North Texas at Western Michigan - 2025 Matchup Preview
North Texas logo North Texas Mean Green at Western Michigan BroncosWestern Michigan logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
North Texas -12.0 (56.0) (-370)  Open: -10.0 | 60.0
North Texas 33 - Western Michigan: 30

 
Mean Green (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (44 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.6 - 2.4 (#9)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
Our Line: North Texas -11.5  (SP+ UNT -20)
Projected Score: UNT: 33 - WMU: 21 (54)
UNT Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
UNT Travel: 889 miles, 1 hrs behind
Broncos (10 - 4) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Lance Taylor (10 - 14)
Avg Score : 25 - 17 (29 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
 
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 North Texas vs Lamar-27.563.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 North Texas at Western Michigan-12.056.0W 33 - 30ON
Sat 9/13 North Texas vs Washington State-6.557.5W 59 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 North Texas at Army-2.550.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 9/27 North Texas vs South Alabama-13.563.5W 36 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/10 North Texas vs South Florida-2.568.5L 36 - 63ON
Sat 10/18 North Texas vs UTSA-4.064.5W 55 - 17OY
Fri 10/24 North Texas at Charlotte-25.560.5W 54 - 20OY
Sat 11/1 North Texas vs Navy-6.568.5W 31 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 North Texas at UAB-17.569.5W 53 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 North Texas at Rice-18.557.0W 56 - 24OY
Fri 11/28 North Texas vs Temple-20.065.5W 52 - 25OY
Fri 12/5 North Texas at Tulane-1.566.5L 21 - 34UN
Sat 12/27 North Texas vs San Diego State-7.555.5W 49 - 47ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Western Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Western Michigan at Michigan State+18.549.5L 6 - 23UY
Sat 9/6 Western Michigan vs North Texas+12.056.0L 30 - 33OY
Sat 9/13 Western Michigan at Illinois+27.550.5L 0 - 38UN
Sat 9/20 Western Michigan vs Toledo+13.548.5W 14 - 13UY
Sat 9/27 Western Michigan vs Rhode Island-7.545.5W 47 - 14OY
Sat 10/4 Western Michigan at Massachusetts-12.546.5W 21 - 3UY
Sat 10/11 Western Michigan vs Ball State-9.543.5W 42 - 0UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Western Michigan at Miami (OH)+2.540.5L 17 - 26ON
Sat 11/1 Western Michigan vs Central Michigan-6.043.5W 24 - 21ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/11 Western Michigan vs Ohio-1.546.5W 17 - 13UY
Tue 11/18 Western Michigan at Northern Illinois-7.039.5W 35 - 19OY
Tue 11/25 Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan-10.049.0W 31 - 21ON
Sat 12/6 Western Michigan vs Miami (OH)-2.544.5W 23 - 13UY
Fri 12/19 Western Michigan vs Kennesaw State-3.047.0W 41 - 6UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Michigan's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#3 (.36)51% (4)45.153% (3)3.58 (2)16851% (8)2994.98 (3)#78 (.18)44% (93)26.548% (125)37% (29)3.93 (97)39.11.21.8
WMU#102 (.12)43% (56)24.947% (32)3.18 (28)20537% (116)1393.35 (103)#16 (.06)37% (18)17.438% (24)37% (23)2.83 (13)40.11.11.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)40% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)47% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1
WMU#43 (.24)45% (33)45% (59)3.05 (62)18446% (27)1874.11 (49)#122 (.29)49% (128)48% (115)51% (132)4.38 (119)39.211.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Offense1445.143.751.2%4.981.2244671682995.147%51%53%51%12%.36
WMU Defense1417.415.736.9%2.831.7 - - - - - 49%49%38%37%17%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Defense1426.528.343.6%3.931.8 - - - - - 60%38%48%37%14%.18
WMU Offense1424.92943.4%3.351.1193432051394.665%33%47%37%12%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Texas1426:0323.546%69%4.939.11.21.851.6033.6
Western Michigan1432:3418.940%44%4.640.11.11.75.93.1232
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Offense1447% (87)53% (3)33.1167.95.145 (1).33 (4)3.58 (2)73% (67)7% (12)1.11 (13)
WMU Defense1449% (54)38% (24) - - - - .06 (47)2.75 (47)73% (84)11% (19)1.02 (97)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Defense1460% (134)48% (125) - - - - .18 (110)3.23 (120)78% (114)9% (78)0.98 (82)
WMU Offense1465% (5)47% (32)44.2204.54.631 (49).14 (56)3.18 (28)76% (38)9% (60)0.9 (95)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Offense1451% (47)51% (8)21.330.6299.49.814.132 (8)7 (20).43 (17)1.6 (63)26% (12)39% (8).44 (21)5% (25)2 (73)
WMU Defense1449% (77)37% (23) - - - - - - 12 (55).1 (13)1.5 (29)34% (24)28% (53).12 (11)6% (68)1.7 (6)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Defense1438% (2)37% (29) - - - - - - 13 (31).21 (56)1.7 (113)29% (116)29% (62).27 (62)4% (127)1.9 (30)
WMU Offense1433% (132)37% (116)13.221.8138.56.410.510 (114)6 (34).1 (125)1.4 (119)30% (45)24% (128).15 (120)3% (7)1.9 (101)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: 1.20  #65
North Texas's Offense Rating: 16.98  #28
North Texas's Defense Rating: 15.78  #115
2025 Talent Rating: 618.00  #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 11.6 - 2.4
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5  #15
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2  #1
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #67

