SMU at Florida State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Monday, September 7th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Field at Doak Campbell Stadium - Tallahassee, FL

Mustangs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (38 - 17)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (30 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#35)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: SMU -1.5 (SP+ SMU -6)
Projected Score: SMU: 28 - FSU: 27 (55)
SMU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
SMU Travel: 752 miles, 1 hrs behind

Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (38 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (43 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SMU Players
FSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

SMU's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/7	SMU at Florida State	-1.5
Sat 9/12	SMU vs UC Davis	-35
Sat 9/19	SMU at Louisville	+1.5
Sat 9/26	SMU vs Missouri State	-31
Sat 10/3	SMU vs Boston College	-18.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	SMU vs Virginia	-6
Fri 10/23	SMU vs California	-13.5
Fri 10/30	SMU at Syracuse	-16.5
Fri 11/6	SMU vs Virginia Tech	-16
Sat 11/14	SMU vs Wake Forest	-8
Sat 11/21	SMU at Notre Dame	+17.5
Sat 11/28	SMU at Stanford	-14

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

Florida State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	Florida State vs New Mexico State	-26
Mon 9/7	Florida State vs SMU	+1.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19	Florida State at Alabama	+12.5
Sat 9/26	Florida State vs Central Arkansas	-31
Sat 10/3	Florida State vs Virginia	-2
Fri 10/9	Florida State at Louisville	+5.5
Sat 10/17	Florida State at Miami	+18
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31	Florida State vs Clemson	-1.5
Sat 11/7	Florida State at Boston College	-10
Fri 11/13	Florida State at Pittsburgh	+3
Sat 11/21	Florida State vs NC State	-3
Fri 11/27	Florida State vs Florida	-1

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU	#30 (.23)	43% (64)	32.2	42% (93)	2.9 (75)	134	44% (39)	283	3.89 (53)	#9 (.03)	40% (52)	20.5	38% (18)	43% (90)	2.79 (12)	70.8	1.5	2.2
FSU	#22 (.27)	46% (32)	33	50% (10)	3.4 (7)	219	41% (81)	253	3.95 (46)	#68 (.16)	42% (76)	22	42% (66)	43% (79)	4.12 (110)	45.3	1.6	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Offense	13	32.2	29.8	42.6%	3.89	1.5	21	417	134	283	4.4	43%	55%	42%	44%	17%	.23
FSU Defense	12	22	16.1	42.1%	4.12	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	42%	43%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Defense	13	20.5	22.2	40.2%	2.79	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	55%	38%	43%	19%	.03
FSU Offense	12	33	43.3	45.9%	3.95	1.6	24	472	219	253	5.2	55%	44%	50%	41%	15%	.27

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
SMU	13	26:52	20.7	41%	67%	7	70.8	1.5	2.2	6.3	2.8	3	27.6
Florida State	12	28:45	24.1	51%	57%	5.4	45.3	1.6	1.2	6.1	2.6	0	29

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Offense	13	43% (119)	42% (93)	30.8	133.9	4.4	25 (70)	.11 (70)	2.9 (75)	79% (19)	10% (74)	1 (56)
FSU Defense	12	55% (123)	42% (66)	-	-	-	-	.11 (74)	3.12 (106)	76% (105)	11% (28)	0.86 (19)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Defense	13	43% (8)	38% (18)	-	-	-	-	-.08 (5)	2.76 (46)	59% (8)	10% (45)	0.78 (4)
FSU Offense	12	55% (32)	50% (10)	42.1	218.8	5.2	31 (4)	.25 (12)	3.4 (7)	75% (47)	9% (59)	1.03 (45)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Offense	13	55% (20)	44% (39)	23.5	35.4	283.1	8	12.1	26 (14)	13 (108)	.4 (23)	1.6 (37)	32% (72)	32% (47)	.39 (37)	7% (114)	2.1 (34)
FSU Defense	12	44% (16)	43% (79)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (12)	.25 (69)	1.5 (58)	30% (104)	30% (75)	.34 (92)	5% (122)	2 (68)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Defense	13	55% (130)	43% (90)	-	-	-	-	-	-	18 (6)	.19 (42)	1.5 (32)	32% (57)	33% (109)	.29 (68)	8% (7)	1.9 (44)
FSU Offense	12	44% (104)	41% (81)	16.7	28.3	253.4	9	15.2	20 (33)	9 (60)	.32 (46)	1.9 (5)	31% (67)	38% (10)	.5 (11)	6% (48)	2.1 (30)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 9.94 #26
SMU's Offense Rating: 15.10 #33
SMU's Defense Rating: 10.16 #27
2026 Talent Rating: 758.00 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 9% #42
SMU's 2026 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
SMU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4 #23
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #22
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5 #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 9.94 Florida State: 10.175

