Western Michigan at Massachusetts - 2025 Matchup Preview

Western Michigan Broncos at Massachusetts Minutemen

Saturday, October 4th 2025 (2:30 PM EDT)
Western Michigan -12.5 (46.5) (-470) Open: -10.5
Western Michigan 21 - Massachusetts: 3 (Mid-American)

Broncos (10 - 4) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Lance Taylor (10 - 14)
Avg Score : 25 - 17 (18 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)

WMU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Western Michigan -22 (SP+ WMU -35)
Projected Score: WMU: 34 - UMASS: 12 (46)
WMU Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
WMU Travel: 667 miles

Minutemen (0 - 12) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Joe Harasymiak (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (13 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0 - 12 (#136)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)

Matchup
Schedules
WMU Players
UMASS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Michigan's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Western Michigan at Michigan State	+18.5	49.5	L 6 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Western Michigan vs North Texas	+12.0	56.0	L 30 - 33	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Western Michigan at Illinois	+27.5	50.5	L 0 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/20	Western Michigan vs Toledo	+13.5	48.5	W 14 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Western Michigan vs Rhode Island	-7.5	45.5	W 47 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Western Michigan at Massachusetts	-12.5	46.5	W 21 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Western Michigan vs Ball State	-9.5	43.5	W 42 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Western Michigan at Miami (OH)	+2.5	40.5	L 17 - 26	O	N
Sat 11/1	Western Michigan vs Central Michigan	-6.0	43.5	W 24 - 21	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/11	Western Michigan vs Ohio	-1.5	46.5	W 17 - 13	U	Y
Tue 11/18	Western Michigan at Northern Illinois	-7.0	39.5	W 35 - 19	O	Y
Tue 11/25	Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan	-10.0	49.0	W 31 - 21	O	N
Sat 12/6	Western Michigan vs Miami (OH)	-2.5	44.5	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Fri 12/19	Western Michigan vs Kennesaw State	-3.0	47.0	W 41 - 6	U	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Michigan's Schedule

Massachusetts's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Massachusetts vs Temple	+3.0	51.5	L 10 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/6	Massachusetts vs Bryant	-14.5	52.0	L 26 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/13	Massachusetts at Iowa	+35.5	44.5	L 7 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Massachusetts at Missouri	+44.5	57.5	L 6 - 42	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Massachusetts vs Western Michigan	+12.5	46.5	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/11	Massachusetts at Kent State	+1.5	49.5	L 6 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/18	Massachusetts vs Buffalo	+16.5	47.5	L 21 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Massachusetts at Central Michigan	+16.5	46.5	L 13 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4	Massachusetts at Akron	+12.5	51.5	L 10 - 44	O	N
Wed 11/12	Massachusetts vs Northern Illinois	+8.5	43.5	L 3 - 45	O	N
Tue 11/18	Massachusetts at Ohio	+34.5	53.5	L 14 - 42	O	Y
Tue 11/25	Massachusetts vs Bowling Green	+14.0	44.5	L 14 - 45	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WMU	#43 (.24)	45% (33)	24.9	45% (59)	3.05 (62)	184	46% (27)	187	4.11 (49)	#122 (.29)	49% (128)	17.4	48% (115)	51% (132)	4.38 (119)	39.2	1	1.6
UMASS	#69 (.19)	41% (94)	11.1	43% (78)	3.1 (50)	164	38% (110)	182	3.73 (89)	#114 (.26)	46% (116)	38.6	51% (128)	40% (71)	4.66 (129)	63.2	0.8	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UMASS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WMU Offense	13	24.9	18.3	45.2%	4.11	1	19	371	184	187	5	55%	45%	45%	46%	15%	.24
UMASS Defense	12	38.6	34.7	46.3%	4.66	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	51%	40%	14%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WMU Defense	13	17.4	21.7	49.1%	4.38	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	48%	51%	18%	.29
UMASS Offense	12	11.1	12.8	40.8%	3.73	0.8	20	346	164	182	4.1	56%	44%	43%	38%	17%	.19