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: 1.20   Western Michigan: -2.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: 17.5   Western Michigan: -2.7




Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: -2.32  #94
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: 0.53  #124
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: 7.47  #65
2025 Talent Rating: 558.00  #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Western Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 4.5
Western Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.7  #81
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.4  #110
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.6  #46

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 43.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.3

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 33
Western Michigan 21


Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
North Texas 24
Western Michigan 23

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
North Texas 30
Western Michigan 27

Total Points: 57
Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 17.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

Western Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Western Michigan30North Texas33North Texas -12.0Western Michigan56.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Western Michigan011 Overs
North Texas100 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#65) UNT at (#94) WMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNTWMU
Power RatePwr #65 #94
SP+SP+ #15 #81
Perf GradeGrade #8 #67
OffenseOff #3 #71
DefenseDef #27 #63
Spec TeamsST #54 #47
TalentTal #91 #106
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #88
North Texas Notes
(12/6) Caleb Hawkins inj in MWC title game was huge
(12/2) Hired HC Neal Brown after Morris leaves for Ok St
(11/28) 600+ yds of Off in Temple W. NT in the AAC Title Game
(10/24) 37-0 closing run vs Char, Mestemaker 600+ yds
(10/10) UNT has allowed 200+ yds rushing 3 straight games
(10/9) NT Fatafehi Vailea II out for season, big loss
(10/9) DBs much better than F7, DL issues esp vs run
(10/8) Best Tackling grade via PFF into USF game
(9/19) Off on a tear, rFr QB Mestemaker brilliant start
(9/15) Mestemaker, Off has been great, WR deep
(8/18) QB1 rFr. Drew Mestemaker has won the job
(7/23) Sleeper, took SHSU Def best in the portal
North Texas Injury Report
Western Michigan Notes
(11/29) Beat EMU, will play Miami OH in MAC Championship
(11/20) Control MAC w/ W over N Ill. 361 rush, 32 pass!
(11/13) Great W over Ohio, leaders of the MAC now
(11/13) Def shut down Navarro, Run Off 210+. 5.0 ypc
(10/31) QB Lowry a weapon, JAG arm, only real rush threat
(10/31) Def meh vs Mia OH, all 400+ but good on 3rd D's
(10/22) DL is one of best in CFB, best in G5 statistically
(10/8) Def has improved a lot, red zone defense especially
(9/20) Off is terrible, esp Run Off. QB Lowry meh
(9/20) Huge win vs Toledo. Def held 5-18 3rd down, 3 TO
(8/30) QB B Jones starter, B Lowry is QB2, both bad
(8/30) Run game alarming bad vs Mich St, 1.2 ypc
Western Michigan Injury Report
North Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffWMU Def
Perf GradePerf #3 #63
SuccessSuc #4 #18
ExplosiveExp #30 #64
PPAPPA #3 #16
PowerPwr #28 #65
SP+SP+ #1 #46
Pts POPPO #3 #13
HavocHav #9 #35
North Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffWMU Def
