Texas State at Boise State - 2026 Matchup Preview
Texas State logo   Texas State Bobcats at Boise State Broncos  Boise State logo
Saturday, October 31st 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID  (Pac-12)

 
Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 4 (#42)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)
Our Line: Boise State -5  (SP+ BSU -1)
Projected Score: TXST: 29 - BSU: 34 (63)
BSU Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
TXST Travel: 1380 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Broncos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (24 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (41 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 3.5 (#33)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Texas State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Texas State at Texas+24.5
Sat 9/12 Texas State vs UTSA-5
Sat 9/19 Texas State vs North Texas+1
Sat 9/26 Texas State vs Incarnate Word-23.5
Sat 10/3 Texas State at San Diego State+3
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/15 Texas State vs Colorado State-15.5
Sat 10/24 Texas State vs Utah State-10
Sat 10/31 Texas State at Boise State+5
Sat 11/7 Texas State at Oregon State-12.5
Sat 11/14 Texas State vs Fresno State-7
Sat 11/21 Texas State vs Washington State-3

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Boise State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Boise State at Oregon+26.5
Sat 9/12 Boise State vs Memphis-4
Sat 9/19 Boise State vs South Dakota-26.5
Sat 9/26 Boise State at Western Michigan-5.5
Sat 10/3 Boise State vs Utah State-12.5
Sat 10/10 Boise State at Fresno State-4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24 Boise State at Washington State-1
Sat 10/31 Boise State vs Texas State-5
Sat 11/7 Boise State at Colorado State-13.5
Sat 11/14 Boise State vs Oregon State-20.5
Fri 11/20 Boise State vs San Diego State-5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#6 (.33)46% (24)36.546% (43)3.13 (34)22347% (25)2514.42 (21)#76 (.18)41% (61)2940% (48)43% (87)3.98 (98)59.51.30.9
BSU#44 (.2)42% (77)29.943% (80)3.11 (39)17941% (83)2453.66 (73)#53 (.12)36% (14)24.141% (50)33% (6)4.14 (111)59.41.51.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense1336.534.246.3%4.421.3234742232515.256%42%46%47%12%.33
BSU Defense1424.122.336.5%4.141.6 - - - - - 52%46%41%33%17%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Defense132932.841.2%3.980.9 - - - - - 52%46%40%43%16%.18
BSU Offense1429.941.341.8%3.661.5224241792454.651%47%43%41%14%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State1329:1022.946%60%6.959.51.30.97.21.9227.4
Boise State1432:5022.146%51%6.959.41.51.662330.6
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense1356% (22)46% (43)42.9222.75.236 (4).28 (7)3.13 (34)67% (102)9% (42)1.15 (10)
BSU Defense1452% (93)41% (50) - - - - .2 (120)2.98 (88)67% (39)11% (28)1.22 (134)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Defense1352% (101)40% (48) - - - - .08 (58)2.67 (25)70% (58)11% (25)1.06 (110)
BSU Offense1451% (51)43% (80)39.3179.44.629 (30).16 (46)3.11 (39)79% (22)8% (33)1 (55)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense1342% (115)47% (25)19.527.8250.8912.921 (86)7 (7).42 (17)1.6 (31)29% (29)38% (9).54 (6)4% (10)2 (71)
BSU Defense1446% (45)33% (6) - - - - - - 14 (22).08 (7)1.7 (116)37% (4)28% (49).22 (33)6% (81)2.1 (87)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Defense1346% (44)43% (87) - - - - - - 9 (123).3 (89)1.6 (97)33% (42)32% (98).28 (64)5% (114)1.9 (30)
BSU Offense1447% (83)41% (83)19.633.7244.97.312.523 (22)14 (88).27 (62)1.6 (43)33% (91)31% (58).28 (74)6% (65)1.8 (124)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.15  #73
Texas State's Offense Rating: 13.85  #47
Texas State's Defense Rating: 21.00  #101
2026 Talent Rating: 616.00  #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #79
Texas State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.0 - 4.0
Texas State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3  #65
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6  #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.15   Boise State: 5.285

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 2.3   Boise State: 3.1




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 5.285  #59
Boise State's Offense Rating: 13.36  #54
Boise State's Defense Rating: 15.89  #62
2026 Talent Rating: 702.00  #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #99
Boise State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.5 - 3.5
Boise State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1  #64
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.1  #55
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1  #60

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17


Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 34
Texas State 29

Projected Total Points: 63
Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Boise State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State000 Overs
Texas State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#73) TXST at (#59) BSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTXSTBSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #73 #59
SP+SP+ #65 #64
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #86 #74
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #99
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffBSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #24 #14
ExplosiveExp #16 #129
PPAPPA #6 #53
PowerPwr #47 #62
SP+SP+ #15 #60
Pts POPPO #21 #111
HavocHav #15 #50
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffBSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #43 #50
Run ExplRExp #10 #134
PPAExp #7 #120
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #34 #88
Stuff RateStuff #36 #61
TackleTak - NR
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffBSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #25 #6
Pass ExplPExl #31 #116
PPAExp #17 #7
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #42 #28
DB HavocDB #10 #81
Boise State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffTXST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #77 #61
ExplosiveExp #47 #110
PPAPPA #44 #76
PowerPwr #54 #101
SP+SP+ #55 #117
Pts POPPO #73 #98
HavocHav #49 #67
Boise State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffTXST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #80 #48
Run ExplRExp #55 #110
PPAExp #46 #58
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #39 #25
Stuff RateStuff #33 #10
TackleTak - NR
Boise State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffTXST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #83 #87
Pass ExplPExl #43 #97
PPAExp #62 #89
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #33 #25
DB HavocDB #65 #114
Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Down to Top G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson25135271%32232179.2
Shaker Reisig (Tr)101953%141127.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brad Jackson174744174.363
Greg Burrell10067136.761
Beau Sparks674112.349
Shaker Reisig (Tr)7100.18
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks8412001014.373
Chris Dawn Jr.651007415.582
Kylen Evans15211114.145
Greg Burrell1312509.623

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Will Windham (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ryan Nolan723022
Ayden Jones521020
Amarion Atwood292023
Cole Nilles273021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donterry Russell186401
Chancellor Owens (Tr)21100
Ryan Nolan723022
Tice Williams51010
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dexter Ricks Jr. (Tr)181004
Amarion Atwood292023
Ryan Nolan723022

BSU's OC Nate Potter (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen17630258%23331897.7
Max Cutforth9516757%1059456.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley1951125105.877
Sire Gaines16181285.046
Juelz Goff (Tr)6927053.917
Harry Stewart III (Tr)219814.715
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cameron Bates18307117.144
Matt Wagner23246110.728
Dylan Riley1514929.975
Quinton Brown5120224.066

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Boen Phelps664150
Jayden Virgin56136120
Jake Ripp433030
JeRico Washington Jr. (Tr)4321010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin56136120
Sterling Lane63310
Boen Phelps664150
David Latu93100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JeRico Washington Jr. (Tr)4321010
Sherrod Smith141006
Jaden Mickey387115