SMU at Louisville - 2026 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 19th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Papa John's Cardinal Stadium - Louisville, KY

Mustangs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (38 - 17)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (30 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#35)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

LOU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Louisville -1.5 (SP+ SMU -1)
Projected Score: SMU: 26 - LOU: 27 (53)
LOU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
SMU Travel: 722 miles, 1 hrs behind

Cardinals (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (28 - 12)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (34 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#41)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SMU Players
LOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

SMU's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/7	SMU at Florida State	-1.5
Sat 9/12	SMU vs UC Davis	-35
Sat 9/19	SMU at Louisville	+1.5
Sat 9/26	SMU vs Missouri State	-31
Sat 10/3	SMU vs Boston College	-18.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	SMU vs Virginia	-6
Fri 10/23	SMU vs California	-13.5
Fri 10/30	SMU at Syracuse	-16.5
Fri 11/6	SMU vs Virginia Tech	-16
Sat 11/14	SMU vs Wake Forest	-8
Sat 11/21	SMU at Notre Dame	+17.5
Sat 11/28	SMU at Stanford	-14

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

Louisville's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Louisville at Ole Miss	+12.5
Fri 9/11	Louisville vs Villanova	-34
Sat 9/19	Louisville vs SMU	-1.5
Sat 9/26	Louisville vs Wake Forest	-7
Sat 10/3	Louisville at NC State	-1
Fri 10/9	Louisville vs Florida State	-5.5
Sat 10/17	Louisville at Syracuse	-15.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31	Louisville vs Stanford	-18
Fri 11/6	Louisville at Georgia Tech	-1
Sat 11/14	Louisville at North Carolina	-9
Sat 11/21	Louisville vs Pittsburgh	-5
Sat 11/28	Louisville at Kentucky	-5.5

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU	#30 (.23)	43% (64)	32.2	42% (93)	2.9 (75)	134	44% (39)	283	3.89 (53)	#9 (.03)	40% (52)	20.5	38% (18)	43% (90)	2.79 (12)	70.8	1.5	2.2
LOU	#84 (.15)	45% (44)	29.9	50% (8)	2.75 (105)	164	41% (74)	221	3.62 (77)	#15 (.05)	37% (16)	21.2	38% (15)	37% (19)	3.38 (43)	63.2	1.3	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Offense	13	32.2	29.8	42.6%	3.89	1.5	21	417	134	283	4.4	43%	55%	42%	44%	17%	.23
LOU Defense	13	21.2	18.9	36.7%	3.38	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	38%	37%	17%	.05

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Defense	13	20.5	22.2	40.2%	2.79	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	55%	38%	43%	19%	.03
LOU Offense	13	29.9	33.8	44.7%	3.62	1.3	20	385	164	221	5.1	44%	53%	50%	41%	17%	.15

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
SMU	13	26:52	20.7	41%	67%	7	70.8	1.5	2.2	6.3	2.8	3	27.6
Louisville	13	30:12	19.6	35%	64%	6.9	63.2	1.3	1.5	5.9	2.4	2	32.4

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Offense	13	43% (119)	42% (93)	30.8	133.9	4.4	25 (70)	.11 (70)	2.9 (75)	79% (19)	10% (74)	1 (56)
LOU Defense	13	46% (17)	38% (15)	-	-	-	-	.07 (51)	2.74 (41)	75% (97)	11% (38)	0.95 (63)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Defense	13	43% (8)	38% (18)	-	-	-	-	-.08 (5)	2.76 (46)	59% (8)	10% (45)	0.78 (4)
LOU Offense	13	44% (111)	50% (8)	32.3	164	5.1	25 (70)	.21 (21)	2.75 (105)	65% (108)	10% (98)	1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Offense	13	55% (20)	44% (39)	23.5	35.4	283.1	8	12.1	26 (14)	13 (108)	.4 (23)	1.6 (37)	32% (72)	32% (47)	.39 (37)	7% (114)	2.1 (34)
LOU Defense	13	53% (120)	37% (19)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (6)	.06 (6)	1.4 (7)	34% (24)	24% (8)	.11 (9)	7% (38)	1.9 (23)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Defense	13	55% (130)	43% (90)	-	-	-	-	-	-	18 (6)	.19 (42)	1.5 (32)	32% (57)	33% (109)	.29 (68)	8% (7)	1.9 (44)
LOU Offense	13	53% (35)	41% (74)	20.6	32.2	220.6	6.9	10.7	18 (75)	9 (60)	.13 (119)	1.4 (131)	28% (21)	27% (104)	.14 (124)	6% (90)	1.9 (107)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 9.94 #26
SMU's Offense Rating: 15.10 #33
SMU's Defense Rating: 10.16 #27
2026 Talent Rating: 758.00 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 9% #42
SMU's 2026 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
SMU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4 #23
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #22
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5 #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 9.94 Louisville: 13.015

