Missouri State at SMU - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Missouri State Bears at SMU Mustangs

SMU logo
Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Gerald J. Ford Stadium - University Park, TX

 
Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Casey Woods (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (23 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 2 (#94)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
MOST coming off BYE
SMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: SMU -26  (SP+ SMU -24)
Projected Score: MOST: 14 - SMU: 40 (54)
SMU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 58%
MOST Travel: 361 miles
Mustangs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (38 - 17)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (36 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 3 (#14)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
 
Missouri State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Missouri State at Texas A&M+35.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/26 Missouri State at SMU+26

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule
SMU's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/7 SMU at Florida State-3.5
Sat 9/12 SMU vs UC Davis-37.5
Sat 9/19 SMU at Louisville+1
Sat 9/26 SMU vs Missouri State-26
Sat 10/3 SMU vs Boston College-19.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 SMU vs Virginia-5.5
Fri 10/23 SMU vs California-13.5
Fri 10/30 SMU at Syracuse-16.5
Fri 11/6 SMU vs Virginia Tech-17
Sat 11/14 SMU vs Wake Forest-9
Sat 11/21 SMU at Notre Dame+15.5
Sat 11/28 SMU at Stanford-16.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MOST#69 (.18)39% (105)25.637% (124)2.49 (131)11442% (59)2803.69 (68)#114 (.23)43% (84)28.843% (72)43% (92)3.89 (88)66.51.41.2
SMU#30 (.23)43% (64)32.242% (93)2.9 (75)13444% (39)2833.89 (53)#9 (.03)40% (52)20.538% (18)43% (90)2.79 (12)70.81.52.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MOST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MOST Offense1325.622.539.3%3.691.4203931142803.642%56%37%42%24%.18
SMU Defense1320.519.240.2%2.792.2 - - - - - 43%55%38%43%19%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MOST Defense1328.831.342.7%3.891.2 - - - - - 48%50%43%43%15%.23
SMU Offense1332.23642.6%3.891.5214171342834.443%55%42%44%17%.23

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Missouri State1331:2020.536%62%7.666.51.41.24.11.8029.5
SMU1326:5220.741%67%770.81.52.26.32.8327.6
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MOST Offense1342% (124)37% (124)31.6113.73.612 (122).03 (113)2.49 (131)61% (126)16% (135)1.07 (29)
SMU Defense1343% (8)38% (18) - - - - -.08 (5)2.76 (46)59% (8)10% (45)0.78 (4)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MOST Defense1348% (48)43% (72) - - - - .16 (102)2.76 (47)83% (129)8% (119)1.03 (102)
SMU Offense1343% (119)42% (93)30.8133.94.425 (70).11 (70)2.9 (75)79% (19)10% (74)1 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MOST Offense1356% (17)42% (59)21.333.5279.78.413.130 (75)11 (88).34 (41)1.8 (8)36% (128)30% (77).27 (84)9% (130)2.2 (16)
SMU Defense1355% (130)43% (90) - - - - - - 18 (6).19 (42)1.5 (32)32% (57)33% (109).29 (68)8% (7)1.9 (44)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MOST Defense1350% (87)43% (92) - - - - - - 8 (100).33 (107)1.6 (70)30% (90)27% (29).33 (88)7% (20)2.3 (129)
SMU Offense1355% (20)44% (39)23.535.4283.1812.126 (14)13 (108).4 (23)1.6 (37)32% (72)32% (47).39 (37)7% (114)2.1 (34)

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -8.06  #109
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 9.02  #95
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 22.08  #118
2026 Talent Rating: 392.00  #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #73
Missouri State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 2.0
Missouri State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.7  #108
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6  #77
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.8  #118

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 485.09
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -8.06   SMU: 16.51

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -10.7   SMU: 13.4




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 16.51  #24
SMU's Offense Rating: 19.68  #24
SMU's Defense Rating: 10.06  #33
2026 Talent Rating: 780.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 15  #27
SMU's 2026 Expected Record: 9.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4  #23
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #22
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.5
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Missouri State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 40
Missouri State 14

