Virginia at SMU - 2026 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 17th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Gerald J. Ford Stadium - University Park, TX

Cavaliers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (22 - 26)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (29 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 3.5 (#15)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SMU coming off BYE
UVA is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: SMU -6 (SP+ SMU -2)
Projected Score: UVA: 24 - SMU: 30 (53)
SMU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
UVA Travel: 1087 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Mustangs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (38 - 17)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (36 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#35)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UVA Players
SMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Virginia's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	Virginia vs NC State	-3.5
Sat 9/12	Virginia vs Norfolk State	-32
Sat 9/19	Virginia at West Virginia	-8
Sat 9/26	Virginia vs Delaware	-24.5
Sat 10/3	Virginia at Florida State	+2
Sat 10/10	Virginia vs Syracuse	-18.5
Sat 10/17	Virginia at SMU	+6
Fri 10/23	Virginia vs Duke	-6.5
Sat 10/31	Virginia at Wake Forest	+0
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/14	Virginia vs California	-10.5
Sat 11/21	Virginia vs North Carolina	-12
Sat 11/28	Virginia at Virginia Tech	-8

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule

SMU's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/7	SMU at Florida State	-1.5
Sat 9/12	SMU vs UC Davis	-35
Sat 9/19	SMU at Louisville	+1.5
Sat 9/26	SMU vs Missouri State	-31
Sat 10/3	SMU vs Boston College	-18.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	SMU vs Virginia	-6
Fri 10/23	SMU vs California	-13.5
Fri 10/30	SMU at Syracuse	-16.5
Fri 11/6	SMU vs Virginia Tech	-16
Sat 11/14	SMU vs Wake Forest	-8
Sat 11/21	SMU at Notre Dame	+17.5
Sat 11/28	SMU at Stanford	-14

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA	#64 (.18)	42% (82)	30.8	44% (63)	3.04 (53)	180	41% (79)	239	3.56 (82)	#17 (.06)	37% (20)	19.6	39% (30)	37% (22)	3.01 (17)	44.1	1	1.4
SMU	#30 (.23)	43% (64)	32.2	42% (93)	2.9 (75)	134	44% (39)	283	3.89 (53)	#9 (.03)	40% (52)	20.5	38% (18)	43% (90)	2.79 (12)	70.8	1.5	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Offense	14	30.8	28.6	41.6%	3.56	1	22	419	180	239	4.6	50%	49%	44%	41%	14%	.18
SMU Defense	13	20.5	19.2	40.2%	2.79	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	55%	38%	43%	19%	.03

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Defense	14	19.6	23.2	37.4%	3.01	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	39%	37%	18%	.06
SMU Offense	13	32.2	36	42.6%	3.89	1.5	21	417	134	283	4.4	43%	55%	42%	44%	17%	.23

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Virginia	14	32:16	21.6	50%	47%	5.3	44.1	1	1.4	4.8	2.1	3	30.7
SMU	13	26:52	20.7	41%	67%	7	70.8	1.5	2.2	6.3	2.8	3	27.6

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Offense	14	50% (66)	44% (63)	38.9	179.9	4.6	29 (11)	.19 (30)	3.04 (53)	81% (11)	8% (23)	1.06 (31)
SMU Defense	13	43% (8)	38% (18)	-	-	-	-	-.08 (5)	2.76 (46)	59% (8)	10% (45)	0.78 (4)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Defense	14	51% (77)	39% (30)	-	-	-	-	.04 (33)	2.75 (42)	71% (70)	9% (77)	0.92 (46)
SMU Offense	13	43% (119)	42% (93)	30.8	133.9	4.4	25 (70)	.11 (70)	2.9 (75)	79% (19)	10% (74)	1 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Offense	14	49% (71)	41% (79)	22.5	35.1	239.1	6.8	10.6	18 (50)	10 (60)	.24 (76)	1.5 (73)	32% (85)	33% (34)	.36 (46)	6% (65)	1.9 (114)
SMU Defense	13	55% (130)	43% (90)	-	-	-	-	-	-	18 (6)	.19 (42)	1.5 (32)	32% (57)	33% (109)	.29 (68)	8% (7)	1.9 (44)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Defense	14	47% (53)	37% (22)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (38)	.15 (24)	1.5 (44)	32% (59)	23% (3)	.11 (8)	9% (5)	1.9 (25)
SMU Offense	13	55% (20)	44% (39)	23.5	35.4	283.1	8	12.1	26 (14)	13 (108)	.4 (23)	1.6 (37)	32% (72)	32% (47)	.39 (37)	7% (114)	2.1 (34)

