Utah State at Texas State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Utah State Aggies at Texas State Bobcats

Saturday, October 24th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium - San Marcos, TX (Pac-12)

Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (6 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (25 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#56)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)

TXST 2nd straight Home Game
USU coming off BYE
Our Line: Texas State -10 (SP+ TXST -5)
Projected Score: USU: 27 - TXST: 37 (63)
TXST Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
USU Travel: 1127 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 4 (#42)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
USU Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Utah State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Utah State vs Idaho State	-16
Sat 9/12	Utah State at Washington	+30.5
Sat 9/19	Utah State at Utah	+26.5
Sat 9/26	Utah State vs Troy	-3
Sat 10/3	Utah State at Boise State	+12.5
Fri 10/9	Utah State vs Washington State	+4.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24	Utah State at Texas State	+10
Sat 10/31	Utah State vs Colorado State	-8
Sat 11/7	Utah State vs Fresno State	+0.5
Sat 11/14	Utah State at San Diego State	+10.5
Sat 11/21	Utah State at Oregon State	-5
Sat 11/28	Utah State vs TBD	-16

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Texas State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Texas State at Texas	+24.5
Sat 9/12	Texas State vs UTSA	-5
Sat 9/19	Texas State vs North Texas	+1
Sat 9/26	Texas State vs Incarnate Word	-23.5
Sat 10/3	Texas State at San Diego State	+3
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/15	Texas State vs Colorado State	-15.5
Sat 10/24	Texas State vs Utah State	-10
Sat 10/31	Texas State at Boise State	+5
Sat 11/7	Texas State at Oregon State	-12.5
Sat 11/14	Texas State vs Fresno State	-7
Sat 11/21	Texas State vs Washington State	-3

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#47 (.2)	41% (91)	30.9	42% (89)	2.87 (81)	163	41% (85)	247	4.49 (16)	#112 (.22)	43% (91)	28.7	45% (99)	42% (70)	3.77 (76)	60.2	0.8	1.3
TXST	#6 (.33)	46% (24)	36.5	46% (43)	3.13 (34)	223	47% (25)	251	4.42 (21)	#76 (.18)	41% (61)	29	40% (48)	43% (87)	3.98 (98)	59.5	1.3	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Offense	13	30.9	25.2	40.9%	4.49	0.8	21	410	163	247	4.8	47%	52%	42%	41%	16%	.2
TXST Defense	13	29	28.3	41.2%	3.98	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	40%	43%	16%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Defense	13	28.7	37	43.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	45%	42%	13%	.22
TXST Offense	13	36.5	38	46.3%	4.42	1.3	23	474	223	251	5.2	56%	42%	46%	47%	12%	.33

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Utah State	13	27:14	20.6	35%	54%	7.6	60.2	0.8	1.3	4.9	2.2	1	28.2
Texas State	13	29:10	22.9	46%	60%	6.9	59.5	1.3	0.9	7.2	1.9	2	27.4

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Offense	13	47% (95)	42% (89)	34.2	162.9	4.8	25 (40)	.19 (31)	2.87 (81)	71% (75)	11% (119)	1.16 (9)
TXST Defense	13	52% (101)	40% (48)	-	-	-	-	.08 (58)	2.67 (25)	70% (58)	11% (25)	1.06 (110)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Defense	13	47% (28)	45% (99)	-	-	-	-	.21 (124)	3.18 (116)	70% (61)	7% (127)	1.04 (105)
TXST Offense	13	56% (22)	46% (43)	42.9	222.7	5.2	36 (4)	.28 (7)	3.13 (34)	67% (102)	9% (42)	1.15 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Offense	13	52% (45)	41% (85)	18.6	31	246.9	8	13.3	26 (14)	5 (7)	.24 (70)	1.5 (67)	33% (98)	31% (56)	.36 (47)	5% (28)	2.1 (60)
TXST Defense	13	46% (44)	43% (87)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (123)	.3 (89)	1.6 (97)	33% (42)	32% (98)	.28 (64)	5% (114)	1.9 (30)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Defense	13	52% (111)	42% (70)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (38)	.24 (62)	1.5 (24)	29% (112)	33% (114)	.37 (107)	6% (57)	1.9 (26)
TXST Offense	13	42% (115)	47% (25)	19.5	27.8	250.8	9	12.9	21 (86)	7 (7)	.42 (17)	1.6 (31)	29% (29)	38% (9)	.54 (6)	4% (10)	2 (71)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -11.69 #110
Utah State's Offense Rating: 7.36 #89
Utah State's Defense Rating: 24.05 #123
2026 Talent Rating: 546.00 #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Utah State's 2026 Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6
Utah State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.1 #79
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #53
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -11.69 Texas State: 2.575

