Missouri State at SMU - 2026 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Gerald J. Ford Stadium - University Park, TX

Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Casey Woods (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (23 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#59)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MOST coming off BYE
SMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: SMU -31 (SP+ SMU -24)
Projected Score: MOST: 12 - SMU: 43 (54)
SMU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 52%
MOST Travel: 361 miles

Mustangs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (38 - 17)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (36 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#35)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MOST Players
SMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Missouri State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Missouri State at Texas A&M	+43
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/26	Missouri State at SMU	+31

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule

SMU's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/7	SMU at Florida State	-1.5
Sat 9/12	SMU vs UC Davis	-35
Sat 9/19	SMU at Louisville	+1.5
Sat 9/26	SMU vs Missouri State	-31
Sat 10/3	SMU vs Boston College	-18.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	SMU vs Virginia	-6
Fri 10/23	SMU vs California	-13.5
Fri 10/30	SMU at Syracuse	-16.5
Fri 11/6	SMU vs Virginia Tech	-16
Sat 11/14	SMU vs Wake Forest	-8
Sat 11/21	SMU at Notre Dame	+17.5
Sat 11/28	SMU at Stanford	-14

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MOST	#69 (.18)	39% (105)	25.6	37% (124)	2.49 (131)	114	42% (59)	280	3.69 (68)	#114 (.23)	43% (84)	28.8	43% (72)	43% (92)	3.89 (88)	66.5	1.4	1.2
SMU	#30 (.23)	43% (64)	32.2	42% (93)	2.9 (75)	134	44% (39)	283	3.89 (53)	#9 (.03)	40% (52)	20.5	38% (18)	43% (90)	2.79 (12)	70.8	1.5	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MOST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MOST Offense	13	25.6	22.5	39.3%	3.69	1.4	20	393	114	280	3.6	42%	56%	37%	42%	24%	.18
SMU Defense	13	20.5	19.2	40.2%	2.79	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	55%	38%	43%	19%	.03

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MOST Defense	13	28.8	31.3	42.7%	3.89	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	43%	43%	15%	.23
SMU Offense	13	32.2	36	42.6%	3.89	1.5	21	417	134	283	4.4	43%	55%	42%	44%	17%	.23

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Missouri State	13	31:20	20.5	36%	62%	7.6	66.5	1.4	1.2	4.1	1.8	0	29.5
SMU	13	26:52	20.7	41%	67%	7	70.8	1.5	2.2	6.3	2.8	3	27.6

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MOST Offense	13	42% (124)	37% (124)	31.6	113.7	3.6	12 (122)	.03 (113)	2.49 (131)	61% (126)	16% (135)	1.07 (29)
SMU Defense	13	43% (8)	38% (18)	-	-	-	-	-.08 (5)	2.76 (46)	59% (8)	10% (45)	0.78 (4)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MOST Defense	13	48% (48)	43% (72)	-	-	-	-	.16 (102)	2.76 (47)	83% (129)	8% (119)	1.03 (102)
SMU Offense	13	43% (119)	42% (93)	30.8	133.9	4.4	25 (70)	.11 (70)	2.9 (75)	79% (19)	10% (74)	1 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MOST Offense	13	56% (17)	42% (59)	21.3	33.5	279.7	8.4	13.1	30 (75)	11 (88)	.34 (41)	1.8 (8)	36% (128)	30% (77)	.27 (84)	9% (130)	2.2 (16)
SMU Defense	13	55% (130)	43% (90)	-	-	-	-	-	-	18 (6)	.19 (42)	1.5 (32)	32% (57)	33% (109)	.29 (68)	8% (7)	1.9 (44)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MOST Defense	13	50% (87)	43% (92)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.33 (107)	1.6 (70)	30% (90)	27% (29)	.33 (88)	7% (20)	2.3 (129)
SMU Offense	13	55% (20)	44% (39)	23.5	35.4	283.1	8	12.1	26 (14)	13 (108)	.4 (23)	1.6 (37)	32% (72)	32% (47)	.39 (37)	7% (114)	2.1 (34)

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -23.30 #136
Missouri State's Offense Rating: -0.67 #135
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 27.63 #133
2026 Talent Rating: 342.00 #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
Missouri State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Missouri State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.7 #108
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #77
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #118

