Central Arkansas at Florida State - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Central Arkansas Bears at Florida State Seminoles

Florida State logo
Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Field at Doak Campbell Stadium - Tallahassee, FL

 
Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 6 - 61 (6 - 61 on Road)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Florida State -10.5  (SP+ FSU -7)
FSU Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (38 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (43 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#54)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 7) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Central Arkansas's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/26 Central Arkansas at Florida State+10.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Central Arkansas's Schedule
Florida State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 Florida State vs New Mexico State-26
Mon 9/7 Florida State vs SMU+3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19 Florida State at Alabama+13.5
Sat 9/26 Florida State vs Central Arkansas-31.5
Sat 10/3 Florida State vs Virginia+0.5
Fri 10/9 Florida State at Louisville+7
Sat 10/17 Florida State at Miami+19
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Florida State vs Clemson+0.5
Sat 11/7 Florida State at Boston College-8.5
Fri 11/13 Florida State at Pittsburgh+4
Sat 11/21 Florida State vs NC State-2
Fri 11/27 Florida State vs Florida-1

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 7, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 7, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCA0%60%000%000%610%0%0000
FSU#22 (.27)46% (32)3350% (10)3.4 (7)21941% (81)2533.95 (46)#68 (.16)42% (76)2242% (66)43% (79)4.12 (110)45.31.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCA Offense1660%00000000%0%0%0%0%
FSU Defense122216.142.1%4.121.2 - - - - - 55%44%42%43%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCA Defense161610%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
FSU Offense123343.345.9%3.951.6244722192535.255%44%50%41%15%.27

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Central Arkansas10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Florida State1228:4524.151%57%5.445.31.61.26.12.6029
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCA Offense10%0%000000%0%0
FSU Defense1255% (123)42% (66) - - - - .11 (74)3.12 (106)76% (105)11% (28)0.86 (19)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCA Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
FSU Offense1255% (32)50% (10)42.1218.85.231 (4).25 (12)3.4 (7)75% (47)9% (59)1.03 (45)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCA Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
FSU Defense1244% (16)43% (79) - - - - - - 12 (12).25 (69)1.5 (58)30% (104)30% (75).34 (92)5% (122)2 (68)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCA Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
FSU Offense1244% (104)41% (81)16.728.3253.4915.220 (33)9 (60).32 (46)1.9 (5)31% (67)38% (10).5 (11)6% (48)2.1 (30)

Central Arkansas's Power Ratings
Central Arkansas's Power Rating: NR
Central Arkansas's Offense Rating: NR
Central Arkansas's Defense Rating: NR
2026 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Central Arkansas's 2026 Expected Record: -
Central Arkansas's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Central Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Central Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Atlantic Sun Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Central Arkansas:    Florida State: 10.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Central Arkansas:    Florida State: 7.2




Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 10.64  #42
Florida State's Offense Rating: 15.77  #45
Florida State's Defense Rating: 11.69  #39
2026 Talent Rating: 950.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 36  #17
Florida State's 2026 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Florida State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2  #41
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3  #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2  #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


Central Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 6 PPG
Offense on Road: 6
Defense: 61 PPG
Defense on Road: 61

Central Arkansas's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Florida State 37
Central Arkansas 26

Projected Total Points: 63
Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Florida State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida State000 Overs
Central Arkansas000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#) UCA at (#42) FSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUCAFSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNR #42
SP+SP+NR #41
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTalNR #24
Blue ChipsBC%NR #17
Florida State Notes
(2/14) Vibes: Lowest in 40+ years, Norvell era failing
(2/16) OL none back. 5 portals that started 12 games LY
(2/2) OC Gus Malzahn retiring, Tim Harris now OC (WR)
(2/2) Word is Norvell will call plays in '26
(2/1) QB: A Daniels (Aub) starter? DeNobile (FCS)?
(2/1) RB has options. Wisner (Tx) added, Kromah back
(2/1) WR Robinson & Danzy great duo. Depth v young
(2/1) DL has some good parts + 2 exp'd portal adds
(2/1) LBs have one starter back and lots of questions
(2/1) DBs rebuild. 5 portal adds. Talent here but ?
Florida State Injury Report
Central Arkansas on Offense
CategoryCat
UCA OffFSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNR #76
ExplosiveExpNR #14
PPAPPANR #68
PowerPwrNR #39
SP+SP+NR #38
Pts POPPONR #110
HavocHavNR #72
Central Arkansas Run Game
CategoryCat
UCA OffFSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNR #66
Run ExplRExpNR #19
PPAExpNR #74
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #106
Stuff RateStuffNR #120
TackleTak - NR
Central Arkansas Pass Game
CategoryCat
UCA OffFSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNR #79
Pass ExplPExlNR #58
PPAExpNR #69
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NR #28
DB HavocDBNR #122
Florida State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatFSU OffUCA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #32NR
ExplosiveExp #20NR
PPAPPA #22NR
PowerPwr #45NR
SP+SP+ #54NR
Pts POPPO #46NR
HavocHav #54NR
Florida State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffUCA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #10NR
Run ExplRExp #45NR
PPAExp #12NR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #7NR
Stuff RateStuff #5NR
TackleTak - NR
Florida State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatFSU OffUCA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #81NR
Pass ExplPExl #5NR
PPAExp #46NR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #59NR
DB HavocDB #48NR
Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

UCA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
UCA's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luther Richesson619862%726637.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Chapman McKown4622614.918
Luther Richesson529211.830
Jalen Washington178214.815
James Jointer5801.63
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chapman McKown93303.79
Kamron Bibby221010.519
Jalen Washington2804.04
James Jointer1-40-4.0-4

View Central Arkansas's Full Roster

UCA's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mari Smith00001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mari Smith00001
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mari Smith00001

FSU's OC Tim Harris (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dean DeNobile (Tr)22334764%25281977.3
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6811957%797326.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Gemari Sands (Tr)10546504.437
Ousmane Kromah7240805.723
Samuel Singleton5136047.153
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson561074619.282
Micahi Danzy27571321.166
Desirrio Riles (Tr)28362212.942
Gemari Sands (Tr)4021705.418

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ashlynd Barker485412
Blake Nichelson437111
Ja'Bril Rawls402002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mandrell Desir308711
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ashlynd Barker485412
Rylan Kennedy (Tr)144211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)3130013
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ja'Bril Rawls402002