Texas State at San Diego State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State Aztecs

Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Snapdragon Stadium - San Diego, CA (Pac-12)

Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 4 (#42)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)

SDSU is playing their 5th straight game
TXST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: San Diego State -3 (SP+ SDSU -4)
Projected Score: TXST: 25 - SDSU: 28 (53)
SDSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
TXST Travel: 1149 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Aztecs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (31 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 3.7 (#35)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 6)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
SDSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Texas State at Texas	+24.5
Sat 9/12	Texas State vs UTSA	-5
Sat 9/19	Texas State vs North Texas	+1
Sat 9/26	Texas State vs Incarnate Word	-23.5
Sat 10/3	Texas State at San Diego State	+3
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/15	Texas State vs Colorado State	-15.5
Sat 10/24	Texas State vs Utah State	-10
Sat 10/31	Texas State at Boise State	+5
Sat 11/7	Texas State at Oregon State	-12.5
Sat 11/14	Texas State vs Fresno State	-7
Sat 11/21	Texas State vs Washington State	-3

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

San Diego State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	San Diego State vs Portland State	-24
Sat 9/12	San Diego State at UCLA	+4
Sat 9/19	San Diego State vs James Madison	-1
Sat 9/26	San Diego State at Toledo	+3
Sat 10/3	San Diego State vs Texas State	-3
Sat 10/10	San Diego State at Oregon State	-13
Sat 10/17	San Diego State vs Fresno State	-7
Sat 10/24	San Diego State at Colorado State	-11
Sat 10/31	San Diego State vs Washington State	-3.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/14	San Diego State vs Utah State	-10.5
Fri 11/20	San Diego State at Boise State	+5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	#6 (.33)	46% (24)	36.5	46% (43)	3.13 (34)	223	47% (25)	251	4.42 (21)	#76 (.18)	41% (61)	29	40% (48)	43% (87)	3.98 (98)	59.5	1.3	0.9
SDSU	#93 (.13)	42% (76)	26.4	46% (40)	3.34 (10)	199	36% (121)	158	3.51 (90)	#4 (-.01)	35% (10)	15.4	38% (24)	33% (4)	2.42 (3)	55.9	1.2	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SDSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	13	36.5	34.2	46.3%	4.42	1.3	23	474	223	251	5.2	56%	42%	46%	47%	12%	.33
SDSU Defense	13	15.4	6.8	35.1%	2.42	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	38%	33%	15%	-.01

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	13	29	32.8	41.2%	3.98	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	40%	43%	16%	.18
SDSU Offense	13	26.4	31.2	41.8%	3.51	1.2	18	356	199	158	4.8	61%	37%	46%	36%	13%	.13

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	13	29:10	22.9	46%	60%	6.9	59.5	1.3	0.9	7.2	1.9	2	27.4
San Diego State	13	30:17	17.9	31%	52%	6.2	55.9	1.2	1.4	4.8	2.5	5	31.7

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	13	56% (22)	46% (43)	42.9	222.7	5.2	36 (4)	.28 (7)	3.13 (34)	67% (102)	9% (42)	1.15 (10)
SDSU Defense	13	48% (46)	38% (24)	-	-	-	-	.06 (43)	3.04 (99)	63% (15)	8% (113)	0.96 (70)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	13	52% (101)	40% (48)	-	-	-	-	.08 (58)	2.67 (25)	70% (58)	11% (25)	1.06 (110)
SDSU Offense	13	61% (9)	46% (40)	41.8	198.9	4.8	25 (70)	.17 (43)	3.34 (10)	80% (16)	7% (22)	0.9 (94)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	13	42% (115)	47% (25)	19.5	27.8	250.8	9	12.9	21 (86)	7 (7)	.42 (17)	1.6 (31)	29% (29)	38% (9)	.54 (6)	4% (10)	2 (71)
SDSU Defense	13	50% (90)	33% (4)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (55)	-.04 (2)	1.4 (16)	35% (17)	23% (6)	.06 (3)	7% (22)	1.8 (14)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	13	46% (44)	43% (87)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (123)	.3 (89)	1.6 (97)	33% (42)	32% (98)	.28 (64)	5% (114)	1.9 (30)
SDSU Offense	13	37% (128)	36% (121)	12.8	22.3	157.9	7.1	12.4	10 (106)	10 (7)	.09 (127)	1.7 (20)	30% (41)	20% (136)	.04 (132)	6% (48)	1.9 (88)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.15 #73
Texas State's Offense Rating: 13.85 #47
Texas State's Defense Rating: 21.00 #101
2026 Talent Rating: 616.00 #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #79
Texas State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.0 - 4.0
Texas State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #65
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.15 San Diego State: 2.88

