North Texas at Texas State - 2026 Matchup Preview
North Texas logo   North Texas Mean Green at Texas State Bobcats  Texas State logo
Saturday, September 19th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium - San Marcos, TX

 
Mean Green (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Neal Brown (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (44 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#80)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TXST 2nd straight Home Game
UNT coming off BYE
Our Line: North Texas -1  (SP+ UNT -11.5)
Projected Score: UNT: 36 - TXST: 35 (70)
UNT Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
UNT Travel: 233 miles
Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 4 (#42)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)
 
North Texas's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 North Texas at Indiana+27.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19 North Texas at Texas State-1

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Texas State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Texas State at Texas+24.5
Sat 9/12 Texas State vs UTSA-5
Sat 9/19 Texas State vs North Texas+1
Sat 9/26 Texas State vs Incarnate Word-23.5
Sat 10/3 Texas State at San Diego State+3
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/15 Texas State vs Colorado State-15.5
Sat 10/24 Texas State vs Utah State-10
Sat 10/31 Texas State at Boise State+5
Sat 11/7 Texas State at Oregon State-12.5
Sat 11/14 Texas State vs Fresno State-7
Sat 11/21 Texas State vs Washington State-3

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#2 (.36)51% (3)45.153% (2)3.58 (1)19451% (8)3174.98 (4)#80 (.18)44% (94)26.548% (125)37% (26)4.03 (104)45.51.42
TXST#6 (.33)46% (24)36.546% (43)3.13 (34)22347% (25)2514.42 (21)#76 (.18)41% (61)2940% (48)43% (87)3.98 (98)59.51.30.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Offense1445.143.751.5%4.981.4265111943175.348%51%53%51%12%.36
TXST Defense132928.341.2%3.980.9 - - - - - 52%46%40%43%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Defense1426.528.343.5%4.032 - - - - - 60%38%48%37%14%.18
TXST Offense1336.53846.3%4.421.3234742232515.256%42%46%47%12%.33

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Texas1428:2225.546%69%5.645.51.425.31.7033.8
Texas State1329:1022.946%60%6.959.51.30.97.21.9227.4
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Offense1448% (84)53% (2)36.6194.15.349 (1).33 (3)3.58 (1)73% (58)7% (8)1.1 (17)
TXST Defense1352% (101)40% (48) - - - - .08 (58)2.67 (25)70% (58)11% (25)1.06 (110)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Defense1460% (134)48% (125) - - - - .18 (111)3.19 (118)77% (111)9% (80)1.01 (92)
TXST Offense1356% (22)46% (43)42.9222.75.236 (4).28 (7)3.13 (34)67% (102)9% (42)1.15 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Offense1451% (50)51% (8)23.234.1317.39.313.735 (8)9 (20).43 (12)1.6 (63)26% (9)39% (6).44 (22)5% (25)2 (68)
TXST Defense1346% (44)43% (87) - - - - - - 9 (123).3 (89)1.6 (97)33% (42)32% (98).28 (64)5% (114)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Defense1438% (2)37% (26) - - - - - - 15 (31).21 (55)1.7 (113)29% (116)28% (58).27 (62)4% (126)2 (58)
TXST Offense1342% (115)47% (25)19.527.8250.8912.921 (86)7 (7).42 (17)1.6 (31)29% (29)38% (9).54 (6)4% (10)2 (71)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -6.16  #85
North Texas's Offense Rating: 11.33  #70
North Texas's Defense Rating: 22.49  #110
2026 Talent Rating: 630.00  #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #79
North Texas's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
North Texas's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8  #22
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.1  #1
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #78

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 542.43
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -6.16   Texas State: 2.575

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: 13.8   Texas State: 2.3




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 2.575  #73
Texas State's Offense Rating: 13.85  #47
Texas State's Defense Rating: 21.00  #101
2026 Talent Rating: 616.00  #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #79
Texas State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.0 - 4.0
Texas State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3  #65
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6  #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17


North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 43.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.3

North Texas's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 36
Texas State 35

Projected Total Points: 70
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202401/03Texas State30North Texas28Texas State -15.5North Texas67.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State100 Overs
North Texas011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#85) UNT at (#73) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNTTXST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #85 #73
SP+SP+ #22 #65
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #85 #86
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #79
North Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffTXST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #3 #61
ExplosiveExp #32 #110
PPAPPA #2 #76
PowerPwr #70 #101
SP+SP+ #1 #117
Pts POPPO #4 #98
HavocHav #9 #67
North Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffTXST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #2 #48
Run ExplRExp #17 #110
PPAExp #3 #58
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #1 #25
Stuff RateStuff #7 #10
TackleTak - NR
North Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffTXST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #8 #87
Pass ExplPExl #63 #97
PPAExp #12 #89
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #8 #25
DB HavocDB #25 #114
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffUNT Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #24 #94
ExplosiveExp #16 #52
PPAPPA #6 #80
PowerPwr #47 #110
SP+SP+ #15 #78
Pts POPPO #21 #104
HavocHav #15 #108
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffUNT Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #43 #125
Run ExplRExp #10 #92
PPAExp #7 #111
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #34 #118
Stuff RateStuff #36 #125
TackleTak - NR
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffUNT Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #25 #26
Pass ExplPExl #31 #113
PPAExp #17 #55
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #42 #80
DB HavocDB #10 #126
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

UNT 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Texas State beat North Texas in 2024 (30-28)

  
UNT's OC Neal Brown (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)20031564%21511086.8
Chaston Ditta (Tr)122450%215309.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Osho (Tr)11968685.879
Jahiem White (Tr)2413335.532
Jayden Becks218724.116
Tayven Jackson (Tr)548531.625
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
James Tyre (Tr)688321112.242
Grayson O'Bara (Tr)44590213.471
Corri Milliner (Tr)24341314.249
Dalton Carnes780011.421

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Powledge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aaron Alexander (Tr)923100
David Onuoha (Tr)425320
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)4110531
Davion Rhodes (Tr)346011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)4110531
David Onuoha (Tr)425320
Zhaiylen Scott142230
Brayden Knox192100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan Allen Jr.151004
Caden Jenkins (Tr)101003
Keshawn Davila (Tr)20002

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson25135271%32232179.2
Shaker Reisig (Tr)101953%141127.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brad Jackson174744174.363
Greg Burrell10067136.761
Beau Sparks674112.349
Shaker Reisig (Tr)7100.18
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks8412001014.373
Chris Dawn Jr.651007415.582
Kylen Evans15211114.145
Greg Burrell1312509.623

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Will Windham (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ryan Nolan723022
Ayden Jones521020
Amarion Atwood292023
Cole Nilles273021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donterry Russell186401
Chancellor Owens (Tr)21100
Ryan Nolan723022
Tice Williams51010
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dexter Ricks Jr. (Tr)181004
Amarion Atwood292023
Ryan Nolan723022