Fresno State at Texas State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Fresno State Bulldogs at Texas State Bobcats

Saturday, November 14th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium - San Marcos, TX (Pac-12)

Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (26 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#42)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)

FRES 2nd straight Road Game
TXST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -7 (SP+ TXST -0)
Projected Score: FRES: 25 - TXST: 32 (57)
TXST Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
FRES Travel: 1344 miles, 2 hrs behind

Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 4 (#42)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
FRES Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Fresno State at USC	+28
Sat 9/12	Fresno State vs Sacramento State	-5.5
Sat 9/19	Fresno State at San José State	-8.5
Sat 9/26	Fresno State vs Rice	-13
Fri 10/2	Fresno State at Washington State	+6
Sat 10/10	Fresno State vs Boise State	+4.5
Sat 10/17	Fresno State at San Diego State	+7
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/30	Fresno State vs Oregon State	-13.5
Sat 11/7	Fresno State at Utah State	-0.5
Sat 11/14	Fresno State at Texas State	+7
Sat 11/21	Fresno State vs Colorado State	-11.5
Sat 11/28	Fresno State vs TBD	-19

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Texas State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Texas State at Texas	+24.5
Sat 9/12	Texas State vs UTSA	-5
Sat 9/19	Texas State vs North Texas	+1
Sat 9/26	Texas State vs Incarnate Word	-23.5
Sat 10/3	Texas State at San Diego State	+3
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/15	Texas State vs Colorado State	-15.5
Sat 10/24	Texas State vs Utah State	-10
Sat 10/31	Texas State at Boise State	+5
Sat 11/7	Texas State at Oregon State	-12.5
Sat 11/14	Texas State vs Fresno State	-7
Sat 11/21	Texas State vs Washington State	-3

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	#106 (.11)	39% (111)	25.8	38% (120)	2.79 (102)	171	41% (78)	183	3.29 (111)	#41 (.11)	39% (32)	18.8	43% (78)	35% (13)	3.26 (33)	60.6	1.5	2
TXST	#6 (.33)	46% (24)	36.5	46% (43)	3.13 (34)	223	47% (25)	251	4.42 (21)	#76 (.18)	41% (61)	29	40% (48)	43% (87)	3.98 (98)	59.5	1.3	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	13	25.8	26.3	38.6%	3.29	1.5	19	354	171	183	4.6	53%	45%	38%	41%	15%	.11
TXST Defense	13	29	28.3	41.2%	3.98	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	40%	43%	16%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	13	18.8	24.8	38.9%	3.26	2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	35%	17%	.11
TXST Offense	13	36.5	38	46.3%	4.42	1.3	23	474	223	251	5.2	56%	42%	46%	47%	12%	.33

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	13	32:19	18.9	36%	43%	6.6	60.6	1.5	2	5.2	1.8	3	33.6
Texas State	13	29:10	22.9	46%	60%	6.9	59.5	1.3	0.9	7.2	1.9	2	27.4

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	13	53% (40)	38% (120)	37.1	170.7	4.6	22 (49)	.02 (114)	2.79 (102)	73% (57)	10% (87)	1.01 (50)
TXST Defense	13	52% (101)	40% (48)	-	-	-	-	.08 (58)	2.67 (25)	70% (58)	11% (25)	1.06 (110)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	13	50% (62)	43% (78)	-	-	-	-	.09 (61)	3 (92)	74% (91)	10% (70)	0.82 (8)
TXST Offense	13	56% (22)	46% (43)	42.9	222.7	5.2	36 (4)	.28 (7)	3.13 (34)	67% (102)	9% (42)	1.15 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	13	45% (99)	41% (78)	18.4	28.7	183.4	6.4	10	14 (75)	13 (127)	.25 (64)	1.5 (77)	33% (97)	30% (72)	.31 (69)	5% (45)	2 (86)
TXST Defense	13	46% (44)	43% (87)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (123)	.3 (89)	1.6 (97)	33% (42)	32% (98)	.28 (64)	5% (114)	1.9 (30)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	13	49% (76)	35% (13)	-	-	-	-	-	-	20 (12)	.15 (25)	1.6 (94)	33% (43)	27% (33)	.19 (24)	8% (13)	1.8 (18)
TXST Offense	13	42% (115)	47% (25)	19.5	27.8	250.8	9	12.9	21 (86)	7 (7)	.42 (17)	1.6 (31)	29% (29)	38% (9)	.54 (6)	4% (10)	2 (71)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -10.53 #99
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 1.37 #126
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 16.90 #70
2026 Talent Rating: 658.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Fresno State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Fresno State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8 #66
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #37

