Florida at Florida State - 2026 Matchup Preview
Florida logo Florida Gators at Florida State SeminolesFlorida State logo
Friday, November 27th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Field at Doak Campbell Stadium - Tallahassee, FL

 
Gators (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (13 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#96)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
FSU 2nd straight Home Game
FSU is playing their 5th straight game
FLA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Florida State -1  (SP+ FSU -4)
Projected Score: FLA: 25 - FSU: 26 (51)
FSU Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
FLA Travel: 129 miles
Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (38 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (43 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Florida vs Florida Atlantic-22
Sat 9/12 Florida vs Campbell-33
Sat 9/19 Florida at Auburn+6
Sat 9/26 Florida vs Ole Miss+8.5
Sat 10/3 Florida at Missouri+10.5
Sat 10/10 Florida vs South Carolina-2.5
Sat 10/17 Florida at Texas+14.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Florida at Georgia+19.5
Sat 11/7 Florida vs Oklahoma+8
Sat 11/14 Florida at Kentucky-4
Sat 11/21 Florida vs Vanderbilt+4.5
Fri 11/27 Florida at Florida State+1

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Florida State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 Florida State vs New Mexico State-26
Mon 9/7 Florida State vs SMU+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19 Florida State at Alabama+12.5
Sat 9/26 Florida State vs Central Arkansas-31
Sat 10/3 Florida State vs Virginia-2
Fri 10/9 Florida State at Louisville+5.5
Sat 10/17 Florida State at Miami+18
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Florida State vs Clemson-1.5
Sat 11/7 Florida State at Boston College-10
Fri 11/13 Florida State at Pittsburgh+3
Sat 11/21 Florida State vs NC State-3
Fri 11/27 Florida State vs Florida-1

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#87 (.14)42% (83)21.647% (36)3.26 (18)13738% (112)2054 (41)#84 (.18)43% (90)2443% (71)44% (109)3.46 (53)43.71.51.4
FSU#22 (.27)46% (32)3350% (10)3.4 (7)21941% (81)2533.95 (46)#68 (.16)42% (76)2242% (66)43% (79)4.12 (110)45.31.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Offense1221.61341.6%41.5193411372054.347%52%47%38%15%.14
FSU Defense122216.142.1%4.121.2 - - - - - 55%44%42%43%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Defense122430.443.3%3.461.4 - - - - - 53%45%43%44%15%.18
FSU Offense123343.345.9%3.951.6244722192535.255%44%50%41%15%.27

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida1229:461934%42%5.143.71.51.452.1027.7
Florida State1228:4524.151%57%5.445.31.61.26.12.6029
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Offense1247% (87)47% (36)32136.84.310 (122).14 (55)3.26 (18)76% (42)10% (74)0.8 (129)
FSU Defense1255% (123)42% (66) - - - - .11 (74)3.12 (106)76% (105)11% (28)0.86 (19)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Defense1253% (106)43% (71) - - - - .08 (57)2.79 (50)79% (115)9% (86)0.93 (52)
FSU Offense1255% (32)50% (10)42.1218.85.231 (4).25 (12)3.4 (7)75% (47)9% (59)1.03 (45)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Offense1252% (41)38% (112)19.531.2204.66.610.518 (61)14 (127).17 (110)1.5 (82)30% (42)27% (103).24 (93)6% (55)1.9 (97)
FSU Defense1244% (16)43% (79) - - - - - - 12 (12).25 (69)1.5 (58)30% (104)30% (75).34 (92)5% (122)2 (68)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Defense1245% (27)44% (109) - - - - - - 10 (38).3 (94)1.6 (86)31% (86)28% (48).3 (72)5% (90)2.3 (131)
FSU Offense1244% (104)41% (81)16.728.3253.4915.220 (33)9 (60).32 (46)1.9 (5)31% (67)38% (10).5 (11)6% (48)2.1 (30)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 15.32  #19
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.17  #24
Florida's Defense Rating: 6.85  #14
2026 Talent Rating: 982.00  #14
Blue Chip Ratio: 52%  #12
Florida's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Florida's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5  #63
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #89
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6  #43

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.38
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 15.32   Florida State: 10.175

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 3.5   Florida State: 7.2




Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 10.175  #31
Florida State's Offense Rating: 15.90  #30
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.75  #37
2026 Talent Rating: 838.00  #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 45  #17
Florida State's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Florida State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2  #41
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3  #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2  #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.4

