Boston College at SMU - 2026 Matchup Preview
Boston College logo

Boston College Eagles at SMU Mustangs

SMU logo
Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Gerald J. Ford Stadium - University Park, TX  (ACC)

 
Eagles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill O'Brien (9 - 16)
Avg Score : 25 - 33 (25 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#83)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
SMU 2nd straight Home Game
SMU is playing their 5th straight game
BC is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: SMU -19.5  (SP+ SMU -22)

Projected Score: BC: 19 - SMU: 38 (57)
SMU Win prob: 88% | Cover: 46%
BC Travel: 1541 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Mustangs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (38 - 17)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (36 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 3 (#14)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
 
Boston College's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Boston College at Cincinnati+8
Fri 9/11 Boston College vs Rutgers+2
Sat 9/19 Boston College vs Maine-20.5
Sat 9/26 Boston College vs Virginia Tech+0
Sat 10/3 Boston College at SMU+19.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 Boston College vs Pittsburgh+10
Sat 10/24 Boston College at Georgia Tech+14.5
Sat 10/31 Boston College at Duke+12.5
Sat 11/7 Boston College vs Florida State+8.5
Sat 11/14 Boston College at Notre Dame+32
Sat 11/21 Boston College vs Syracuse-4.5
Sat 11/28 Boston College at Miami+30

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boston College's Schedule
SMU's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/7 SMU at Florida State-3.5
Sat 9/12 SMU vs UC Davis-37.5
Sat 9/19 SMU at Louisville+1
Sat 9/26 SMU vs Missouri State-26
Sat 10/3 SMU vs Boston College-19.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 SMU vs Virginia-5.5
Fri 10/23 SMU vs California-13.5
Fri 10/30 SMU at Syracuse-16.5
Fri 11/6 SMU vs Virginia Tech-17
Sat 11/14 SMU vs Wake Forest-9
Sat 11/21 SMU at Notre Dame+15.5
Sat 11/28 SMU at Stanford-16.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BC#79 (.16)42% (66)25.442% (92)2.75 (106)10444% (50)2803.39 (99)#115 (.23)43% (82)32.844% (86)42% (72)3.82 (83)49.71.81
SMU#30 (.23)43% (64)32.242% (93)2.9 (75)13444% (39)2833.89 (53)#9 (.03)40% (52)20.538% (18)43% (90)2.79 (12)70.81.52.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BC Offense1225.42542.4%3.391.8213841042803.340%58%42%44%17%.16
SMU Defense1320.519.240.2%2.792.2 - - - - - 43%55%38%43%19%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BC Defense1232.83442.6%3.821 - - - - - 50%47%44%42%12%.23
SMU Offense1332.23642.6%3.891.5214171342834.443%55%42%44%17%.23

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Boston College1229:1620.839%52%5.949.71.813.81.3127.6
SMU1326:5220.741%67%770.81.52.26.32.8327.6
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BC Offense1240% (128)42% (92)31.31043.316 (88).05 (104)2.75 (106)80% (14)10% (84)0.89 (106)
SMU Defense1343% (8)38% (18) - - - - -.08 (5)2.76 (46)59% (8)10% (45)0.78 (4)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BC Defense1250% (70)44% (86) - - - - .12 (83)2.79 (51)70% (61)7% (127)1.04 (106)
SMU Offense1343% (119)42% (93)30.8133.94.425 (70).11 (70)2.9 (75)79% (19)10% (74)1 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BC Offense1258% (9)44% (50)23.937.8280.27.411.720 (42)12 (60).25 (66)1.4 (125)31% (63)31% (54).32 (63)7% (99)1.9 (91)
SMU Defense1355% (130)43% (90) - - - - - - 18 (6).19 (42)1.5 (32)32% (57)33% (109).29 (68)8% (7)1.9 (44)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BC Defense1247% (57)42% (72) - - - - - - 6 (75).39 (121)1.7 (127)29% (117)33% (106).36 (99)5% (102)2 (75)
SMU Offense1355% (20)44% (39)23.535.4283.1812.126 (14)13 (108).4 (23)1.6 (37)32% (72)32% (47).39 (37)7% (114)2.1 (34)

Boston College's Power Ratings
Boston College's Power Rating: 2.68  #67
Boston College's Offense Rating: 12.14  #76
Boston College's Defense Rating: 14.46  #60
2026 Talent Rating: 862.00  #45
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
Boston College's 2026 Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2
Boston College's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.5  #97
Boston College's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.3  #97
Boston College's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #107

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Boston College: 2.68   SMU: 16.51

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boston College: -8.5   SMU: 13.4




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 16.51  #24
SMU's Offense Rating: 19.68  #24
SMU's Defense Rating: 10.06  #33
2026 Talent Rating: 780.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 15  #27
SMU's 2026 Expected Record: 9.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4  #23
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #22
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


Boston College Scoring
Offense: 25.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25
Defense: 32.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 34

