California at SMU - 2026 Matchup Preview
California logo

California Golden Bears at SMU Mustangs

SMU logo
Friday, October 23rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Gerald J. Ford Stadium - University Park, TX  (ACC)

 
Golden Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tosh Lupoi (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (24 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.2 - 5.8 (#57)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 6) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
SMU 4th straight Home Game
CAL is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: SMU -13.5  (SP+ SMU -17)
Projected Score: CAL: 20 - SMU: 33 (53)
SMU Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
CAL Travel: 1472 miles, 2 hrs behind
Mustangs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (38 - 17)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (36 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 3 (#14)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
 
California's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 California vs UCLA-2.5
Sat 9/12 California at Syracuse-5.5
Sat 9/19 California vs Wagner-26.5
Fri 9/25 California vs Clemson+5.5
Sat 10/3 California at UNLV+1.5
Sat 10/10 California vs Virginia Tech-6
Sat 10/17 California vs Wake Forest+2
Fri 10/23 California at SMU+13.5
Fri 10/30 California at NC State+8
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/14 California at Virginia+10.5
Sat 11/21 California vs Stanford-10.5
Sat 11/28 California vs Pittsburgh+4

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule
SMU's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/7 SMU at Florida State-3.5
Sat 9/12 SMU vs UC Davis-37.5
Sat 9/19 SMU at Louisville+1
Sat 9/26 SMU vs Missouri State-26
Sat 10/3 SMU vs Boston College-19.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 SMU vs Virginia-5.5
Fri 10/23 SMU vs California-13.5
Fri 10/30 SMU at Syracuse-16.5
Fri 11/6 SMU vs Virginia Tech-17
Sat 11/14 SMU vs Wake Forest-9
Sat 11/21 SMU at Notre Dame+15.5
Sat 11/28 SMU at Stanford-16.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CAL#98 (.12)41% (95)25.338% (119)2.64 (120)8343% (57)2753.7 (66)#71 (.17)42% (79)27.247% (118)38% (34)3.69 (71)64.61.21.1
SMU#30 (.23)43% (64)32.242% (93)2.9 (75)13444% (39)2833.89 (53)#9 (.03)40% (52)20.538% (18)43% (90)2.79 (12)70.81.52.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CAL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CAL Offense1325.323.740.6%3.71.220358832752.839%60%38%43%16%.12
SMU Defense1320.519.240.2%2.792.2 - - - - - 43%55%38%43%19%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CAL Defense1327.229.642.3%3.691.1 - - - - - 46%51%47%38%15%.17
SMU Offense1332.23642.6%3.891.5214171342834.443%55%42%44%17%.23

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
California1330:1419.940%52%7.864.61.21.14.61.5027.1
SMU1326:5220.741%67%770.81.52.26.32.8327.6
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CAL Offense1339% (131)38% (119)29.682.52.821 (78)-.04 (133)2.64 (120)70% (81)10% (74)0.89 (102)
SMU Defense1343% (8)38% (18) - - - - -.08 (5)2.76 (46)59% (8)10% (45)0.78 (4)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CAL Defense1346% (27)47% (118) - - - - .21 (122)3.32 (129)85% (131)8% (116)0.98 (82)
SMU Offense1343% (119)42% (93)30.8133.94.425 (70).11 (70)2.9 (75)79% (19)10% (74)1 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CAL Offense1360% (6)43% (57)24.838.8275.37.111.120 (61)10 (119).23 (78)1.5 (108)32% (77)33% (32).36 (49)7% (105)1.9 (113)
SMU Defense1355% (130)43% (90) - - - - - - 18 (6).19 (42)1.5 (32)32% (57)33% (109).29 (68)8% (7)1.9 (44)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CAL Defense1351% (101)38% (34) - - - - - - 8 (55).14 (23)1.4 (10)32% (64)26% (23).16 (15)7% (22)1.7 (9)
SMU Offense1355% (20)44% (39)23.535.4283.1812.126 (14)13 (108).4 (23)1.6 (37)32% (72)32% (47).39 (37)7% (114)2.1 (34)

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 9.24  #41
California's Offense Rating: 17.12  #36
California's Defense Rating: 12.88  #49
2026 Talent Rating: 910.00  #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #47
California's 2026 Expected Record: 6.2 - 5.8
California's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #80
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6  #77
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9  #72

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
California: 9.24   SMU: 16.51

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: -3.2   SMU: 13.4




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 16.51  #24
SMU's Offense Rating: 19.68  #24
SMU's Defense Rating: 10.06  #33
2026 Talent Rating: 780.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 15  #27
SMU's 2026 Expected Record: 9.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4  #23
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #22
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.7
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.6

