Florida State at Miami - 2026 Matchup Preview
Florida State logo Florida State Seminoles at Miami HurricanesMiami logo
Saturday, October 17th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL

 
Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (38 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (19 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
FSU 2nd straight Road Game
MIAMI coming off BYE
FSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Miami -18  (SP+ MIAMI -14)
Projected Score: FSU: 16 - MIAMI: 34 (50)
MIAMI Win prob: 91% | Cover: 49%
FSU Travel: 396 miles
Hurricanes (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (35 - 19)
Avg Score : 31 - 15 (36 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 2.5 (#15)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 Florida State vs New Mexico State-26
Mon 9/7 Florida State vs SMU+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19 Florida State at Alabama+12.5
Sat 9/26 Florida State vs Central Arkansas-31
Sat 10/3 Florida State vs Virginia-2
Fri 10/9 Florida State at Louisville+5.5
Sat 10/17 Florida State at Miami+18
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Florida State vs Clemson-1.5
Sat 11/7 Florida State at Boston College-10
Fri 11/13 Florida State at Pittsburgh+3
Sat 11/21 Florida State vs NC State-3
Fri 11/27 Florida State vs Florida-1

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Miami's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/4 Miami at Stanford-26
Thu 9/10 Miami vs Florida A&M-47
Fri 9/18 Miami at Wake Forest-15
Sat 9/26 Miami vs Central Michigan-35.5
Sat 10/3 Miami at Clemson-12
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 Miami vs Florida State-18
Sat 10/24 Miami vs Pittsburgh-17.5
Sat 10/31 Miami at North Carolina-22
Sat 11/7 Miami at Notre Dame+6
Sat 11/14 Miami vs Duke-21.5
Fri 11/20 Miami vs Virginia Tech-28
Sat 11/28 Miami vs Boston College-30.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#22 (.27)46% (32)3350% (10)3.4 (7)21941% (81)2533.95 (46)#68 (.16)42% (76)2242% (66)43% (79)4.12 (110)45.31.61.2
MIAMI#35 (.22)46% (23)30.945% (58)3.13 (35)14549% (10)2394.36 (24)#14 (.05)37% (15)14.836% (10)38% (28)2.51 (5)53.50.91.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense123318.645.9%3.951.6244722192535.255%44%50%41%15%.27
MIAMI Defense1614.811.836.6%2.511.6 - - - - - 43%55%36%38%19%.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense122230.242.1%4.121.2 - - - - - 55%44%42%43%16%.16
MIAMI Offense1630.936.146.4%4.360.9213841452394.350%48%45%49%12%.22

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State1228:4524.151%57%5.445.31.61.26.12.6029
Miami1631:3520.948%67%6.653.50.91.662.9330.2
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense1255% (32)50% (10)42.1218.85.231 (4).25 (12)3.4 (7)75% (47)9% (59)1.03 (45)
MIAMI Defense1643% (4)36% (10) - - - - .01 (16)2.58 (14)73% (80)12% (15)1.01 (94)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense1255% (123)42% (66) - - - - .11 (74)3.12 (106)76% (105)11% (28)0.86 (19)
MIAMI Offense1650% (62)45% (58)33.9144.94.326 (40).09 (76)3.13 (35)83% (4)6% (4)0.8 (128)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense1244% (104)41% (81)16.728.3253.4915.220 (33)9 (60).32 (46)1.9 (5)31% (67)38% (10).5 (11)6% (48)2.1 (30)
MIAMI Defense1655% (131)38% (28) - - - - - - 16 (55).13 (21)1.5 (29)36% (13)28% (50).21 (29)7% (15)1.9 (29)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense1244% (16)43% (79) - - - - - - 12 (12).25 (69)1.5 (58)30% (104)30% (75).34 (92)5% (122)2 (68)
MIAMI Offense1648% (79)49% (10)2129238.78.211.431 (61)11 (108).43 (13)1.5 (88)26% (8)32% (44).37 (42)6% (65)2.1 (59)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 8.15  #31
Florida State's Offense Rating: 15.90  #30
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.75  #37
2026 Talent Rating: 838.00  #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 45%  #17
Florida State's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Florida State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2  #41
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3  #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2  #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 8.15   Miami: 25.855

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 7.2   Miami: 20.7




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 25.855  #5
Miami's Offense Rating: 22.96  #9
Miami's Defense Rating: 1.95  #6
2026 Talent Rating: 1036.00  #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 55  #9
Miami's 2026 Expected Record: 10.5 - 2.5
Miami's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.7  #9
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #22
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3  #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.6
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Florida State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 34
Florida State 16

