loggains (5 - 8)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (22 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#94)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NCST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: NC State -21.5 (SP+ NCST -16)
Projected Score: APP: 18 - NCST: 39 (57)
NCST Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
APP Travel: 168 miles

Wolfpack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (95 - 70)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (35 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 3.9 (#32)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
APP Players
NCST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

App State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/12	App State at East Carolina	+19
Sat 9/19	App State vs Charlotte	-12.5
Sat 9/26	App State at NC State	+21.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for App State's Schedule

NC State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	NC State vs Virginia	+5
Sat 9/12	NC State vs Richmond	-32
Sat 9/19	NC State at Vanderbilt	+10
Sat 9/26	NC State vs App State	-21.5
Sat 10/3	NC State vs Louisville	+2
Sat 10/10	NC State vs Wake Forest	-3.5
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/23	NC State at Stanford	-10.5
Fri 10/30	NC State vs California	-8
Fri 11/6	NC State vs Duke	-4
Sat 11/14	NC State vs Syracuse	-15.5
Sat 11/21	NC State at Florida State	+2
Sat 11/28	NC State at North Carolina	-6.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	#101 (.12)	42% (72)	24.2	44% (65)	3.03 (56)	128	41% (76)	257	3.5 (91)	#83 (.18)	45% (116)	29.8	46% (108)	46% (115)	4.24 (121)	62.8	1.7	1.5
NCST	#20 (.28)	44% (50)	30.2	44% (64)	2.94 (68)	147	44% (44)	246	4.69 (8)	#102 (.21)	39% (39)	27.2	38% (19)	40% (55)	3.7 (72)	53.8	1	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NCST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Offense	13	24.2	21.6	42%	3.5	1.7	21	385	128	257	4.1	43%	55%	44%	41%	17%	.12
NCST Defense	13	27.2	21	39.2%	3.7	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	38%	40%	15%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Defense	13	29.8	37.4	45.2%	4.24	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	46%	46%	17%	.18
NCST Offense	13	30.2	35.3	43.8%	4.69	1	20	393	147	246	4.5	47%	51%	44%	44%	16%	.28

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
App State	13	28:17	21.1	33%	63%	6.8	62.8	1.7	1.5	5.8	2.2	1	28
NC State	13	29:56	20.4	41%	50%	5.5	53.8	1	1.2	5.1	1.5	1	27.9

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Offense	13	43% (117)	44% (65)	31.5	128.4	4.1	12 (99)	.08 (84)	3.03 (56)	69% (91)	8% (27)	0.79 (132)
NCST Defense	13	43% (6)	38% (19)	-	-	-	-	.12 (80)	2.87 (64)	65% (25)	8% (109)	1.09 (124)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Defense	13	46% (20)	46% (108)	-	-	-	-	.08 (59)	2.86 (61)	69% (54)	10% (65)	0.83 (10)
NCST Offense	13	47% (86)	44% (64)	32.5	147.1	4.5	27 (40)	.19 (33)	2.94 (68)	73% (61)	10% (98)	1.1 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Offense	13	55% (22)	41% (76)	23	39.1	256.5	6.6	11.2	23 (33)	15 (108)	.21 (90)	1.5 (84)	32% (88)	33% (36)	.31 (68)	9% (133)	1.9 (116)
NCST Defense	13	56% (134)	40% (55)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (75)	.3 (90)	1.7 (117)	35% (21)	31% (91)	.38 (111)	7% (46)	2.1 (83)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Defense	13	52% (117)	46% (115)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (22)	.31 (95)	1.5 (47)	31% (70)	33% (107)	.37 (104)	7% (36)	2.1 (97)
NCST Offense	13	51% (49)	44% (44)	21.5	31.8	245.7	7.7	11.4	26 (33)	10 (119)	.39 (25)	1.6 (33)	31% (65)	32% (49)	.4 (32)	6% (51)	2.1 (53)

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: -9.61 #113
App State's Offense Rating: 5.64 #115
App State's Defense Rating: 20.25 #104
2026 Talent Rating: 676.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #73
App State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
App State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.4 #111
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #122

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 538.15
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
App State: -9.61 NC State: 10.935

SP+ Ratings Matchup
App State: -11.4 NC State: 4.8

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 10.935 #30
NC State's Offense Rating: 20.62 #21
NC State's Defense Rating: 13.55 #51
2026 Talent Rating: 918.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #57
NC State's 2026 Expected Record: 8.1 - 3.9
NC State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8 #55
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #45
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

App State Scoring
Offense: 24.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

App State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
NC State 39
App State 18

Projected Total Points: 57

NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.3
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

