Texas State at Oregon State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Texas State Bobcats at Oregon State Beavers

Saturday, November 7th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Reser Stadium - Corvallis, OR (Pac-12)

Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 4 (#42)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)

TXST 2nd straight Road Game
TXST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -12.5 (SP+ TXST -18)
Projected Score: TXST: 34 - ORST: 22 (56)
TXST Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
TXST Travel: 1712 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Beavers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach JaMarcus Shephard (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (22 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.9 - 8.1 (#76)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
ORST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Texas State at Texas	+24.5
Sat 9/12	Texas State vs UTSA	-5
Sat 9/19	Texas State vs North Texas	+1
Sat 9/26	Texas State vs Incarnate Word	-23.5
Sat 10/3	Texas State at San Diego State	+3
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/15	Texas State vs Colorado State	-15.5
Sat 10/24	Texas State vs Utah State	-10
Sat 10/31	Texas State at Boise State	+5
Sat 11/7	Texas State at Oregon State	-12.5
Sat 11/14	Texas State vs Fresno State	-7
Sat 11/21	Texas State vs Washington State	-3

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Oregon State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Oregon State at Houston	+23.5
Sat 9/12	Oregon State vs Texas Tech	+39.5
Sat 9/19	Oregon State vs Montana	-8.5
Sat 9/26	Oregon State at UTEP	+4
Sat 10/3	Oregon State at Colorado State	+4.5
Sat 10/10	Oregon State vs San Diego State	+13
Sat 10/17	Oregon State vs Washington State	+12
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/30	Oregon State at Fresno State	+13.5
Sat 11/7	Oregon State vs Texas State	+12.5
Sat 11/14	Oregon State at Boise State	+20.5
Sat 11/21	Oregon State vs Utah State	+5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	#6 (.33)	46% (24)	36.5	46% (43)	3.13 (34)	223	47% (25)	251	4.42 (21)	#76 (.18)	41% (61)	29	40% (48)	43% (87)	3.98 (98)	59.5	1.3	0.9
ORST	#124 (.05)	42% (68)	17.6	44% (67)	2.82 (89)	127	42% (68)	225	2.89 (128)	#77 (.18)	38% (25)	29.4	41% (51)	36% (18)	3.41 (46)	49.9	1.7	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	13	36.5	34.2	46.3%	4.42	1.3	23	474	223	251	5.2	56%	42%	46%	47%	12%	.33
ORST Defense	12	29.4	25.3	38.3%	3.41	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	41%	36%	17%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	13	29	32.8	41.2%	3.98	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	40%	43%	16%	.18
ORST Offense	12	17.6	21.7	42.3%	2.89	1.7	20	353	127	225	3.8	46%	52%	44%	42%	16%	.05

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	13	29:10	22.9	46%	60%	6.9	59.5	1.3	0.9	7.2	1.9	2	27.4
Oregon State	12	31:52	20.4	36%	40%	5.9	49.9	1.7	0.8	5.3	1.3	0	28.3

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	13	56% (22)	46% (43)	42.9	222.7	5.2	36 (4)	.28 (7)	3.13 (34)	67% (102)	9% (42)	1.15 (10)
ORST Defense	12	49% (59)	41% (51)	-	-	-	-	.07 (52)	2.6 (17)	68% (43)	10% (57)	0.94 (57)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	13	52% (101)	40% (48)	-	-	-	-	.08 (58)	2.67 (25)	70% (58)	11% (25)	1.06 (110)
ORST Offense	12	46% (98)	44% (67)	33.9	127.3	3.8	15 (60)	.01 (120)	2.82 (89)	77% (30)	9% (61)	0.73 (135)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	13	42% (115)	47% (25)	19.5	27.8	250.8	9	12.9	21 (86)	7 (7)	.42 (17)	1.6 (31)	29% (29)	38% (9)	.54 (6)	4% (10)	2 (71)
ORST Defense	12	49% (81)	36% (18)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (55)	.31 (98)	2 (136)	33% (44)	29% (69)	.44 (126)	7% (15)	2.5 (136)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	13	46% (44)	43% (87)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (123)	.3 (89)	1.6 (97)	33% (42)	32% (98)	.28 (64)	5% (114)	1.9 (30)
ORST Offense	12	52% (36)	42% (68)	21.7	35.9	225.4	6.3	10.4	14 (61)	13 (127)	.11 (123)	1.3 (133)	31% (68)	28% (96)	.05 (131)	7% (110)	1.7 (134)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.15 #73
Texas State's Offense Rating: 13.85 #47
Texas State's Defense Rating: 21.00 #101
2026 Talent Rating: 616.00 #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #79
Texas State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.0 - 4.0
Texas State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #65
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.15 Oregon State: -12.615