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Michigan	13	29:58	19.5	35%	59%	4.1	39.2	1	1.6	4.2	1.5	1	31.3
Massachusetts	12	32:19	19.7	38%	58%	7.3	63.2	0.8	0.8	4.1	1.3	1	25.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WMU Offense	13	55% (35)	45% (59)	36.8	184.2	5	28 (25)	.18 (43)	3.05 (62)	75% (53)	10% (64)	1.07 (33)
UMASS Defense	12	60% (133)	51% (128)	-	-	-	-	.25 (125)	3.51 (131)	87% (131)	8% (113)	0.95 (52)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WMU Defense	13	56% (123)	48% (115)	-	-	-	-	.19 (105)	3.18 (96)	76% (84)	10% (66)	1.01 (81)
UMASS Offense	12	56% (27)	43% (78)	40.2	164	4.1	18 (78)	.16 (53)	3.1 (50)	74% (62)	11% (95)	0.96 (68)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WMU Offense	13	45% (100)	46% (27)	16.3	24.9	187	7.5	11.5	18 (68)	9 (48)	.32 (40)	1.5 (98)	28% (16)	31% (71)	.27 (91)	6% (59)	1.9 (108)
UMASS Defense	12	39% (2)	40% (71)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.29 (100)	1.7 (112)	28% (118)	28% (29)	.27 (51)	6% (72)	2.1 (89)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WMU Defense	13	44% (12)	51% (132)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.44 (127)	1.5 (31)	27% (125)	33% (103)	.33 (81)	8% (19)	1.9 (39)
UMASS Offense	12	44% (109)	38% (110)	15.6	27.3	181.8	6.7	11.7	14 (108)	6 (10)	.23 (81)	1.7 (22)	33% (87)	32% (57)	.34 (69)	6% (80)	2 (98)

Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: -12.46 #110
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: 3.31 #125
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: 15.77 #86
2025 Talent Rating: 558.00 #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Western Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 4.5
Western Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #78
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #105
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #42

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -12.46 Massachusetts: -28.965

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -1.4 Massachusetts: -36.6

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -28.965 #137
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: -0.22 #136
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 26.11 #134
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Massachusetts's 2025 Expected Record: 0.0 - 12.0
Massachusetts's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -36.6 #136
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 7.8 #136
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 42.8 #136

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.3
Defense: 17.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

Western Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 1 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Western Michigan 34
Massachusetts 12

Projected Total Points: 46

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 12.8
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

Massachusetts's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 12
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Massachusetts	3	Western Michigan	21	Western Michigan -12.5	Western Michigan	46.5	Under
2013	10/26	Massachusetts	30	Western Michigan	31	UMass -2	Western Michigan	0
2012	10/06	Western Michigan	52	Massachusetts	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Massachusetts	0	0	0 Overs
Western Michigan	3	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 1	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0

(#110) WMU at (#137) UMASS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WMU	UMASS
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#110	#137
SP+SP+	#78	#136
Perf GradeGrade	#53	#136
OffenseOff	#54	#136
DefenseDef	#46	#130
Spec TeamsST	#37	#123
TalentTal	#106	#109
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#101

Western Michigan Notes(11/29) Beat EMU, will play Miami OH in MAC Championship
(11/20) Control MAC w/ W over N Ill. 361 rush, 32 pass!
(11/13) Great W over Ohio, leaders of the MAC now
(11/13) Def shut down Navarro, Run Off 210+. 5.0 ypc
(10/31) QB Lowry a weapon, JAG arm, only real rush threat
(10/31) Def meh vs Mia OH, all 400+ but good on 3rd D's
(10/22) DL is one of best in CFB, best in G5 statistically
(10/8) Def has improved a lot, red zone defense especially
(9/20) Off is terrible, esp Run Off. QB Lowry meh
(9/20) Huge win vs Toledo. Def held 5-18 3rd down, 3 TO
(8/30) QB B Jones starter, B Lowry is QB2, both bad
(8/30) Run game alarming bad vs Mich St, 1.2 ypc
Western Michigan Injury Report

Massachusetts Notes(11/4) Killed by Akron, 169 total yds, 3 TOs. Worst FBS
(10/31) Worst program in CFB, but fair everyone is hurt
(10/31) UMass disgrace to MAC, should drop to FCS
(10/30) Only competitive in 2 games & 1 was L to Bryant
(10/24) 13 starters from Week 1 are out now.
(10/15) Have not scored 7+ points in any game over a month
(10/12) Blown out by Kent? UMass is worst team in CFB
(10/12) There is nothing here to like or fear. Mid FCS at best
(9/25) DBs are extremely banged up, moving CB to S
(9/25) 17 pts vs 2 FBS teams, 0 in the 2nd half
(9/25) QB1 B Rose is out, Hairston & Jordan playing
(8/30) Killed by Temple? Barely 300 yds, gave up 450+
Massachusetts Injury Report