NC State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2006	09/02	NC State	23	App State	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
NC State	1	0	0 Overs
App State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#113) APP at (#30) NCST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	APP	NCST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#113	#30
SP+SP+	#111	#55
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#81	#30
Blue ChipsBC%	#73	#57

App State Notes(2/24) Year 2 of Loggains era after bad first season
(2/24) QB1 has limited exp (Ark, PU) but is very mobile
(2/24) RB Lewis had good Fr year, added good depth too
(2/24) WR a ?, counting on FCS portals + depth
(2/24) OL a ?, 2 have starter exp, 4 portals have little
(2/24) Def was a disaster LY, can 18 portals stable things?
(2/24) DL added 3 portals and 6 croots to help
(2/24) DBs added 11 portals, should improve here
(2/24) Clearly building w portals + croots, we'll see
App State Injury Report

NC State Notes(2/17) Vibes: Unclear. Good but Doeren era feels stale
(2/6) QB Bailey back is big, depth behind him is ?
(2/6) RB Scott (#2 LY) back after good Fr yr, depth ?
(2/6) WR sneaky good portal class of 5, esp Snow (Buf)
(2/6) OL returns 4 w starting exp, 2 portals. Decent
(2/6) DT has some exp, DE/LB has more but not sold
(2/6) DBs have options, CB has more ?, S looks good
NC State Injury Report

App State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	APP Off	NCST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#72	#39
ExplosiveExp	#107	#134
PPAPPA	#101	#102
PowerPwr	#115	#51
SP+SP+	#100	#64
Pts POPPO	#91	#72
HavocHav	#94	#86

App State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	APP Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#65	#19
Run ExplRExp	#132	#124
PPAExp	#84	#80
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#56	#64
Stuff RateStuff	#29	#65
TackleTak	-	NR

App State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	APP Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#76	#55
Pass ExplPExl	#84	#117
PPAExp	#90	#90
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#27	#109
DB HavocDB	#133	#46

NC State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	APP Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#50	#116
ExplosiveExp	#13	#34
PPAPPA	#20	#83
PowerPwr	#21	#104
SP+SP+	#45	#122
Pts POPPO	#8	#121
HavocHav	#74	#52

NC State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	APP Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#64	#108
Run ExplRExp	#19	#10
PPAExp	#33	#59
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#68	#61
Stuff RateStuff	#112	#87
TackleTak	-	NR

NC State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	APP Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#44	#115
Pass ExplPExl	#33	#47
PPAExp	#25	#95
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#98	#65
DB HavocDB	#51	#36

Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

APP 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'26 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

APP's OC Dowell Loggains (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Malachi Singleton (Tr)	38	64	59%	439	5	2	6.9
Noah Gillon	17	39	44%	175	0	2	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaquari Lewis	140	618	6	4.4	27
Malachi Singleton (Tr)	49	202	1	4.1	40
J'Marion Burnette (Tr)	28	82	0	2.9	12
Juan Berchal	1	22	0	22.0	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chris Lofton (Tr)	55	917	4	16.7	67
Sam Pickett III (Tr)	33	450	2	13.6	77
Darrin Fugitt (Tr)	32	341	2	10.7	37
Sam Mbake	24	207	1	8.6	24

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC D. J. Smith (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colton Phares	101	10	2	2	3
Cary Grant (Tr)	45	3	0	0	0
Aiden Benton	38	5	5	8	0
Keshawn Thomas (Tr)	37	5	3	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aiden Benton	38	5	5	8	0
Caleb Sandstrom	22	4	4	3	2
Keshawn Thomas (Tr)	37	5	3	1	1
Colton Phares	101	10	2	2	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colton Phares	101	10	2	2	3
Juan Berchal	10	1	0	0	3
Dylan Hasz	32	2	1	1	3

NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Bailey	273	397	69%	3105	25	9	7.8
Will Wilson	3	5	60%	16	0	1	3.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jayden Scott	106	595	4	5.6	69
Davion Gause (Tr)	61	258	3	4.2	25
CJ Bailey	89	215	6	2.4	30
Will Wilson	43	146	10	3.4	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Victor Snow (Tr)	62	815	8	13.1	75
Davion Dozier (Tr)	20	448	5	22.4	68
Tyran Warren (Tr)	24	442	4	18.4	74
Teddy Hoffmann	25	349	3	14.0	55

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Asaad Brown Jr.	64	0	0	0	2
King Mack (Tr)	58	1	1	1	3
Ronnie Royal III	49	2	0	0	1
Jackson Vick	45	2	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Harvey Dyson III	31	10	7	0	1
Chase Bond	11	6	2	2	0
Joseph Adedire	6	2	1	0	0
King Mack (Tr)	58	1	1	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brian Nelson II	29	1	0	0	6
Jackson Vick	45	2	0	0	6
King Mack (Tr)	58	1	1	1	3