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -10.53 Texas State: 2.575

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 1.8 Texas State: 2.3

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 2.575 #73
Texas State's Offense Rating: 13.85 #47
Texas State's Defense Rating: 21.00 #101
2026 Talent Rating: 616.00 #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #79
Texas State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.0 - 4.0
Texas State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #65
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Fresno State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 32
Fresno State 25

Projected Total Points: 57

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	0	0	0 Overs
Fresno State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#99) FRES at (#73) TXST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FRES	TXST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#99	#73
SP+SP+	#66	#65
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#81	#86
Blue ChipsBC%	#99	#79

Fresno State Injury Report

Texas State Injury Report

Fresno State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	TXST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#111	#61
ExplosiveExp	#54	#110
PPAPPA	#106	#76
PowerPwr	#126	#101
SP+SP+	#100	#117
Pts POPPO	#111	#98
HavocHav	#64	#67

Fresno State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#120	#48
Run ExplRExp	#50	#110
PPAExp	#114	#58
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#102	#25
Stuff RateStuff	#90	#10
TackleTak	-	NR

Fresno State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#78	#87
Pass ExplPExl	#77	#97
PPAExp	#64	#89
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#87	#25
DB HavocDB	#45	#114

Texas State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	FRES Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#24	#32
ExplosiveExp	#16	#25
PPAPPA	#6	#41
PowerPwr	#47	#70
SP+SP+	#15	#37
Pts POPPO	#21	#33
HavocHav	#15	#30

Texas State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#78
Run ExplRExp	#10	#8
PPAExp	#7	#61
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#34	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#36	#50
TackleTak	-	NR

Texas State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#25	#13
Pass ExplPExl	#31	#94
PPAExp	#17	#25
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#42	#70
DB HavocDB	#10	#13

Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Khristian Martin (Tr)	11	17	65%	105	1	0	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rayshon Luke	110	699	6	6.4	69
Bryson Donelson	142	583	5	4.1	57
Brandon Ramirez	60	271	3	4.5	19
Josiah Freeman	3	17	0	5.7	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josiah Freeman	52	642	6	12.3	51
Ezekiel Avit	28	255	0	9.1	41
Rayshon Luke	36	228	2	6.3	23
Jahlil McClain	13	169	1	13.0	43

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Simeon Harris	53	7	1	0	5
Camryn Bracha	52	3	0	0	4
Finn Claypool	41	11	7	4	1
Tytus Khajavi	37	3	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Finn Claypool	41	11	7	4	1
Jahzon Jacks	32	7	4	3	0
Deijon Laffitte	27	5	3	0	3
Simeon Harris	53	7	1	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Simeon Harris	53	7	1	5
Ryan Wilson	25	2	1	4
Camryn Bracha	52	3	0	4

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brad Jackson	251	352	71%	3223	21	7	9.2
Shaker Reisig (Tr)	10	19	53%	141	1	2	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brad Jackson	174	744	17	4.3	63
Greg Burrell	100	671	3	6.7	61
Beau Sparks	6	74	1	12.3	49
Shaker Reisig (Tr)	7	1	0	0.1	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Beau Sparks	84	1200	10	14.3	73
Chris Dawn Jr.	65	1007	4	15.5	82
Kylen Evans	15	211	1	14.1	45
Greg Burrell	13	125	0	9.6	23

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Will Windham (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ryan Nolan	72	3	2	2
Ayden Jones	52	1	2	0
Amarion Atwood	29	2	2	3
Cole Nilles	27	3	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donterry Russell	18	6	4	0	1
Chancellor Owens (Tr)	2	1	1	0	0
Ryan Nolan	72	3	0	2	2
Tice Williams	5	1	0	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dexter Ricks Jr. (Tr)	18	1	0	4
Amarion Atwood	29	2	2	3
Ryan Nolan	72	3	2	2