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -3.1 Texas State: 2.3

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 2.575 #73
Texas State's Offense Rating: 13.85 #47
Texas State's Defense Rating: 21.00 #101
2026 Talent Rating: 616.00 #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #79
Texas State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.0 - 4.0
Texas State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #65
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

Utah State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 37
Utah State 27

Projected Total Points: 63

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2012	11/03	Utah State	38	Texas State	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	0	0	0 Overs
Utah State	1	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#110) USU at (#73) TXST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USU	TXST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#110	#73
SP+SP+	#79	#65
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#102	#86
Blue ChipsBC%	#99	#79

Utah State Injury Report

Texas State Injury Report

Utah State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	TXST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#91	#61
ExplosiveExp	#18	#110
PPAPPA	#47	#76
PowerPwr	#89	#101
SP+SP+	#53	#117
Pts POPPO	#16	#98
HavocHav	#87	#67

Utah State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#89	#48
Run ExplRExp	#9	#110
PPAExp	#31	#58
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#81	#25
Stuff RateStuff	#91	#10
TackleTak	-	NR

Utah State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#85	#87
Pass ExplPExl	#67	#97
PPAExp	#70	#89
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#119	#25
DB HavocDB	#28	#114

Texas State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	USU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#24	#91
ExplosiveExp	#16	#65
PPAPPA	#6	#112
PowerPwr	#47	#123
SP+SP+	#15	#98
Pts POPPO	#21	#76
HavocHav	#15	#114

Texas State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#99
Run ExplRExp	#10	#105
PPAExp	#7	#124
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#34	#116
Stuff RateStuff	#36	#108
TackleTak	-	NR

Texas State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#25	#70
Pass ExplPExl	#31	#24
PPAExp	#17	#62
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#42	#127
DB HavocDB	#10	#57

Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Anthony Garcia	6	7	86%	79	4	0	11.3
McCae Hillstead (Tr)	4	5	80%	33	0	0	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javen Jacobs	65	429	5	6.6	58
Sesi Vailahi (Tr)	42	152	2	3.6	14
Noah White	25	93	0	3.7	20
Anthony Garcia	11	75	1	6.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javon Robinson (Tr)	58	599	4	10.3	46
Javen Jacobs	43	379	3	8.8	30
Anthony Garcia	20	348	2	17.4	74
Eli Wood (Tr)	16	205	2	12.8	38

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brevin Hamblin	110	3	2	0	8
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Carson Tujague	71	4	1	5	1
Tyree Morris	46	6	4	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyree Morris	46	6	4	1	1
Chris Joe	41	6	4	3	1
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Brevin Hamblin	110	3	2	0	8

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brevin Hamblin	110	3	2	0	8
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Noah Flores	26	1	1	0	2

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brad Jackson	251	352	71%	3223	21	7	9.2
Shaker Reisig (Tr)	10	19	53%	141	1	2	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brad Jackson	174	744	17	4.3	63
Greg Burrell	100	671	3	6.7	61
Beau Sparks	6	74	1	12.3	49
Shaker Reisig (Tr)	7	1	0	0.1	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Beau Sparks	84	1200	10	14.3	73
Chris Dawn Jr.	65	1007	4	15.5	82
Kylen Evans	15	211	1	14.1	45
Greg Burrell	13	125	0	9.6	23

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Will Windham (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ryan Nolan	72	3	2	2
Ayden Jones	52	1	2	0
Amarion Atwood	29	2	2	3
Cole Nilles	27	3	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donterry Russell	18	6	4	0	1
Chancellor Owens (Tr)	2	1	1	0	0
Ryan Nolan	72	3	0	2	2
Tice Williams	5	1	0	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dexter Ricks Jr. (Tr)	18	1	0	4
Amarion Atwood	29	2	2	3
Ryan Nolan	72	3	2	2