Florida's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Florida State 26
Florida 25

Projected Total Points: 51
Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Florida State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Florida40Florida State21Florida State -1.5Florida48.5Over
202411/30Florida State11Florida31Florida -17.5Florida45.5Under
202311/25Florida15Florida State24Florida State -6Florida State51.0Under
202211/25Florida State45Florida38Florida State -10Florida58.5Over
202111/27Florida24Florida State21Florida -4Florida State58.5Under
201911/30Florida40Florida State17Florida -16.5Florida55.0Over
201811/24Florida State14Florida41Florida -8.5Florida52.0Over
201711/25Florida22Florida State38Florida State -4.5Florida State43.0Over
201611/26Florida State31Florida13Florida State -5Florida State47.0Under
201511/28Florida2Florida State27Florida -3Florida State44.0Under
201411/29Florida State24Florida19Florida State -10Florida0
201311/30Florida7Florida State37Florida State -26Florida State0
201211/24Florida State26Florida37
201111/26Florida7Florida State21
201011/27Florida State31Florida7
200911/28Florida37Florida State10
200811/29Florida State15Florida45
200711/24Florida45Florida State12
200611/25Florida State14Florida21
200511/26Florida34Florida State7
200411/20Florida State13Florida20
200311/29Florida34Florida State38
200111/17Florida37Florida State13
200011/17Florida State30Florida7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida State1165 Overs
Florida1365 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 123 - 92 - 41 - 5
Road Teams12 - 129 - 35 - 14 - 2

(#19) FLA at (#31) FSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFLAFSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #19 #31
SP+SP+ #63 #41
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #14 #38
Blue ChipsBC% #12 #17
Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffFSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #83 #76
ExplosiveExp #130 #14
PPAPPA #87 #68
PowerPwr #24 #37
SP+SP+ #89 #38
Pts POPPO #41 #110
HavocHav #61 #72
Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffFSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #36 #66
Run ExplRExp #129 #19
PPAExp #55 #74
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #18 #106
Stuff RateStuff #22 #120
TackleTak - NR
Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffFSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #112 #79
Pass ExplPExl #82 #58
PPAExp #110 #69
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #74 #28
DB HavocDB #55 #122
Florida State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatFSU OffFLA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #32 #90
ExplosiveExp #20 #68
PPAPPA #22 #84
PowerPwr #30 #14
SP+SP+ #54 #43
Pts POPPO #46 #53
HavocHav #54 #98
Florida State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffFLA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #71
Run ExplRExp #45 #52
PPAExp #12 #57
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #7 #50
Stuff RateStuff #5 #91
TackleTak - NR
Florida State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatFSU OffFLA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #109
Pass ExplPExl #5 #86
PPAExp #46 #94
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #59 #86
DB HavocDB #48 #90
Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Florida beat Florida State last year (40-21)
Florida beat Florida State in 2024 (31-11)
Florida State beat Florida in 2023 (24-15)

  
FLA's OC Buster Faulkner (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tramell Jones Jr.213560%191205.5
Aaron Philo (Tr)212875%3731113.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh220117085.326
London Montgomery (Tr)15674274.851
Evan Pryor (Tr)7652236.946
Eric Singleton Jr. (Tr)146104.416
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric Singleton Jr. (Tr)5853439.248
Vernell Brown III40524013.160
Micah Mays Jr. (Tr)18302216.852
Evan Chieca (Tr)3125548.234

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Brad White (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham767274
Bryce Thornton563156
Aaron Chiles523111
Jaden Robinson514243
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emmanuel Oybadejo417565
Jayden Woods275431
Kamran James445332
Brendan Bett404310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Thornton563156
Emmanuel Oybadejo417565
Myles Graham767274

FSU's OC Gus Malzahn (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6811957%797326.7
Kevin Sperry121771%1942011.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Gemari Sands (Tr)10546504.437
Ousmane Kromah7240805.723
Samuel Singleton5136047.153
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson561074619.282
Micahi Danzy27571321.166
Desirrio Riles (Tr)28362212.942
Gemari Sands (Tr)4021705.418

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Blake Nichelson437111
Jeremiah Wilson421002
Ma'Khi Jones (Tr)342111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mandrell Desir308711
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Daniel Lyons264240
Rylan Kennedy (Tr)144211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)3130013
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Jeremiah Wilson421002