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 13.4 Louisville: 12.4

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 13.015 #30
Louisville's Offense Rating: 14.86 #36
Louisville's Defense Rating: 11.23 #31
2026 Talent Rating: 750.00 #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #46
Louisville's 2026 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Louisville's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.4 #25
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #39
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #29

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 27
SMU 26

Projected Total Points: 53

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.8
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.9

Louisville's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	SMU	38	Louisville	6	SMU -4	SMU	49.5	Under
2024	10/05	Louisville	27	SMU	34	Louisville -6.5	SMU	55.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisville	0	0	1 Overs
SMU	2	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#26) SMU at (#30) LOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SMU	LOU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#26	#30
SP+SP+	#23	#25
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#63	#64
Blue ChipsBC%	#42	#46

SMU Injury Report

Louisville Injury Report

SMU on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	LOU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#64	#16
ExplosiveExp	#15	#26
PPAPPA	#30	#15
PowerPwr	#33	#31
SP+SP+	#22	#29
Pts POPPO	#53	#43
HavocHav	#99	#33

SMU Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#93	#15
Run ExplRExp	#56	#63
PPAExp	#70	#51
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#75	#41
Stuff RateStuff	#82	#52
TackleTak	-	NR

SMU Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#39	#19
Pass ExplPExl	#37	#7
PPAExp	#23	#6
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#74	#38
DB HavocDB	#114	#38

Louisville on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	SMU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#44	#52
ExplosiveExp	#90	#27
PPAPPA	#84	#9
PowerPwr	#36	#27
SP+SP+	#39	#25
Pts POPPO	#77	#12
HavocHav	#93	#15

Louisville Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#8	#18
Run ExplRExp	#28	#4
PPAExp	#21	#5
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#105	#46
Stuff RateStuff	#122	#23
TackleTak	-	NR

Louisville Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#74	#90
Pass ExplPExl	#131	#32
PPAExp	#119	#42
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#98	#45
DB HavocDB	#90	#7

Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'26 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Louisville last year (38-6)
SMU beat Louisville in 2024 (34-27)

SMU's OC Rob Likens (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kevin Jennings	300	454	66%	3641	26	13	8.0
Charlie Fiser	4	4	100%	30	0	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)	233	952	13	4.1	33
Derrick McFall	35	189	4	5.4	48
Dramekco Green	25	90	1	3.6	15
Kevin Jennings	70	54	4	0.8	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Yamir Knight	54	637	5	11.8	61
Yannick Smith (Tr)	44	583	5	13.3	59
Jalen Cooper	19	321	2	16.9	75
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)	34	245	1	7.2	42

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Booker	69	3	1	4	2
Alex Kilgore	60	4	0	0	2
Jarvis Lee Jr.	55	12	4	4	2
Terry Webb	46	7	6	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Terry Webb	46	7	6	2	4
Marques White (Tr)	43	11	5	3	1
Jarvis Lee Jr.	55	12	4	4	2
Ira Singleton (Tr)	17	3	3	6	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Miyazono	44	5	2	0	8
Marcellus Barnes Jr.	32	2	0	0	6
Terry Webb	46	7	6	2	4

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Lincoln Kienholz (Tr)	11	14	79%	139	1	0	9.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keyjuan Brown	96	704	6	7.3	67
Braxton Jennings	37	200	1	5.4	22
Marquise Davis (Tr)	34	200	2	5.9	23
Shaun Boykins	37	190	1	5.1	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Richardson (Tr)	47	810	7	17.2	75
Jackson Voth (Tr)	48	536	4	11.2	35
Brody Foley (Tr)	36	521	7	14.5	72
Lawayne McCoy (Tr)	27	403	3	14.9	34

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Angelo Hutchinson	84	3	0	2	5
Koen Entringer (Tr)	73	4	0	1	3
Clev Lubin	59	13	8	7	3
Corey Gordon	53	3	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Clev Lubin	59	13	8	7	3
Tyler Thompson (Tr)	26	8	7	1	1
Adonijah Green	31	6	4	4	0
Antonio Watts	42	7	3	2	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Angelo Hutchinson	84	3	0	2	5
Tayon Holloway	42	4	1	0	4
Clev Lubin	59	13	8	7	3