SMU at Florida State - 2026 Matchup Preview
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SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles

Florida State logo
Monday, September 7th 2026 (12:00 AM EDT)
Field at Doak Campbell Stadium - Tallahassee, FL  (ACC)

 
Mustangs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (38 - 17)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (30 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 3 (#14)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Our Line: SMU -3.5  (SP+ SMU -6)
Projected Score: SMU: 29 - FSU: 26 (55)
SMU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
SMU Travel: 752 miles, 1 hrs behind
Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (38 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (43 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#54)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 7) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
SMU's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/7 SMU at Florida State-3.5
Sat 9/12 SMU vs UC Davis-37.5
Sat 9/19 SMU at Louisville+1
Sat 9/26 SMU vs Missouri State-26
Sat 10/3 SMU vs Boston College-19.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 SMU vs Virginia-5.5
Fri 10/23 SMU vs California-13.5
Fri 10/30 SMU at Syracuse-16.5
Fri 11/6 SMU vs Virginia Tech-17
Sat 11/14 SMU vs Wake Forest-9
Sat 11/21 SMU at Notre Dame+15.5
Sat 11/28 SMU at Stanford-16.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Florida State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 Florida State vs New Mexico State-26
Mon 9/7 Florida State vs SMU+3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19 Florida State at Alabama+13.5
Sat 9/26 Florida State vs Central Arkansas-31.5
Sat 10/3 Florida State vs Virginia+0.5
Fri 10/9 Florida State at Louisville+7
Sat 10/17 Florida State at Miami+19
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Florida State vs Clemson+0.5
Sat 11/7 Florida State at Boston College-8.5
Fri 11/13 Florida State at Pittsburgh+4
Sat 11/21 Florida State vs NC State-2
Fri 11/27 Florida State vs Florida-1

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 7, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 7, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#30 (.23)43% (64)32.242% (93)2.9 (75)13444% (39)2833.89 (53)#9 (.03)40% (52)20.538% (18)43% (90)2.79 (12)70.81.52.2
FSU#22 (.27)46% (32)3350% (10)3.4 (7)21941% (81)2533.95 (46)#68 (.16)42% (76)2242% (66)43% (79)4.12 (110)45.31.61.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense1332.229.842.6%3.891.5214171342834.443%55%42%44%17%.23
FSU Defense122216.142.1%4.121.2 - - - - - 55%44%42%43%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense1320.522.240.2%2.792.2 - - - - - 43%55%38%43%19%.03
FSU Offense123343.345.9%3.951.6244722192535.255%44%50%41%15%.27

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU1326:5220.741%67%770.81.52.26.32.8327.6
Florida State1228:4524.151%57%5.445.31.61.26.12.6029
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense1343% (119)42% (93)30.8133.94.425 (70).11 (70)2.9 (75)79% (19)10% (74)1 (56)
FSU Defense1255% (123)42% (66) - - - - .11 (74)3.12 (106)76% (105)11% (28)0.86 (19)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense1343% (8)38% (18) - - - - -.08 (5)2.76 (46)59% (8)10% (45)0.78 (4)
FSU Offense1255% (32)50% (10)42.1218.85.231 (4).25 (12)3.4 (7)75% (47)9% (59)1.03 (45)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense1355% (20)44% (39)23.535.4283.1812.126 (14)13 (108).4 (23)1.6 (37)32% (72)32% (47).39 (37)7% (114)2.1 (34)
FSU Defense1244% (16)43% (79) - - - - - - 12 (12).25 (69)1.5 (58)30% (104)30% (75).34 (92)5% (122)2 (68)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense1355% (130)43% (90) - - - - - - 18 (6).19 (42)1.5 (32)32% (57)33% (109).29 (68)8% (7)1.9 (44)
FSU Offense1244% (104)41% (81)16.728.3253.4915.220 (33)9 (60).32 (46)1.9 (5)31% (67)38% (10).5 (11)6% (48)2.1 (30)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 14.62  #24
SMU's Offense Rating: 19.68  #24
SMU's Defense Rating: 10.06  #33
2026 Talent Rating: 780.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 15%  #27
SMU's 2026 Expected Record: 9.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4  #23
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #22
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 14.62   Florida State: 10.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 13.4   Florida State: 7.2




Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 10.64  #42
Florida State's Offense Rating: 15.77  #45
Florida State's Defense Rating: 11.69  #39
2026 Talent Rating: 950.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 36  #17
Florida State's 2026 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Florida State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2  #41
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3  #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2  #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 29
Florida State 26


Projected Total Points: 55
Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Florida State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28SMU42Florida State16SMU -6SMU46.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida State001 Overs
SMU110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#24) SMU at (#42) FSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSMUFSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #24 #42
SP+SP+ #23 #41
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #64 #24
Blue ChipsBC% #27 #17
SMU Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Very high, love P4/ACC, good staff & NIL
(2/13) New DC Crum 1st time PC (Prev DC -> Cowboys)
(2/7) QB Jennings a good one, but must cut TOs
(2/3) HC Lashlee underrated, OC is new play caller
(2/3) RB Raphael (Cal) a big sign, have depth options
(2/3) WR have 3 good frontline starters, depth unproven
(2/3) OL is strong, 3 good starters back w depth.
(2/3) DL complete rebuild w 4 portals but has options
(2/3) LB strong unit, 3 top perf starters w/ good depth
(2/3) CBs have good 4 rotation, S lacks exp but has parts
(2/3) Get thru early slate & poss huge shot @ ND in Nov
SMU Injury Report
Florida State Notes
(2/14) Vibes: Lowest in 40+ years, Norvell era failing
(2/16) OL none back. 5 portals that started 12 games LY
(2/2) OC Gus Malzahn retiring, Tim Harris now OC (WR)
(2/2) Word is Norvell will call plays in '26
(2/1) QB: A Daniels (Aub) starter? DeNobile (FCS)?
(2/1) RB has options. Wisner (Tx) added, Kromah back
(2/1) WR Robinson & Danzy great duo. Depth v young
(2/1) DL has some good parts + 2 exp'd portal adds
(2/1) LBs have one starter back and lots of questions
(2/1) DBs rebuild. 5 portal adds. Talent here but ?
Florida State Injury Report
SMU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffFSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #64 #76
ExplosiveExp #15 #14
PPAPPA #30 #68
PowerPwr #24 #39
SP+SP+ #22 #38
Pts POPPO #53 #110
HavocHav #99 #72
SMU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffFSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #93 #66
Run ExplRExp #56 #19
PPAExp #70 #74
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #75 #106
Stuff RateStuff #82 #120
TackleTak - NR
SMU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffFSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #39 #79
Pass ExplPExl #37 #58
PPAExp #23 #69
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #74 #28
DB HavocDB #114 #122
Florida State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatFSU OffSMU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #32 #52
ExplosiveExp #20 #27
PPAPPA #22 #9
PowerPwr #45 #33
SP+SP+ #54 #25
Pts POPPO #46 #12
HavocHav #54 #15
Florida State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffSMU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #18
Run ExplRExp #45 #4
PPAExp #12 #5
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #7 #46
Stuff RateStuff #5 #23
TackleTak - NR
Florida State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatFSU OffSMU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #90
Pass ExplPExl #5 #32
PPAExp #46 #42
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #59 #45
DB HavocDB #48 #7
Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'26 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
SMU beat Florida State in 2024 (42-16)

  
SMU's OC Rob Likens (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings30045466%364126138.0
Ty Hawkins11100%9009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)233952134.133
Derrick McFall3518945.448
Dramekco Green259013.615
Kevin Jennings705440.826
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Yamir Knight54637511.861
Yannick Smith (Tr)44583513.359
Jalen Cooper19321216.975
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)3424517.242

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Maurice Crum Jr (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Booker693142
Jimmy Wyrick621008
Alex Kilgore604002
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques White (Tr)4311531
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
Ira Singleton (Tr)173360
Brandon Miyazono445208
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Miyazono445208
Jimmy Wyrick621008
Marcellus Barnes Jr.322006

FSU's OC Tim Harris (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dean DeNobile (Tr)22334764%25281977.3
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6811957%797326.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Gemari Sands (Tr)10546504.437
Ousmane Kromah7240805.723
Samuel Singleton5136047.153
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson561074619.282
Micahi Danzy27571321.166
Desirrio Riles (Tr)28362212.942
Gemari Sands (Tr)4021705.418

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ashlynd Barker485412
Blake Nichelson437111
Ja'Bril Rawls402002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mandrell Desir308711
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ashlynd Barker485412
Rylan Kennedy (Tr)144211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)3130013
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ja'Bril Rawls402002