Virginia at SMU - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Virginia Cavaliers at SMU Mustangs

SMU logo
Saturday, October 17th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Gerald J. Ford Stadium - University Park, TX  (ACC)

 
Cavaliers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (22 - 26)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (29 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 3 (#14)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
SMU coming off BYE
UVA is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: SMU -5.5  (SP+ SMU -2)

Projected Score: UVA: 24 - SMU: 29 (53)
SMU Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
UVA Travel: 1087 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Mustangs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (38 - 17)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (36 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 3 (#14)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
 
Virginia's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 Virginia vs NC State-5
Sat 9/12 Virginia vs Norfolk State-34.5
Sat 9/19 Virginia at West Virginia-8.5
Sat 9/26 Virginia vs Delaware-22.5
Sat 10/3 Virginia at Florida State-0.5
Sat 10/10 Virginia vs Syracuse-18.5
Sat 10/17 Virginia at SMU+5.5
Fri 10/23 Virginia vs Duke-6.5
Sat 10/31 Virginia at Wake Forest-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/14 Virginia vs California-10.5
Sat 11/21 Virginia vs North Carolina-14
Sat 11/28 Virginia at Virginia Tech-9

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
SMU's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/7 SMU at Florida State-3.5
Sat 9/12 SMU vs UC Davis-37.5
Sat 9/19 SMU at Louisville+1
Sat 9/26 SMU vs Missouri State-26
Sat 10/3 SMU vs Boston College-19.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 SMU vs Virginia-5.5
Fri 10/23 SMU vs California-13.5
Fri 10/30 SMU at Syracuse-16.5
Fri 11/6 SMU vs Virginia Tech-17
Sat 11/14 SMU vs Wake Forest-9
Sat 11/21 SMU at Notre Dame+15.5
Sat 11/28 SMU at Stanford-16.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA#64 (.18)42% (82)30.844% (63)3.04 (53)18041% (79)2393.56 (82)#17 (.06)37% (20)19.639% (30)37% (22)3.01 (17)44.111.4
SMU#30 (.23)43% (64)32.242% (93)2.9 (75)13444% (39)2833.89 (53)#9 (.03)40% (52)20.538% (18)43% (90)2.79 (12)70.81.52.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Offense1430.828.641.6%3.561224191802394.650%49%44%41%14%.18
SMU Defense1320.519.240.2%2.792.2 - - - - - 43%55%38%43%19%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Defense1419.623.237.4%3.011.4 - - - - - 51%47%39%37%18%.06
SMU Offense1332.23642.6%3.891.5214171342834.443%55%42%44%17%.23

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Virginia1432:1621.650%47%5.344.111.44.82.1330.7
SMU1326:5220.741%67%770.81.52.26.32.8327.6
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Offense1450% (66)44% (63)38.9179.94.629 (11).19 (30)3.04 (53)81% (11)8% (23)1.06 (31)
SMU Defense1343% (8)38% (18) - - - - -.08 (5)2.76 (46)59% (8)10% (45)0.78 (4)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Defense1451% (77)39% (30) - - - - .04 (33)2.75 (42)71% (70)9% (77)0.92 (46)
SMU Offense1343% (119)42% (93)30.8133.94.425 (70).11 (70)2.9 (75)79% (19)10% (74)1 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Offense1449% (71)41% (79)22.535.1239.16.810.618 (50)10 (60).24 (76)1.5 (73)32% (85)33% (34).36 (46)6% (65)1.9 (114)
SMU Defense1355% (130)43% (90) - - - - - - 18 (6).19 (42)1.5 (32)32% (57)33% (109).29 (68)8% (7)1.9 (44)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Defense1447% (53)37% (22) - - - - - - 14 (38).15 (24)1.5 (44)32% (59)23% (3).11 (8)9% (5)1.9 (25)
SMU Offense1355% (20)44% (39)23.535.4283.1812.126 (14)13 (108).4 (23)1.6 (37)32% (72)32% (47).39 (37)7% (114)2.1 (34)

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 11.13  #34
Virginia's Offense Rating: 15.05  #57
Virginia's Defense Rating: 8.92  #28
2026 Talent Rating: 920.00  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #73
Virginia's 2026 Expected Record: 9.0 - 3.0
Virginia's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.1  #31
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #56
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.1  #19

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 11.13   SMU: 16.51

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 11.1   SMU: 13.4




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 16.51  #24
SMU's Offense Rating: 19.68  #24
SMU's Defense Rating: 10.06  #33
2026 Talent Rating: 780.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 15  #27
SMU's 2026 Expected Record: 9.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4  #23
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #22
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.2