Boston College's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 38
Boston College 19


Projected Total Points: 57
SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

SMU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08Boston College13SMU45SMU -10.5SMU54.5Over
202411/16SMU38Boston College28SMU -19Boston College54.5Over
202312/28Boston College23SMU14SMU -13.5Boston College49.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU212 Overs
Boston College121 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 20 - 11 - 1
Road Teams1 - 22 - 11 - 11 - 0

(#67) BC at (#24) SMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBCSMU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #67 #24
SP+SP+ #97 #23
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #45 #64
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #27
Boston College Notes
(2/15) Vibes: Low, O'Brien/NIL - this isn't working
(2/7) QB1? Only FCS Mason McKenzie has exp (2k, 14 TD)
(2/6) DC Ted Roof? Really? OC left for NFL in Jan
(2/6) RB Dickens (Lib) good add, have depth options
(2/6) WR has a lot of guys, none > 13 FBS rec.
(2/6) OL 7 portal adds, lots of G5/FCS risers. Have exp
(2/6) DL has some parts, lots of options. Nothing special
(2/6) LB couple of good portals, could be good unit
(2/6) CB has some good options, S has exp but avg
(2/6) Playing ND, Rutgers & Cincy OOC is suicide
Boston College Injury Report
SMU Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Very high, love P4/ACC, good staff & NIL
(2/13) New DC Crum 1st time PC (Prev DC -> Cowboys)
(2/7) QB Jennings a good one, but must cut TOs
(2/3) HC Lashlee underrated, OC is new play caller
(2/3) RB Raphael (Cal) a big sign, have depth options
(2/3) WR have 3 good frontline starters, depth unproven
(2/3) OL is strong, 3 good starters back w depth.
(2/3) DL complete rebuild w 4 portals but has options
(2/3) LB strong unit, 3 top perf starters w/ good depth
(2/3) CBs have good 4 rotation, S lacks exp but has parts
(2/3) Get thru early slate & poss huge shot @ ND in Nov
SMU Injury Report
Boston College on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BC OffSMU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #66 #52
ExplosiveExp #93 #27
PPAPPA #79 #9
PowerPwr #76 #33
SP+SP+ #97 #25
Pts POPPO #99 #12
HavocHav #92 #15
Boston College Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BC OffSMU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #92 #18
Run ExplRExp #106 #4
PPAExp #104 #5
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #106 #46
Stuff RateStuff #55 #23
TackleTak - NR
Boston College Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BC OffSMU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #50 #90
Pass ExplPExl #125 #32
PPAExp #66 #42
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #84 #45
DB HavocDB #99 #7
SMU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatSMU OffBC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #64 #82
ExplosiveExp #15 #127
PPAPPA #30 #115
PowerPwr #24 #60
SP+SP+ #22 #107
Pts POPPO #53 #83
HavocHav #99 #126
SMU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffBC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #93 #86
Run ExplRExp #56 #106
PPAExp #70 #83
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #75 #51
Stuff RateStuff #82 #43
TackleTak - NR
SMU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatSMU OffBC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #39 #72
Pass ExplPExl #37 #127
PPAExp #23 #121
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #74 #127
DB HavocDB #114 #102
Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'26 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

BC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
SMU beat Boston College last year (45-13)
SMU beat Boston College in 2024 (38-28)
Boston College beat SMU in 2023 (23-14)

  
BC's OC Vacant (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mason McKenzie (Tr)14726755%205414N/AN/A
Bryce LaFollette (Tr)22100%15007.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Dickens (Tr)2281325165.895
Mason McKenzie (Tr)11766265.7N/A
Nolan Ray (Tr)6728924.353
Bo MacCormack III154312.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Reed Swanson (Tr)57939816.567
Kaelan Chudzinski24313413.045
Dawson Pough13197115.252
Javarius Green (Tr)13150011.539

View Boston College's Full Roster

BC's DC Ted Roof (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
KP Price933030
Anthony Palano (Tr)651142
Carter Davis592102
Isaiah Farris280006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Demetrius Ballard (Tr)133200
Carter Davis592102
Justin Medlock (Tr)251111
TJ Green251102
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Farris280006
Ashton Cunningham130003
Syair Torrence50003

SMU's OC Rob Likens (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings30045466%364126138.0
Ty Hawkins11100%9009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)233952134.133
Derrick McFall3518945.448
Dramekco Green259013.615
Kevin Jennings705440.826
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Yamir Knight54637511.861
Yannick Smith (Tr)44583513.359
Jalen Cooper19321216.975
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)3424517.242

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Maurice Crum Jr (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Booker693142
Jimmy Wyrick621008
Alex Kilgore604002
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques White (Tr)4311531
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
Ira Singleton (Tr)173360
Brandon Miyazono445208
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Miyazono445208
Jimmy Wyrick621008
Marcellus Barnes Jr.322006