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 13.4 Florida State: 7.2

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 10.175 #31
Florida State's Offense Rating: 15.90 #30
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.75 #37
2026 Talent Rating: 838.00 #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 45 #17
Florida State's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Florida State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #41
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2 #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 28
Florida State 27

Projected Total Points: 55

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Florida State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	SMU	42	Florida State	16	SMU -6	SMU	46.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida State	0	0	1 Overs
SMU	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#26) SMU at (#31) FSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SMU	FSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#26	#31
SP+SP+	#23	#41
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#63	#38
Blue ChipsBC%	#42	#17

SMU Injury Report

Florida State Injury Report

SMU on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	FSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#64	#76
ExplosiveExp	#15	#14
PPAPPA	#30	#68
PowerPwr	#33	#37
SP+SP+	#22	#38
Pts POPPO	#53	#110
HavocHav	#99	#72

SMU Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#93	#66
Run ExplRExp	#56	#19
PPAExp	#70	#74
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#75	#106
Stuff RateStuff	#82	#120
TackleTak	-	NR

SMU Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#39	#79
Pass ExplPExl	#37	#58
PPAExp	#23	#69
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#74	#28
DB HavocDB	#114	#122

Florida State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	SMU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#32	#52
ExplosiveExp	#20	#27
PPAPPA	#22	#9
PowerPwr	#30	#27
SP+SP+	#54	#25
Pts POPPO	#46	#12
HavocHav	#54	#15

Florida State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#18
Run ExplRExp	#45	#4
PPAExp	#12	#5
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#7	#46
Stuff RateStuff	#5	#23
TackleTak	-	NR

Florida State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#81	#90
Pass ExplPExl	#5	#32
PPAExp	#46	#42
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#59	#45
DB HavocDB	#48	#7

Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'26 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Florida State in 2024 (42-16)

SMU's OC Rob Likens (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kevin Jennings	300	454	66%	3641	26	13	8.0
Charlie Fiser	4	4	100%	30	0	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)	233	952	13	4.1	33
Derrick McFall	35	189	4	5.4	48
Dramekco Green	25	90	1	3.6	15
Kevin Jennings	70	54	4	0.8	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Yamir Knight	54	637	5	11.8	61
Yannick Smith (Tr)	44	583	5	13.3	59
Jalen Cooper	19	321	2	16.9	75
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)	34	245	1	7.2	42

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Booker	69	3	1	4	2
Alex Kilgore	60	4	0	0	2
Jarvis Lee Jr.	55	12	4	4	2
Terry Webb	46	7	6	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Terry Webb	46	7	6	2	4
Marques White (Tr)	43	11	5	3	1
Jarvis Lee Jr.	55	12	4	4	2
Ira Singleton (Tr)	17	3	3	6	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Miyazono	44	5	2	0	8
Marcellus Barnes Jr.	32	2	0	0	6
Terry Webb	46	7	6	2	4

FSU's OC Gus Malzahn (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ashton Daniels (Tr)	68	119	57%	797	3	2	6.7
Kevin Sperry	12	17	71%	194	2	0	11.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Wisner	131	597	3	4.6	48
Gemari Sands (Tr)	105	465	0	4.4	37
Ousmane Kromah	72	408	0	5.7	23
Samuel Singleton	51	360	4	7.1	53

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Duce Robinson	56	1074	6	19.2	82
Micahi Danzy	27	571	3	21.1	66
Desirrio Riles (Tr)	28	362	2	12.9	42
Gemari Sands (Tr)	40	217	0	5.4	18

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Jones (Tr)	132	10	4	0	2
Blake Nichelson	43	7	1	1	1
Jeremiah Wilson	42	1	0	0	2
Ma'Khi Jones (Tr)	34	2	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mandrell Desir	30	8	7	1	1
Chris Jones (Tr)	132	10	4	0	2
Daniel Lyons	26	4	2	4	0
Rylan Kennedy (Tr)	14	4	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)	31	3	0	13
Chris Jones (Tr)	132	10	4	2
Jeremiah Wilson	42	1	0	2