Run GameRun #5 #78
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #24
Run ExplRExp #13 #97
PPAExp #4 #47
Run BlockR Blk #18 -
OL YdsOLY #2 #47
Stuff RateStuff #9 #88
TackleTak -  #107
North Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffWMU Def
Pass GamePass #2 #84
Pass SuccessPSuc #8 #23
Pass ExplPExl #63 #29
PPAExp #17 #13
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #19 #30
F7 HavocF7 #12 #19
DB HavocDB #25 #68
Western Michigan on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCatWMU OffUNT Def
Perf GradePerf #71 #27
SuccessSuc #56 #93
ExplosiveExp #136 #43
PPAPPA #102 #78
PowerPwr #124 #115
SP+SP+ #110 #67
Pts POPPO #103 #97
HavocHav #20 #107
Western Michigan Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
WMU OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #32 #53
Run SuccessRSuc #32 #125
Run ExplRExp #95 #82
PPAExp #56 #110
Run BlockR Blk #76 -
OL YdsOLY #28 #120
Stuff RateStuff #33 #127
TackleTak -  #8
Western Michigan Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCatWMU OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #100 #16
Pass SuccessPSuc #116 #29
Pass ExplPExl #119 #113
PPAExp #125 #56
Pass Block/RushP Blk #103 #78
F7 HavocF7 #60 #78
DB HavocDB #7 #127
Program Comparison
WMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

UNT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Waldo Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 59° - Wind: 11 mph
Rematch from Week 2
North Texas 12.0 (56.0)
North Texas won at Western Michigan this year (33-30)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
UNT's OC Jordan Davis (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Mestemaker31946569%43693499.4
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)5771%36005.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Hawkins2301424256.251
Makenzie McGill7538955.227
Ashton Gray5837756.551
Kiefer Sibley4527456.145
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wyatt Young7012641018.184
Cameron Dorner55886816.177
Miles Coleman47550211.759
Landon Sides34449113.260

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Wesloski1129260
Trey Fields (Tr)1007162
Will Jones II (Tr)824012
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)701003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keviyan Huddleston (Tr)3110510
Ethan Day (Tr)547580
Joshua Pierce (Tr)142210
Zhaiylen Scott142230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Fisher (Tr)483016
Bryan Allen Jr.151004
Da'Veawn Armstead (Tr)434104

WMU's OC Walt Bell (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Broc Lowry16626263%1803936.9
Brady Jones194048%136133.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Buckley179100395.667
Broc Lowry203963144.737
Devin Miles9942534.332
Ofa Mataele5725234.422
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tailique Williams (Tr)35478213.771
Baylin Brooks (Tr)27372013.842
Aveion Chenault23277212.045
Blake Bosma2725119.324

View Western Michigan's Full Roster

WMU's DC Chris O'Leary (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
James Camden855410
Sefa Saipaia Jr.776250
Tate Hallock672142
Jarvarius Sims (Tr)612104
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nadame Tucker (Tr)552215161
Rodney McGraw4297101
James Camden855410
Tyson Lee153330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joshua Franklin5362110
Aaron Wofford331008
Jarvarius Sims (Tr)612104