North Texas at Charlotte - 2025 Matchup Preview
North Texas logo North Texas Mean Green at Charlotte 49ersCharlotte logo
Friday, October 24th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
North Texas -25.5 (60.5) (0)  Open: -26.5 | 58.5
North Texas 54 - Charlotte: 20  (American Athletic)

 
Mean Green (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (44 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.6 - 2.4 (#9)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
CHAR 2nd straight Home Game
CHAR is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: North Texas -27.5  (SP+ UNT -40.5)

Projected Score: UNT: 44 - CHAR: 17 (61)
UNT Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
UNT Travel: 948 miles, 1 hrs behind
49ers (1 - 11) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 14 - 36 (17 - 36 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 North Texas vs Lamar-27.563.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 North Texas at Western Michigan-12.056.0W 33 - 30ON
Sat 9/13 North Texas vs Washington State-6.557.5W 59 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 North Texas at Army-2.550.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 9/27 North Texas vs South Alabama-13.563.5W 36 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/10 North Texas vs South Florida-2.568.5L 36 - 63ON
Sat 10/18 North Texas vs UTSA-4.064.5W 55 - 17OY
Fri 10/24 North Texas at Charlotte-25.560.5W 54 - 20OY
Sat 11/1 North Texas vs Navy-6.568.5W 31 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 North Texas at UAB-17.569.5W 53 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 North Texas at Rice-18.557.0W 56 - 24OY
Fri 11/28 North Texas vs Temple-20.065.5W 52 - 25OY
Fri 12/5 North Texas at Tulane-1.566.5L 21 - 34UN
Sat 12/27 North Texas vs San Diego State-7.555.5W 49 - 47ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 4, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Charlotte's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Charlotte vs App State+8.553.5L 11 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Charlotte vs North Carolina+16.549.5L 3 - 20UN
Sat 9/13 Charlotte vs Monmouth-3.066.5W 42 - 35OY
Thu 9/18 Charlotte vs Rice+1.541.5L 17 - 28ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 Charlotte at South Florida+28.554.5L 26 - 54OY
Sat 10/11 Charlotte at Army+17.545.5L 7 - 24UY
Sat 10/18 Charlotte vs Temple+10.047.5L 14 - 49ON
Fri 10/24 Charlotte vs North Texas+25.560.5L 20 - 54ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Charlotte at East Carolina+29.556.5L 22 - 48OY
Sat 11/15 Charlotte vs UTSA+16.557.5L 7 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Charlotte at Georgia+42.553.5L 3 - 35UY
Sat 11/29 Charlotte at Tulane+31.552.5L 0 - 27UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 3

Predictions for Charlotte's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)45.140% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)26.547% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1
CHAR#116 (.1)37% (122)14.339% (110)2.75 (113)11935% (120)2243.9 (70)#113 (.25)45% (107)36.348% (111)42% (83)3.87 (81)65.31.81
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CHAR0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Offense1345.143.742.5%3.911.5224511532985.638%62%40%44%15%.23
CHAR Defense1236.335.745.3%3.871 - - - - - 56%44%48%42%15%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Defense1326.528.344.3%4.031.1 - - - - - 54%46%47%42%11%.22
CHAR Offense1214.317.237.1%3.91.8173431192243.747%52%39%35%17%.1