California's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 33
California 20

Projected Total Points: 53
SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

SMU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29California38SMU35SMU -13.5California53.5Over
202411/30SMU38California6SMU -11.5SMU54.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU111 Overs
California111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#41) CAL at (#24) SMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCALSMU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #41 #24
SP+SP+ #80 #23
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #32 #64
Blue ChipsBC% #47 #27
California Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Excited, Lupoi era, JKS back, great portal
(3/3) DL 8 portals, lots of mild exp but big potential
(2/6) QB retaining JKS a tremedous boost to Lupoi era
(2/6) RB 3 portals all w 440+ yds LY. Who emerges?
(2/6) WR 2 big portals Hendricks+Strong, v good TEs
(2/6) OL has lots of ?, 5 portals most w meh grades
(2/6) LB also a ?, 3 portals, exp but not much prod
(2/6) CB talented portal adds but very limited exp
(2/6) New staff w/ Lupoi. Hands full w Def roster
(2/6) S most settled pos on Def. Good adds/options
(2/6) OOC vs UCLA, @ UNLV is ambitious
California Injury Report
SMU Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Very high, love P4/ACC, good staff & NIL
(2/13) New DC Crum 1st time PC (Prev DC -> Cowboys)
(2/7) QB Jennings a good one, but must cut TOs
(2/3) HC Lashlee underrated, OC is new play caller
(2/3) RB Raphael (Cal) a big sign, have depth options
(2/3) WR have 3 good frontline starters, depth unproven
(2/3) OL is strong, 3 good starters back w depth.
(2/3) DL complete rebuild w 4 portals but has options
(2/3) LB strong unit, 3 top perf starters w/ good depth
(2/3) CBs have good 4 rotation, S lacks exp but has parts
(2/3) Get thru early slate & poss huge shot @ ND in Nov
SMU Injury Report
California on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffSMU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #95 #52
ExplosiveExp #65 #27
PPAPPA #98 #9
PowerPwr #36 #33
SP+SP+ #77 #25
Pts POPPO #66 #12
HavocHav #91 #15
California Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffSMU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #119 #18
Run ExplRExp #102 #4
PPAExp #133 #5
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #120 #46
Stuff RateStuff #58 #23
TackleTak - NR
California Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffSMU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #57 #90
Pass ExplPExl #108 #32
PPAExp #78 #42
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #74 #45
DB HavocDB #105 #7
SMU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatSMU OffCAL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #64 #79
ExplosiveExp #15 #31
PPAPPA #30 #71
PowerPwr #24 #49
SP+SP+ #22 #72
Pts POPPO #53 #71
HavocHav #99 #80
SMU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffCAL Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #93 #118
Run ExplRExp #56 #82
PPAExp #70 #122
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #75 #129
Stuff RateStuff #82 #134
TackleTak - NR
SMU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatSMU OffCAL Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #39 #34
Pass ExplPExl #37 #10
PPAExp #23 #23
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #74 #116
DB HavocDB #114 #22
Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'26 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
California beat SMU last year (38-35)
SMU beat California in 2024 (38-6)

  
CAL's OC Jordan Somerville (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele31549164%34461897.0
Jackson Brousseau (Tr)12820164%1354936.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ashten Emory (Tr)11956944.856
Adam Mohammed (Tr)10652354.925
Carter Vargas (Tr)6744556.650
Byron Cardwell4826715.622
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chase Hendricks (Tr)711037714.667
Ian Strong (Tr)52762514.745
Dorian Thomas (Tr)56560410.034
Mason Mini35387411.151

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Michael Hutchings (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cameron Sidney475113
Aiden Manutai442012
Aaron Hampton411100
Jasiah Wagoner281010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Wayne265350
Joshua Pierce (Tr)142210
Cameron Sidney475113
Aaron Hampton411100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derek Wilkins120018
Cameron Sidney475113
Isaiah Crosby241003

SMU's OC Rob Likens (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings30045466%364126138.0
Ty Hawkins11100%9009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)233952134.133
Derrick McFall3518945.448
Dramekco Green259013.615
Kevin Jennings705440.826
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Yamir Knight54637511.861
Yannick Smith (Tr)44583513.359
Jalen Cooper19321216.975
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)3424517.242

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Maurice Crum Jr (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Booker693142
Jimmy Wyrick621008
Alex Kilgore604002
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques White (Tr)4311531
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
Ira Singleton (Tr)173360
Brandon Miyazono445208
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Miyazono445208
Jimmy Wyrick621008
Marcellus Barnes Jr.322006