UTSA at Texas State - 2026 Matchup Preview
UTSA logo   UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State Bobcats  Texas State logo
Saturday, September 12th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium - San Marcos, TX

 
Roadrunners (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (53 - 26)
Avg Score : 36 - 29 (22 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#80)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Texas State -5  (SP+ UTSA -1.5)
Projected Score: UTSA: 29 - TXST: 34 (63)
TXST Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
UTSA Travel: 47 miles
Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 4 (#42)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)
 
UTSA's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/12 UTSA at Texas State+5
Sat 9/19 UTSA at Texas+26.5
Sat 9/26 UTSA vs Colorado State-13.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UTSA's Schedule
Texas State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Texas State at Texas+24.5
Sat 9/12 Texas State vs UTSA-5
Sat 9/19 Texas State vs North Texas+1
Sat 9/26 Texas State vs Incarnate Word-23.5
Sat 10/3 Texas State at San Diego State+3
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/15 Texas State vs Colorado State-15.5
Sat 10/24 Texas State vs Utah State-10
Sat 10/31 Texas State at Boise State+5
Sat 11/7 Texas State at Oregon State-12.5
Sat 11/14 Texas State vs Fresno State-7
Sat 11/21 Texas State vs Washington State-3

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTSA#31 (.23)45% (35)35.545% (47)2.81 (94)17447% (21)2474.23 (27)#82 (.18)40% (46)28.840% (44)40% (49)4.2 (115)68.70.91.4
TXST#6 (.33)46% (24)36.546% (43)3.13 (34)22347% (25)2514.42 (21)#76 (.18)41% (61)2940% (48)43% (87)3.98 (98)59.51.30.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTSA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTSA Offense1335.521.745.5%4.230.9224211742475.146%52%45%47%16%.23
TXST Defense132928.341.2%3.980.9 - - - - - 52%46%40%43%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTSA Defense1328.833.739.6%4.21.4 - - - - - 50%49%40%40%19%.18
TXST Offense1336.53846.3%4.421.3234742232515.256%42%46%47%12%.33

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UTSA1331:5121.840%46%7.368.70.91.45.91.8231.8
Texas State1329:1022.946%60%6.959.51.30.97.21.9227.4
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTSA Offense1346% (100)45% (47)34.2174.15.121 (49).19 (35)2.81 (94)73% (61)10% (102)1.17 (6)
TXST Defense1352% (101)40% (48) - - - - .08 (58)2.67 (25)70% (58)11% (25)1.06 (110)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTSA Defense1350% (65)40% (44) - - - - .12 (85)2.86 (62)64% (20)11% (20)0.97 (73)
TXST Offense1356% (22)46% (43)42.9222.75.236 (4).28 (7)3.13 (34)67% (102)9% (42)1.15 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTSA Offense1352% (37)47% (21)22.934.4247.27.210.834 (33)7 (34).33 (43)1.5 (96)30% (47)36% (21).45 (21)6% (55)2.2 (15)
TXST Defense1346% (44)43% (87) - - - - - - 9 (123).3 (89)1.6 (97)33% (42)32% (98).28 (64)5% (114)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTSA Defense1349% (77)40% (49) - - - - - - 11 (75).29 (85)1.8 (131)35% (18)28% (47).3 (69)7% (20)2.2 (123)
TXST Offense1342% (115)47% (25)19.527.8250.8912.921 (86)7 (7).42 (17)1.6 (31)29% (29)38% (9).54 (6)4% (10)2 (71)

UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: -8.05  #88
UTSA's Offense Rating: 9.34  #82
UTSA's Defense Rating: 22.39  #109
2026 Talent Rating: 524.00  #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #59
UTSA's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
UTSA's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7  #62
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3  #27
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0  #91

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 542.43
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Power Ratings Matchup
UTSA: -8.05   Texas State: 2.575