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 2.3 San Diego State: 6.7

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 2.88 #84
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 5.01 #106
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 15.95 #63
2026 Talent Rating: 552.00 #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
San Diego State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.3 - 3.7
San Diego State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.7 #43
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.6 #28

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
San Diego State 28
Texas State 25

Projected Total Points: 53

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 6.8

San Diego State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San Diego State	0	0	0 Overs
Texas State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#73) TXST at (#84) SDSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	SDSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#73	#84
SP+SP+	#65	#43
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#86	#99
Blue ChipsBC%	#79	#99

Texas State Injury Report

San Diego State Notes(2/2) Lewis era growing & SDSU is spending NIL $
San Diego State Injury Report

Texas State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	SDSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#24	#10
ExplosiveExp	#16	#23
PPAPPA	#6	#4
PowerPwr	#47	#63
SP+SP+	#15	#28
Pts POPPO	#21	#3
HavocHav	#15	#78

Texas State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#24
Run ExplRExp	#10	#70
PPAExp	#7	#43
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#34	#99
Stuff RateStuff	#36	#109
TackleTak	-	NR

Texas State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#25	#4
Pass ExplPExl	#31	#16
PPAExp	#17	#2
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#42	#113
DB HavocDB	#10	#22

San Diego State on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#76	#61
ExplosiveExp	#112	#110
PPAPPA	#93	#76
PowerPwr	#106	#101
SP+SP+	#90	#117
Pts POPPO	#90	#98
HavocHav	#25	#67

San Diego State Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#40	#48
Run ExplRExp	#94	#110
PPAExp	#43	#58
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#10	#25
Stuff RateStuff	#14	#10
TackleTak	-	NR

San Diego State Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#121	#87
Pass ExplPExl	#20	#97
PPAExp	#127	#89
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#22	#25
DB HavocDB	#48	#114

Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brad Jackson	251	352	71%	3223	21	7	9.2
Shaker Reisig (Tr)	10	19	53%	141	1	2	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brad Jackson	174	744	17	4.3	63
Greg Burrell	100	671	3	6.7	61
Beau Sparks	6	74	1	12.3	49
Shaker Reisig (Tr)	7	1	0	0.1	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Beau Sparks	84	1200	10	14.3	73
Chris Dawn Jr.	65	1007	4	15.5	82
Kylen Evans	15	211	1	14.1	45
Greg Burrell	13	125	0	9.6	23

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Will Windham (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ryan Nolan	72	3	2	2
Ayden Jones	52	1	2	0
Amarion Atwood	29	2	2	3
Cole Nilles	27	3	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donterry Russell	18	6	4	0	1
Chancellor Owens (Tr)	2	1	1	0	0
Ryan Nolan	72	3	0	2	2
Tice Williams	5	1	0	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dexter Ricks Jr. (Tr)	18	1	0	4
Amarion Atwood	29	2	2	3
Ryan Nolan	72	3	2	2

SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Denegal	143	244	59%	1810	9	8	7.4
Bert Emanuel Jr.	9	16	56%	74	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lucky Sutton	253	1292	10	5.1	50
Christian Washington	97	560	4	5.8	41
Bert Emanuel Jr.	32	273	2	8.5	72
Jayden Denegal	67	103	4	1.5	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Napier	48	632	2	13.2	80
Javion Kinnard (Tr)	18	228	1	12.7	79
Nathan Acevedo	16	190	0	11.9	42
Jacob Bostick	11	157	3	14.3	35

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Demetrius Sumler (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jalen Thomeson (Tr)	86	7	2	1
Dalesean Staley	70	1	0	8
Tano Letuli	27	0	2	1
Malachi Finau	18	1	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Djibril Abdou Rahman (Tr)	5	1	1	1	1
Kai Wallin (Tr)	17	2	1	4	1
Solomon Davis (Tr)	6	1	1	0	0
Malik Gucake	10	3	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dalesean Staley	70	1	0	8
Brady Nassar	14	0	4	3
Jalen Thomeson (Tr)	86	7	2	1