Projected Total Points: 54
SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

SMU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Missouri State10SMU28SMU -29.5Missouri State60.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU100 Overs
Missouri State011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#109) MOST at (#24) SMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMOSTSMU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #109 #24
SP+SP+ #108 #23
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #130 #64
Blue ChipsBC% #73 #27
Missouri State Notes
(2/24) HC Casey Woods was SMU OC, solid rising hire
Missouri State Injury Report
SMU Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Very high, love P4/ACC, good staff & NIL
(2/13) New DC Crum 1st time PC (Prev DC -> Cowboys)
(2/7) QB Jennings a good one, but must cut TOs
(2/3) HC Lashlee underrated, OC is new play caller
(2/3) RB Raphael (Cal) a big sign, have depth options
(2/3) WR have 3 good frontline starters, depth unproven
(2/3) OL is strong, 3 good starters back w depth.
(2/3) DL complete rebuild w 4 portals but has options
(2/3) LB strong unit, 3 top perf starters w/ good depth
(2/3) CBs have good 4 rotation, S lacks exp but has parts
(2/3) Get thru early slate & poss huge shot @ ND in Nov
SMU Injury Report
Missouri State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
MOST OffSMU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #105 #52
ExplosiveExp #1 #27
PPAPPA #69 #9
PowerPwr #95 #33
SP+SP+ #77 #25
Pts POPPO #68 #12
HavocHav #136 #15
Missouri State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
MOST OffSMU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #124 #18
Run ExplRExp #29 #4
PPAExp #113 #5
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #131 #46
Stuff RateStuff #135 #23
TackleTak - NR
Missouri State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
MOST OffSMU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #59 #90
Pass ExplPExl #8 #32
PPAExp #41 #42
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #135 #45
DB HavocDB #130 #7
SMU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatSMU OffMOST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #64 #84
ExplosiveExp #15 #101
PPAPPA #30 #114
PowerPwr #24 #118
SP+SP+ #22 #118
Pts POPPO #53 #88
HavocHav #99 #83
SMU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffMOST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #93 #72
Run ExplRExp #56 #102
PPAExp #70 #102
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #75 #47
Stuff RateStuff #82 #60
TackleTak - NR
SMU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatSMU OffMOST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #39 #92
Pass ExplPExl #37 #70
PPAExp #23 #107
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #74 #119
DB HavocDB #114 #20
Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'26 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'26 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
SMU beat Missouri State last year (28-10)

  
MOST's OC Mark Cala (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Skyler Locklear (Tr)11721156%141813116.7
Cole Feuerbacher6875%28003.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Skyler Locklear (Tr)10339683.863
Ramone Green Jr.5227815.345
Henry Belin IV (Tr)54108.215
Reggie Branch62704.510
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jmariyae Robinson44632714.452
Ramone Green Jr.29446315.476
Connor Lair662110.333
Mekhi Miller (Tr)95806.48

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC Jack Curtis (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jared Lloyd764222
Thomas Anderson602105
Dylan Dixson504103
Christian Ford470003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davon Townley Jr.202213
Caden Wiest153222
Cooper Roy114220
Jared Lloyd764222
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Dunbar2110011
Thomas Anderson602105
Dylan Dixson504103

SMU's OC Rob Likens (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings30045466%364126138.0
Ty Hawkins11100%9009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)233952134.133
Derrick McFall3518945.448
Dramekco Green259013.615
Kevin Jennings705440.826
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Yamir Knight54637511.861
Yannick Smith (Tr)44583513.359
Jalen Cooper19321216.975
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)3424517.242

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Maurice Crum Jr (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Booker693142
Jimmy Wyrick621008
Alex Kilgore604002
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques White (Tr)4311531
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
Ira Singleton (Tr)173360
Brandon Miyazono445208
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Miyazono445208
Jimmy Wyrick621008
Marcellus Barnes Jr.322006