Western Michigan on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat	WMU Off	UMASS Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#54	#130
SuccessSuc	#33	#116
ExplosiveExp	#74	#41
PPAPPA	#43	#114
PowerPwr	#125	#134
SP+SP+	#105	#136
Pts POPPO	#49	#129
HavocHav	#55	#106

Western Michigan Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat	WMU Off	UMASS Def
Run GameRun	#42	#117
Run SuccessRSuc	#59	#128
Run ExplRExp	#33	#52
PPAExp	#43	#125
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	#62	#131
Stuff RateStuff	#67	#131
TackleTak	-	#78

Western Michigan Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat	WMU Off	UMASS Def
Pass GamePass	#65	#135
Pass SuccessPSuc	#27	#71
Pass ExplPExl	#98	#112
PPAExp	#40	#100
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#113	#60
F7 HavocF7	#64	#113
DB HavocDB	#59	#72

Massachusetts on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	WMU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#136	#46
SuccessSuc	#94	#128
ExplosiveExp	#72	#45
PPAPPA	#69	#122
PowerPwr	#136	#86
SP+SP+	#136	#42
Pts POPPO	#89	#119
HavocHav	#95	#44

Massachusetts Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	WMU Def
Run GameRun	#134	#88
Run SuccessRSuc	#78	#115
Run ExplRExp	#68	#81
PPAExp	#53	#105
Run BlockR Blk	#109	-
OL YdsOLY	#50	#96
Stuff RateStuff	#38	#99
TackleTak	-	#93

Massachusetts Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	WMU Def
Pass GamePass	#112	#51
Pass SuccessPSuc	#110	#132
Pass ExplPExl	#22	#31
PPAExp	#81	#127
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#134	#12
F7 HavocF7	#95	#66
DB HavocDB	#80	#19

Program Comparison
UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

WMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Western Michigan 12.5 (46.5)
Western Michigan won at Massachusetts this year (21-3)

Previous Matchups
Western Michigan beat Massachusetts last year (21-3)

WMU's OC Walt Bell (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Broc Lowry	166	262	63%	1803	9	3	6.9
Brady Jones	19	40	48%	136	1	3	3.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Buckley	179	1003	9	5.6	67
Broc Lowry	203	963	14	4.7	37
Devin Miles	99	425	3	4.3	32
Ofa Mataele	57	252	3	4.4	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tailique Williams (Tr)	35	478	2	13.7	71
Baylin Brooks (Tr)	27	372	0	13.8	42
Aveion Chenault	23	277	2	12.0	45
Blake Bosma	27	251	1	9.3	24

View Western Michigan's Full Roster

WMU's DC Chris O'Leary (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
James Camden	85	5	4	1	0
Sefa Saipaia Jr.	77	6	2	5	0
Tate Hallock	67	2	1	4	2
Jarvarius Sims (Tr)	61	2	1	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nadame Tucker (Tr)	55	22	15	16	1
Rodney McGraw	42	9	7	10	1
James Camden	85	5	4	1	0
Tyson Lee	15	3	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joshua Franklin	53	6	2	1	10
Aaron Wofford	33	1	0	0	8
Jarvarius Sims (Tr)	61	2	1	0	4

UMASS's OC Mike Bajakian (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Hairston	107	216	50%	957	4	4	4.4
Grant Jordan (Tr)	63	110	57%	595	3	2	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brandon Hood (Tr)	98	368	2	3.8	90
Rocko Griffin (Tr)	53	245	2	4.6	43
Elijah Faulkner	40	114	0	2.9	14
Juwuan Price	26	101	0	3.9	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacquon Gibson	63	616	0	9.8	50
Donnie Gray (Tr)	27	260	0	9.6	41
Max Dowling (Tr)	20	199	3	10.0	77
Jake McConnachie (Tr)	16	144	0	9.0	21

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Jared Keyte (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Martin	97	3	0	0	2
Derrieon Craig	78	1	1	1	2
Zeraun Daniel (Tr)	75	3	0	0	2
Timmy Hinspeter (Tr)	69	4	2	2	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marques White	43	11	5	3	1
David Onuoha (Tr)	42	5	3	2	0
Timmy Hinspeter (Tr)	69	4	2	2	2
Tim Grant-Randall	27	3	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Martin	97	3	0	0	2
Brennen Bailey	18	1	0	0	2
Derrieon Craig	78	1	1	1	2