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 445.2
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -23.30 SMU: 14.17

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -10.7 SMU: 13.4

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 14.17 #26
SMU's Offense Rating: 15.10 #33
SMU's Defense Rating: 10.16 #27
2026 Talent Rating: 758.00 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 9 #42
SMU's 2026 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
SMU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4 #23
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #22
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5 #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.5
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Missouri State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 43
Missouri State 12

Projected Total Points: 54

SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

SMU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Missouri State	10	SMU	28	SMU -29.5	Missouri State	60.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
SMU	1	0	0 Overs
Missouri State	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#136) MOST at (#26) SMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MOST	SMU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#136	#26
SP+SP+	#108	#23
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#130	#63
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#42

Missouri State Injury Report

SMU Injury Report

Missouri State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	SMU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#105	#52
ExplosiveExp	#1	#27
PPAPPA	#69	#9
PowerPwr	#135	#27
SP+SP+	#77	#25
Pts POPPO	#68	#12
HavocHav	#136	#15

Missouri State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#124	#18
Run ExplRExp	#29	#4
PPAExp	#113	#5
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#131	#46
Stuff RateStuff	#135	#23
TackleTak	-	NR

Missouri State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	MOST Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#59	#90
Pass ExplPExl	#8	#32
PPAExp	#41	#42
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#135	#45
DB HavocDB	#130	#7

SMU on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	MOST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#64	#84
ExplosiveExp	#15	#101
PPAPPA	#30	#114
PowerPwr	#33	#133
SP+SP+	#22	#118
Pts POPPO	#53	#88
HavocHav	#99	#83

SMU Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	MOST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#93	#72
Run ExplRExp	#56	#102
PPAExp	#70	#102
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#75	#47
Stuff RateStuff	#82	#60
TackleTak	-	NR

SMU Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	MOST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#39	#92
Pass ExplPExl	#37	#70
PPAExp	#23	#107
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#74	#119
DB HavocDB	#114	#20

Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'26 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'26 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Missouri State last year (28-10)

MOST's OC Mark Cala (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Skyler Locklear (Tr)	117	211	56%	1418	13	11	6.7
Deuce Bailey	23	47	49%	335	2	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Skyler Locklear (Tr)	103	396	8	3.8	63
Ramone Green Jr.	52	278	1	5.3	45
Deuce Bailey	27	81	1	3.0	20
Henry Belin IV	5	41	0	8.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jmariyae Robinson	44	632	7	14.4	52
Ramone Green Jr.	29	446	3	15.4	76
Connor Lair	6	62	1	10.3	33
Mekhi Miller (Tr)	9	58	0	6.4	8

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC Jack Curtis (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Lloyd	76	4	2	2	2
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	0	5
Dylan Dixson	50	4	1	0	3
Christian Ford	47	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mitchell Toney	23	5	3	6	2
Cooper Roy	11	4	2	2	0
Caden Wiest	15	3	2	2	2
Davon Townley Jr.	20	2	2	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jordan Dunbar	21	1	0	11
Thomas Anderson	60	2	1	5
Dylan Dixson	50	4	1	3

SMU's OC Rob Likens (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kevin Jennings	300	454	66%	3641	26	13	8.0
Charlie Fiser	4	4	100%	30	0	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)	233	952	13	4.1	33
Derrick McFall	35	189	4	5.4	48
Dramekco Green	25	90	1	3.6	15
Kevin Jennings	70	54	4	0.8	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Yamir Knight	54	637	5	11.8	61
Yannick Smith (Tr)	44	583	5	13.3	59
Jalen Cooper	19	321	2	16.9	75
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)	34	245	1	7.2	42

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Booker	69	3	1	4	2
Alex Kilgore	60	4	0	0	2
Jarvis Lee Jr.	55	12	4	4	2
Terry Webb	46	7	6	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Terry Webb	46	7	6	2	4
Marques White (Tr)	43	11	5	3	1
Jarvis Lee Jr.	55	12	4	4	2
Ira Singleton (Tr)	17	3	3	6	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Miyazono	44	5	2	0	8
Marcellus Barnes Jr.	32	2	0	0	6
Terry Webb	46	7	6	2	4