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTSA: 3.7   Texas State: 2.3




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 2.575  #73
Texas State's Offense Rating: 13.85  #47
Texas State's Defense Rating: 21.00  #101
2026 Talent Rating: 616.00  #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #79
Texas State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.0 - 4.0
Texas State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3  #65
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6  #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17


UTSA Scoring
Offense: 35.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.7

UTSA's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 34
UTSA 29

Projected Total Points: 63
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06UTSA36Texas State43UTSA -4.5Texas State64.5Over
202409/07Texas State49UTSA10Texas State -2.5Texas State58.5Over
202309/09UTSA20Texas State13UT San Antonio -13.5Texas State66.5Under
202009/12Texas State48UTSA51Texas State -6.0UTSA56.5Over
201809/22UTSA25Texas State21UT San Antonio -7Texas State49.0Under
201709/23Texas State14UTSA44UT San Antonio -13.5UTSA45.0Over
201211/24UTSA38Texas State31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State244 Overs
UTSA522 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 31 - 51 - 40 - 1
Road Teams3 - 45 - 11 - 04 - 1

(#88) UTSA at (#73) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUTSATXST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #88 #73
SP+SP+ #62 #65
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #110 #86
Blue ChipsBC% #59 #79
UTSA on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
UTSA OffTXST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #35 #61
ExplosiveExp #23 #110
PPAPPA #31 #76
PowerPwr #82 #101
SP+SP+ #27 #117
Pts POPPO #27 #98
HavocHav #80 #67
UTSA Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
UTSA OffTXST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #47 #48
Run ExplRExp #6 #110
PPAExp #35 #58
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #94 #25
Stuff RateStuff #105 #10
TackleTak - NR
UTSA Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
UTSA OffTXST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #21 #87
Pass ExplPExl #96 #97
PPAExp #43 #89
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #102 #25
DB HavocDB #55 #114
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffUTSA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #24 #46
ExplosiveExp #16 #126
PPAPPA #6 #82
PowerPwr #47 #109
SP+SP+ #15 #91
Pts POPPO #21 #115
HavocHav #15 #18
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffUTSA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #43 #44
Run ExplRExp #10 #73
PPAExp #7 #85
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #34 #62
Stuff RateStuff #36 #75
TackleTak - NR
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffUTSA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #25 #49
Pass ExplPExl #31 #131
PPAExp #17 #85
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #42 #20
DB HavocDB #10 #20
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

UTSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Texas State beat UTSA last year (43-36)
Texas State beat UTSA in 2024 (49-10)
UTSA beat Texas State in 2023 (20-13)

  
UTSA's OC Rick Bowie (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Owen McCown27640968%29903077.3
Brandon Tennison203459%199205.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Will Henderson III12586666.959
A'Marion Peterson4917733.614
Brandon High239814.322
Bryson Donnell208414.228
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
AJ Wilson30523417.477
David Amador4544349.845
DJ Allen2018939.543
Will Henderson III1913226.940

View UTSA's Full Roster

UTSA's DC Jess Loepp (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Tucker Jr.353040
Owen Pewee284061
Marcellus Wilkerson273111
Elijah Baldwin (Tr)236444
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Baldwin (Tr)236444
James Walley Jr.196202
Timothy Huff Jr.31100
Bryce Grays223100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Baldwin (Tr)236444
Jakevian Rodgers232004
Cam Upshaw Jr.131002

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson25135271%32232179.2
Shaker Reisig (Tr)101953%141127.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brad Jackson174744174.363
Greg Burrell10067136.761
Beau Sparks674112.349
Shaker Reisig (Tr)7100.18
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks8412001014.373
Chris Dawn Jr.651007415.582
Kylen Evans15211114.145
Greg Burrell1312509.623

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Will Windham (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ryan Nolan723022
Ayden Jones521020
Amarion Atwood292023
Cole Nilles273021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donterry Russell186401
Chancellor Owens (Tr)21100
Ryan Nolan723022
Tice Williams51010
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dexter Ricks Jr. (Tr)181004
Amarion Atwood292023
Ryan Nolan723022