North Texas at UAB - 2025 Matchup Preview
North Texas logo North Texas Mean Green at UAB BlazersUAB logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (2:00 PM EST)
North Texas -17.5 (69.5) (-1000)  Open: -17.5 | 69.5
North Texas 53 - UAB: 24  (American Athletic)

 
Mean Green (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (44 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.6 - 2.4 (#9)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
UNT coming off BYE
Our Line: North Texas -22.5  (SP+ UNT -32.5)

Projected Score: UNT: 45 - UAB: 23 (68)
UNT Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
UNT Travel: 598 miles
Blazers (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Alex Mortensen (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 38 (28 - 38 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 North Texas vs Lamar-27.563.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 North Texas at Western Michigan-12.056.0W 33 - 30ON
Sat 9/13 North Texas vs Washington State-6.557.5W 59 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 North Texas at Army-2.550.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 9/27 North Texas vs South Alabama-13.563.5W 36 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/10 North Texas vs South Florida-2.568.5L 36 - 63ON
Sat 10/18 North Texas vs UTSA-4.064.5W 55 - 17OY
Fri 10/24 North Texas at Charlotte-25.560.5W 54 - 20OY
Sat 11/1 North Texas vs Navy-6.568.5W 31 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 North Texas at UAB-17.569.5W 53 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 North Texas at Rice-18.557.0W 56 - 24OY
Fri 11/28 North Texas vs Temple-20.065.5W 52 - 25OY
Fri 12/5 North Texas at Tulane-1.566.5L 21 - 34UN
Sat 12/27 North Texas vs San Diego State-7.555.5W 49 - 47ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 4, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
UAB's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UAB vs Alabama State-21.053.5W 52 - 42ON
Sat 9/6 UAB at Navy+20.559.0L 24 - 38OY
Sat 9/13 UAB vs Akron-12.558.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 9/20 UAB at Tennessee+39.569.5L 24 - 56OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 UAB vs Army+6.555.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 10/11 UAB at Florida Atlantic+4.566.5L 33 - 53ON
Sat 10/18 UAB vs Memphis+23.559.5W 31 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UAB at UConn+10.061.5L 19 - 38UN
Sat 11/8 UAB at Rice-1.551.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 11/15 UAB vs North Texas+17.569.5L 24 - 53ON
Sat 11/22 UAB vs South Florida+21.568.5L 18 - 48UN
Sat 11/29 UAB at Tulsa+9.056.5W 31 - 24UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for UAB's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#3 (.36)51% (4)45.153% (3)3.58 (2)16851% (8)2994.98 (3)#78 (.18)44% (93)26.548% (125)37% (29)3.93 (97)39.11.21.8
UAB#55 (.19)42% (64)26.444% (63)3.12 (36)13942% (62)2663.63 (77)#135 (.34)49% (132)38.350% (131)48% (126)4.71 (135)61.21.80.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)40% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)47% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1
UAB#85 (.16)45% (42)47% (32)3.19 (42)13144% (48)2623.43 (109)#101 (.23)45% (104)52% (132)35% (12)4.24 (110)73.82.21.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Offense1445.143.751.2%4.981.2244671682995.147%51%53%51%12%.36
UAB Defense1238.337.748.9%4.710.8 - - - - - 61%38%50%48%12%.34
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Defense1426.528.343.6%3.931.8 - - - - - 60%38%48%37%14%.18
UAB Offense1226.428.242.4%3.631.8224041392664.245%53%44%42%15%.19