Projected Total Points: 50
Miami Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.1
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.8

Miami's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Florida State22Miami28Miami -3.5Miami54.5Under
202410/26Miami36Florida State14Miami -22.5Florida State55.0Under
202311/11Florida State27Miami20Florida State -14.5Miami50.5Under
202211/05Miami3Florida State45Florida State -6.5Florida State54.0Under
202111/13Florida State31Miami28Miami -2.5Florida State61.5Under
202009/26Miami52Florida State10Miami -12.5Miami54.0Over
201911/02Florida State10Miami27Florida State -3Miami50.0Under
201810/06Miami28Florida State27Miami -14Florida State48.5Over
201710/07Florida State20Miami24Miami -3Miami45.5Under
201610/08Miami19Florida State20Miami -1.5Florida State61.5Under
201510/10Florida State29Miami24Florida State -9Miami54.0Under
201411/15Miami26Florida State30Florida State -2.5Florida State0
201311/02Florida State41Miami14Florida State -21Florida State0
201210/20Miami20Florida State33
201111/12Florida State23Miami19
201010/09Miami17Florida State45
200909/07Florida State34Miami38
200810/04Miami39Florida State41
200710/20Florida State29Miami37
200609/04Miami10Florida State13
200509/05Florida State10Miami7
200409/10Miami16Florida State10
200301/01Florida State14Miami16
200310/11Florida State14Miami22
200210/12Miami28Florida State27
200110/13Florida State27Miami49
200010/06Miami27Florida State24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami1462 Overs
Florida State1379 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 153 - 102 - 61 - 4
Road Teams15 - 1210 - 34 - 16 - 2

(#31) FSU at (#5) MIAMI
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFSUMIAMI
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #31 #5
SP+SP+ #41 #9
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #38 #7
Blue ChipsBC% #17 #9
Florida State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffMIAMI Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #32 #15
ExplosiveExp #20 #81
PPAPPA #22 #14
PowerPwr #30 #6
SP+SP+ #54 #7
Pts POPPO #46 #5
HavocHav #54 #13
Florida State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #10
Run ExplRExp #45 #94
PPAExp #12 #16
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #7 #14
Stuff RateStuff #5 #49
TackleTak - NR
Florida State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #28
Pass ExplPExl #5 #29
PPAExp #46 #21
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #59 #15
DB HavocDB #48 #15
Miami on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffFSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #23 #76
ExplosiveExp #126 #14
PPAPPA #35 #68
PowerPwr #9 #37
SP+SP+ #22 #38
Pts POPPO #24 #110
HavocHav #13 #72
Miami Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffFSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #58 #66
Run ExplRExp #128 #19
PPAExp #76 #74
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #35 #106
Stuff RateStuff #16 #120
TackleTak - NR
Miami Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffFSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #10 #79
Pass ExplPExl #88 #58
PPAExp #13 #69
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #4 #28
DB HavocDB #65 #122
Program Comparison
MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Miami beat Florida State last year (28-22)
Miami beat Florida State in 2024 (36-14)
Florida State beat Miami in 2023 (27-20)

  
FSU's OC Gus Malzahn (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6811957%797326.7
Kevin Sperry121771%1942011.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Gemari Sands (Tr)10546504.437
Ousmane Kromah7240805.723
Samuel Singleton5136047.153
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson561074619.282
Micahi Danzy27571321.166
Desirrio Riles (Tr)28362212.942
Gemari Sands (Tr)4021705.418

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Blake Nichelson437111
Jeremiah Wilson421002
Ma'Khi Jones (Tr)342111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mandrell Desir308711
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Daniel Lyons264240
Rylan Kennedy (Tr)144211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)3130013
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Jeremiah Wilson421002

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah33450067%39733467.9
Malachi Toney4757%822011.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.2161192125.557
CharMar Brown12246073.813
Girard Pringle Jr.6237546.038
Malachi Toney2311314.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney10912111011.161
Vandrevious Jacobs32548417.174
Cam Vaughn (Tr)35540415.446
Elija Lofton2321839.529

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mohamed Toure843216
Omar Thornton (Tr)828211
Zechariah Poyser683115
Xavier Lucas452118
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damon Wilson Jr.2299132
Ahmad Moten319540
Marquise Lightfoot256361
Armondo Blount173361
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Lucas452118
OJ Frederique Jr.190007
Mohamed Toure843216