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 2.3 Oregon State: -15.9

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -12.615 #118
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 0.53 #130
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 19.86 #89
2026 Talent Rating: 566.00 #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #66
Oregon State's 2026 Expected Record: 2.9 - 8.1
Oregon State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.9 #126
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0 #125
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #96

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 34
Oregon State 22

Projected Total Points: 56

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.7
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Oregon State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon State	0	0	0 Overs
Texas State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#73) TXST at (#118) ORST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	ORST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#73	#118
SP+SP+	#65	#126
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#86	#96
Blue ChipsBC%	#79	#66

Texas State Injury Report

Oregon State Notes(2/2) Reset w/ Shephard in new P12 after Brey fired
(2/2) Special Teams were a disaster in '25, must fix
Oregon State Injury Report

Texas State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	ORST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#24	#25
ExplosiveExp	#16	#133
PPAPPA	#6	#77
PowerPwr	#47	#89
SP+SP+	#15	#96
Pts POPPO	#21	#46
HavocHav	#15	#36

Texas State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	ORST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#51
Run ExplRExp	#10	#57
PPAExp	#7	#52
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#34	#17
Stuff RateStuff	#36	#22
TackleTak	-	NR

Texas State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	ORST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#25	#18
Pass ExplPExl	#31	#136
PPAExp	#17	#98
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#42	#57
DB HavocDB	#10	#15

Oregon State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#68	#61
ExplosiveExp	#135	#110
PPAPPA	#124	#76
PowerPwr	#130	#101
SP+SP+	#125	#117
Pts POPPO	#128	#98
HavocHav	#89	#67

Oregon State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#67	#48
Run ExplRExp	#135	#110
PPAExp	#120	#58
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#89	#25
Stuff RateStuff	#24	#10
TackleTak	-	NR

Oregon State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#68	#87
Pass ExplPExl	#133	#97
PPAExp	#123	#89
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#61	#25
DB HavocDB	#110	#114

Program Comparison
ORST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Poor G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brad Jackson	251	352	71%	3223	21	7	9.2
Shaker Reisig (Tr)	10	19	53%	141	1	2	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brad Jackson	174	744	17	4.3	63
Greg Burrell	100	671	3	6.7	61
Beau Sparks	6	74	1	12.3	49
Shaker Reisig (Tr)	7	1	0	0.1	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Beau Sparks	84	1200	10	14.3	73
Chris Dawn Jr.	65	1007	4	15.5	82
Kylen Evans	15	211	1	14.1	45
Greg Burrell	13	125	0	9.6	23

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Will Windham (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ryan Nolan	72	3	2	2
Ayden Jones	52	1	2	0
Amarion Atwood	29	2	2	3
Cole Nilles	27	3	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donterry Russell	18	6	4	0	1
Chancellor Owens (Tr)	2	1	1	0	0
Ryan Nolan	72	3	0	2	2
Tice Williams	5	1	0	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dexter Ricks Jr. (Tr)	18	1	0	4
Amarion Atwood	29	2	2	3
Ryan Nolan	72	3	2	2

ORST's OC Mitch Dahlen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy	160	276	58%	1802	9	8	6.5
Brady Jones (Tr)	19	40	48%	136	1	3	3.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cornell Hatcher Jr.	52	292	2	5.6	42
AJ Newberry (Tr)	18	57	3	3.2	16
Kourdey Glass	2	7	0	3.5	7
Jake Reichle	3	6	1	2.0	3

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
D.C. Temple	17	143	2	8.4	19
Eddie Freauff	12	139	1	11.6	30
Karson Boschma	4	89	1	22.3	28
Malachi Durant	3	27	1	9.0	11

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Mike MacIntyre (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aiden Sullivan	72	7	1	5	1
Takari Hickle	38	5	2	5	0
Sailasa Vadrawale	31	1	0	1	5
Tyree Blake	29	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Takari Hickle	38	5	2	5	0
Aiden Sullivan	72	7	1	5	1
Jaylen Hill	2	1	1	0	1
Malachi Durant	1	0	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Sailasa Vadrawale	31	1	1	5
Trey Glasper	23	2	0	5
Mason White	28	1	0	2