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Texas1426:0323.546%69%4.939.11.21.851.6033.6
UAB1231:182246%47%7.461.21.80.84.11.4128.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Offense1447% (87)53% (3)33.1167.95.145 (1).33 (4)3.58 (2)73% (67)7% (12)1.11 (13)
UAB Defense1261% (136)50% (131) - - - - .22 (127)3.35 (131)83% (129)8% (115)0.91 (42)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Defense1460% (134)48% (125) - - - - .18 (110)3.23 (120)78% (114)9% (78)0.98 (82)
UAB Offense1245% (110)44% (63)32.9138.84.220 (49).17 (42)3.12 (36)71% (79)9% (69)1.09 (23)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Offense1451% (47)51% (8)21.330.6299.49.814.132 (8)7 (20).43 (17)1.6 (63)26% (12)39% (8).44 (21)5% (25)2 (73)
UAB Defense1238% (1)48% (126) - - - - - - 4 (100).52 (136)1.9 (134)27% (131)32% (92).41 (116)4% (130)2.1 (105)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Defense1438% (2)37% (29) - - - - - - 13 (31).21 (56)1.7 (113)29% (116)29% (62).27 (62)4% (127)1.9 (30)
UAB Offense1253% (32)42% (62)23.936.5265.67.311.120 (42)16 (88).27 (59)1.5 (73)31% (68)33% (32).36 (49)6% (68)2.1 (39)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: 1.20  #65
North Texas's Offense Rating: 16.98  #28
North Texas's Defense Rating: 15.78  #115
2025 Talent Rating: 618.00  #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 11.6 - 2.4
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5  #15
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2  #1
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #67

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: 1.20   UAB: -13.165

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: 17.5   UAB: -15.1




UAB's Power Ratings
UAB's Power Rating: -13.165  #130
UAB's Offense Rating: 5.78  #88
UAB's Defense Rating: 22.01  #133
2025 Talent Rating: 530.00  #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
UAB's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
UAB's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.1  #122
UAB's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7  #79
UAB's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.2  #132

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 43.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.3

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 45
UAB 23


Total Points: 68

Based on Last 4 Games
North Texas 39
UAB 26

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
North Texas 41
UAB 28

Total Points: 69
UAB Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.2
Defense: 38.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 37.7

UAB's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15UAB24North Texas53North Texas -17.5North Texas69.5Over
202311/25North Texas45UAB42North Texas -3Push72.5Over
202211/12UAB41North Texas21UAB -6.5UAB58.0Over
202109/18North Texas6UAB40UAB -12.5UAB58.5Under
201911/30North Texas21UAB26UAB -3.5UAB50.0Under
201810/20UAB29North Texas21UAB -1.5UAB53.0Under
201709/23North Texas46UAB43North Texas -10UAB60.5Over
201410/11UAB56North Texas21UAB -3UAB0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UAB564 Overs
North Texas313 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 33 - 43 - 10 - 3
Road Teams3 - 54 - 33 - 01 - 3