Virginia's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 29
Virginia 24


Projected Total Points: 53
SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

SMU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Virginia7SMU33SMU -11.5SMU54.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU110 Overs
Virginia001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0

(#34) UVA at (#24) SMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUVASMU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #34 #24
SP+SP+ #31 #23
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #29 #64
Blue ChipsBC% #73 #27
Virginia Notes
(2/15) Vibes: Hopeful, '25 was big boost, want more
(2/6) WR Edrine (#2 LY) arrested, no longer w team
(2/6) QB Pribula (Miz) is good, mobile, rec from injury
(2/6) RB 3 portals, good unit w depth & rotation
(2/6) WR counting on 3 portals & depth w limited exp
(2/6) OL good LY & has 3 back and decent depth
(2/6) DL added 7 portals, lots of G5 risers. Unclear
(2/6) LB corp strong that can go at least 6 deep
(2/6) CB & Saf each 4 portal adds. CB looks like big ?
(2/4) Overall talent #'s back to normal after '25 jump
(2/2) HC Elliott saved job LY, but now has to rebuild
Virginia Injury Report
SMU Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Very high, love P4/ACC, good staff & NIL
(2/13) New DC Crum 1st time PC (Prev DC -> Cowboys)
(2/7) QB Jennings a good one, but must cut TOs
(2/3) HC Lashlee underrated, OC is new play caller
(2/3) RB Raphael (Cal) a big sign, have depth options
(2/3) WR have 3 good frontline starters, depth unproven
(2/3) OL is strong, 3 good starters back w depth.
(2/3) DL complete rebuild w 4 portals but has options
(2/3) LB strong unit, 3 top perf starters w/ good depth
(2/3) CBs have good 4 rotation, S lacks exp but has parts
(2/3) Get thru early slate & poss huge shot @ ND in Nov
SMU Injury Report
Virginia on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffSMU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #82 #52
ExplosiveExp #43 #27
PPAPPA #64 #9
PowerPwr #57 #33
SP+SP+ #56 #25
Pts POPPO #82 #12
HavocHav #39 #15
Virginia Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffSMU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #63 #18
Run ExplRExp #31 #4
PPAExp #30 #5
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #53 #46
Stuff RateStuff #32 #23
TackleTak - NR
Virginia Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffSMU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #79 #90
Pass ExplPExl #73 #32
PPAExp #76 #42
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #23 #45
DB HavocDB #65 #7
SMU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatSMU OffUVA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #64 #20
ExplosiveExp #15 #35
PPAPPA #30 #17
PowerPwr #24 #28
SP+SP+ #22 #19
Pts POPPO #53 #17
HavocHav #99 #23
SMU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffUVA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #93 #30
Run ExplRExp #56 #46
PPAExp #70 #33
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #75 #42
Stuff RateStuff #82 #68
TackleTak - NR
SMU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatSMU OffUVA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #39 #22
Pass ExplPExl #37 #44
PPAExp #23 #24
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #74 #77
DB HavocDB #114 #5
Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'26 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
SMU beat Virginia in 2024 (33-7)

  
UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Beau Pribula (Tr)18227067%19461197.2
Eli Holstein (Tr)7712562%10811268.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jekail Middlebrook (Tr)14075245.472
Solomon Beebe (Tr)5633866.081
Beau Pribula (Tr)9529763.149
Peyton Lewis (Tr)7029074.132
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacquon Gibson (Tr)6361609.850
Dashawn Martin33507415.475
Jekail Middlebrook (Tr)40412310.348
Tyson Davis (Tr)25323212.936

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Jones (Tr)665001
Kamren Robinson644221
Jalen McNair (Tr)502014
Maddox Marcellus493211
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zion Wilson (Tr)4210641
Nnanna Anyanwu (Tr)217541
Fisher Camac446424
Jason Hammond333340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donavon Platt342006
Jalen McNair (Tr)502014
Fisher Camac446424

SMU's OC Rob Likens (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings30045466%364126138.0
Ty Hawkins11100%9009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)233952134.133
Derrick McFall3518945.448
Dramekco Green259013.615
Kevin Jennings705440.826
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Yamir Knight54637511.861
Yannick Smith (Tr)44583513.359
Jalen Cooper19321216.975
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)3424517.242

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Maurice Crum Jr (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Booker693142
Jimmy Wyrick621008
Alex Kilgore604002
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques White (Tr)4311531
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
Ira Singleton (Tr)173360
Brandon Miyazono445208
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Miyazono445208
Jimmy Wyrick621008
Marcellus Barnes Jr.322006