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 5.70 #39
Virginia's Offense Rating: 11.32 #64
Virginia's Defense Rating: 10.62 #29
2026 Talent Rating: 820.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Virginia's 2026 Expected Record: 10.5 - 3.5
Virginia's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.1 #31
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #56
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #19

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 5.70 SMU: 14.17

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 11.1 SMU: 13.4

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 14.17 #26
SMU's Offense Rating: 15.10 #33
SMU's Defense Rating: 10.16 #27
2026 Talent Rating: 758.00 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 9 #42
SMU's 2026 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
SMU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4 #23
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #22
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5 #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.2

Virginia's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 30
Virginia 24

Projected Total Points: 53

SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

SMU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Virginia	7	SMU	33	SMU -11.5	SMU	54.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
SMU	1	1	0 Overs
Virginia	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

(#39) UVA at (#26) SMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UVA	SMU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#39	#26
SP+SP+	#31	#23
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#47	#63
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#42

Virginia Injury Report

SMU Injury Report

Virginia on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	SMU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#82	#52
ExplosiveExp	#43	#27
PPAPPA	#64	#9
PowerPwr	#64	#27
SP+SP+	#56	#25
Pts POPPO	#82	#12
HavocHav	#39	#15

Virginia Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#63	#18
Run ExplRExp	#31	#4
PPAExp	#30	#5
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#53	#46
Stuff RateStuff	#32	#23
TackleTak	-	NR

Virginia Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#79	#90
Pass ExplPExl	#73	#32
PPAExp	#76	#42
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#23	#45
DB HavocDB	#65	#7

SMU on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	UVA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#64	#20
ExplosiveExp	#15	#35
PPAPPA	#30	#17
PowerPwr	#33	#29
SP+SP+	#22	#19
Pts POPPO	#53	#17
HavocHav	#99	#23

SMU Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#93	#30
Run ExplRExp	#56	#46
PPAExp	#70	#33
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#75	#42
Stuff RateStuff	#82	#68
TackleTak	-	NR

SMU Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#39	#22
Pass ExplPExl	#37	#44
PPAExp	#23	#24
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#74	#77
DB HavocDB	#114	#5

Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'26 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Virginia in 2024 (33-7)

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Beau Pribula (Tr)	182	270	67%	1946	11	9	7.2
Eli Holstein (Tr)	77	125	62%	1081	12	6	8.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jekail Middlebrook (Tr)	140	752	4	5.4	72
Solomon Beebe (Tr)	56	338	6	6.0	81
Beau Pribula (Tr)	95	297	6	3.1	49
Peyton Lewis (Tr)	70	290	7	4.1	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacquon Gibson (Tr)	63	616	0	9.8	50
Jahmal Edrine	46	564	1	12.3	37
Jekail Middlebrook (Tr)	40	412	3	10.3	48
Tyson Davis (Tr)	25	323	2	12.9	36

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Jones (Tr)	66	5	0	1
Jalen McNair (Tr)	50	2	1	4
Brandyn Hillman (Tr)	49	3	0	3
Landon Danley	48	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zion Wilson (Tr)	42	10	6	4	1
Nnanna Anyanwu (Tr)	21	7	5	4	1
Fisher Camac	44	6	4	2	4
Jason Hammond	33	3	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fisher Camac	44	6	4	2	4
Jalen McNair (Tr)	50	2	0	1	4
Justin Ross (Tr)	32	2	1	3	4

SMU's OC Rob Likens (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kevin Jennings	300	454	66%	3641	26	13	8.0
Charlie Fiser	4	4	100%	30	0	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)	233	952	13	4.1	33
Derrick McFall	35	189	4	5.4	48
Dramekco Green	25	90	1	3.6	15
Kevin Jennings	70	54	4	0.8	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Yamir Knight	54	637	5	11.8	61
Yannick Smith (Tr)	44	583	5	13.3	59
Jalen Cooper	19	321	2	16.9	75
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)	34	245	1	7.2	42

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Booker	69	3	1	4	2
Alex Kilgore	60	4	0	0	2
Jarvis Lee Jr.	55	12	4	4	2
Terry Webb	46	7	6	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Terry Webb	46	7	6	2	4
Marques White (Tr)	43	11	5	3	1
Jarvis Lee Jr.	55	12	4	4	2
Ira Singleton (Tr)	17	3	3	6	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Miyazono	44	5	2	0	8
Marcellus Barnes Jr.	32	2	0	0	6
Terry Webb	46	7	6	2	4