(#65) UNT at (#130) UAB
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNTUAB
Power RatePwr #65 #130
SP+SP+ #15 #122
Perf GradeGrade #8 #111
OffenseOff #3 #53
DefenseDef #27 #132
Spec TeamsST #54 #135
TalentTal #91 #111
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #79
North Texas Notes
(12/6) Caleb Hawkins inj in MWC title game was huge
(12/2) Hired HC Neal Brown after Morris leaves for Ok St
(11/28) 600+ yds of Off in Temple W. NT in the AAC Title Game
(10/24) 37-0 closing run vs Char, Mestemaker 600+ yds
(10/10) UNT has allowed 200+ yds rushing 3 straight games
(10/9) NT Fatafehi Vailea II out for season, big loss
(10/9) DBs much better than F7, DL issues esp vs run
(10/8) Best Tackling grade via PFF into USF game
(9/19) Off on a tear, rFr QB Mestemaker brilliant start
(9/15) Mestemaker, Off has been great, WR deep
(8/18) QB1 rFr. Drew Mestemaker has won the job
(7/23) Sleeper, took SHSU Def best in the portal
North Texas Injury Report
UAB Notes
(12/10) Worst program in AAC. Will be ‘26 doormat
(12/4) Interim HC Alex Mortensen has been hired full time
(10/19) Off good, Def great in Memphis W after Dilfer fired
(10/12) HC Dilfer finally fired after 2-4, 3 straight L's
(10/12) Interim HC is OC Alex Mortensen
(10/11) 3 straight L's, defense is horrific, Fire Dilfer already
(9/17) Last 2 games: 55 points 1st half, 0 in 2nd
(8/30) Def torched by Ala. St, 300 pass, 200 rush
(8/30) Run Off good vs Ala St, Kitna decent, we'll see
(6/14) RB Jackson has 2k yds past two years (Utep/FCS)
(6/14) Def poor LY, added 17 portals, 5 DL, 10 DBs
(6/14) WR Milliner had decent Fr year, 3 portals, meh
UAB Injury Report
North Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffUAB Def
Perf GradePerf #3 #132
SuccessSuc #4 #132
ExplosiveExp #30 #94
PPAPPA #3 #135
PowerPwr #28 #133
SP+SP+ #1 #132
Pts POPPO #3 #135
HavocHav #9 #130
North Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffUAB Def
Run GameRun #5 #110
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #131
Run ExplRExp #13 #42
PPAExp #4 #127
Run BlockR Blk #18 -
OL YdsOLY #2 #131
Stuff RateStuff #9 #130
TackleTak -  #131
North Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffUAB Def
Pass GamePass #2 #136
Pass SuccessPSuc #8 #126
Pass ExplPExl #63 #134
PPAExp #17 #136
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #19 #118
F7 HavocF7 #12 #115
DB HavocDB #25 #130
UAB on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatUAB OffUNT Def
Perf GradePerf #53 #27
SuccessSuc #64 #93
ExplosiveExp #31 #43
PPAPPA #55 #78
PowerPwr #88 #115
SP+SP+ #79 #67
Pts POPPO #77 #97
HavocHav #65 #107
UAB Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UAB OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #85 #53
Run SuccessRSuc #63 #125
Run ExplRExp #23 #82
PPAExp #42 #110
Run BlockR Blk #42 -
OL YdsOLY #36 #120
Stuff RateStuff #55 #127
TackleTak -  #8
UAB Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatUAB OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #86 #16
Pass SuccessPSuc #62 #29
Pass ExplPExl #73 #113
PPAExp #59 #56
Pass Block/RushP Blk #44 #78
F7 HavocF7 #69 #78
DB HavocDB #68 #127
Program Comparison
UAB 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

UNT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Protective Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 77° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 12
North Texas 17.5 (69.5)
North Texas won at UAB this year (53-24)

Previous Matchups
North Texas beat UAB in 2023 (45-42)
UAB beat North Texas in 2022 (41-21)

  
UNT's OC Jordan Davis (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Mestemaker31946569%43693499.4
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)5771%36005.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Hawkins2301424256.251
Makenzie McGill7538955.227
Ashton Gray5837756.551
Kiefer Sibley4527456.145
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wyatt Young7012641018.184
Cameron Dorner55886816.177
Miles Coleman47550211.759
Landon Sides34449113.260

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Wesloski1129260
Trey Fields (Tr)1007162
Will Jones II (Tr)824012
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)701003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keviyan Huddleston (Tr)3110510
Ethan Day (Tr)547580
Joshua Pierce (Tr)142210
Zhaiylen Scott142230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Fisher (Tr)483016
Bryan Allen Jr.151004
Da'Veawn Armstead (Tr)434104

UAB's OC Alex Mortensen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jalen Kitna22333766%246213117.3
Ryder Burton (Tr)629863%708757.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jevon Jackson (Tr)16790055.458
Isaiah Jacobs7934244.323
Solomon Beebe5633866.081
Nate Rogers138426.515
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Iverson Hooks72927712.951
BJ Hawkins Jr.41540513.268
Corri Milliner24341314.249
Solomon Beebe3128409.243

View UAB's Full Roster

UAB's DC Steve Russ (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devin Hightower (Tr)813120
Jeremiah Vessel (Tr)541102
AJ Brown530000
Eamon Smalls504110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Burge325470
Jonathan Allen343210
Eddy Toussom467230
Eli Ennis (Tr)112200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tamarion Crumpley (Tr)182006
Delvon Gulley (Tr)191013
Perry Fisher (Tr)210003