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Texas1325:0522.136%48%6.352.51.51.14.51.7128.4
Charlotte1228:3717.330%42%7.865.31.814.91.2126.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Offense1338% (129)40% (109)27.6153.25.622 (55).17 (44)2.75 (111)58% (128)9% (51)1.25 (4)
CHAR Defense1256% (118)48% (111) - - - - .19 (104)3.27 (106)68% (35)8% (114)0.96 (57)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Defense1354% (105)47% (106) - - - - .19 (102)3.29 (111)75% (74)7% (128)0.96 (54)
CHAR Offense1247% (88)39% (110)32.3118.73.716 (90).09 (93)2.75 (113)68% (105)11% (106)1.1 (24)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Offense1362% (6)44% (39)25.239.82987.511.931 (6)12 (85).26 (64)1.6 (60)33% (88)34% (35).35 (64)6% (71)2 (93)
CHAR Defense1244% (18)42% (83) - - - - - - 10 (66).34 (112)1.8 (122)31% (92)33% (107).57 (132)6% (51)2.4 (133)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Defense1346% (26)42% (79) - - - - - - 10 (66).29 (98)1.7 (94)31% (90)30% (72).31 (69)4% (128)2.1 (93)
CHAR Offense1252% (46)35% (120)14.829.4224.17.615.216 (87)14 (115).12 (120)1.9 (6)35% (123)29% (96).23 (103)6% (57)2.3 (3)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -5.79  #80
North Texas's Offense Rating: 13.55  #65
North Texas's Defense Rating: 19.34  #100
2025 Talent Rating: 618.00  #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 11.6 - 2.4
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8  #22
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.1  #1
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #78

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -5.79   Charlotte: -23.55

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: 13.8   Charlotte: -26.7




Charlotte's Power Ratings
Charlotte's Power Rating: -23.55  #134
Charlotte's Offense Rating: -0.08  #133
Charlotte's Defense Rating: 25.32  #131
2025 Talent Rating: 588.00  #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Charlotte's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Charlotte's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -26.7  #134
Charlotte's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.5  #132
Charlotte's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.8  #132

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 43.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.3

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 44
Charlotte 17


Projected Total Points: 61
Charlotte Scoring
Offense: 14.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.2
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 35.7

Charlotte's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/24Charlotte20North Texas54North Texas -25.5North Texas60.5Over
202010/10North Texas21Charlotte49Charlotte -3Charlotte66.0Over
201910/26Charlotte39North Texas38North Texas -4Charlotte64.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Charlotte223 Overs
North Texas110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 21 - 20 - 01 - 2
Road Teams2 - 12 - 12 - 10 - 0

(#80) UNT at (#134) CHAR
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNTCHAR
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #80 #134
SP+SP+ #22 #134
Perf GradeGrade #9 #129
OffenseOff #3 #113
DefenseDef #39 #132
Spec TeamsST #55 #129
TalentTal #91 #97
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #65
North Texas Notes
(12/6) Caleb Hawkins inj in MWC title game was huge
(12/2) Hired HC Neal Brown after Morris leaves for Ok St
(11/28) 600+ yds of Off in Temple W. NT in the AAC Title Game
(10/24) 37-0 closing run vs Char, Mestemaker 600+ yds
(10/10) UNT has allowed 200+ yds rushing 3 straight games
(10/9) NT Fatafehi Vailea II out for season, big loss
(10/9) DBs much better than F7, DL issues esp vs run
(10/8) Best Tackling grade via PFF into USF game
(9/19) Off on a tear, rFr QB Mestemaker brilliant start
(9/15) Mestemaker, Off has been great, WR deep
(8/18) QB1 rFr. Drew Mestemaker has won the job
(7/23) Sleeper, took SHSU Def best in the portal
North Texas Injury Report
Charlotte Notes
(10/19) Team is awful, Off is bad but Def is worse.
(10/4) QB1 is now Zach Wilcke, played OK in USF blowout
(10/4) Off is still really bad, can't run. 3 QBs thru wk 6
(10/2) QB1 Connor Harrell out for season (knee), Loftis QB1
(9/18) WR E. Jai Mason a baller to watch. QB meh
(9/18) Run Off awful, Run Def bad. Not much hope
(9/18) Tim Albin very good coach but roster is bad
(8/30) QB Harrell bad, Run game putrid vs App St
(8/30) Def torched for 580+ vs App St, Pass D worse?
(3/24) QB Connor Harrell (NC) or G Loftis (Duke)
(3/24) RB rebuild. Chaney (Lou) added, depth?
(3/24) WR complete rebuild. 5 portals.
Charlotte Injury Report
North Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffCHAR Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #3 #132
SuccessSuc #70 #107
ExplosiveExp #4 #85
PPAPPA #45 #113
PowerPwr #65 #131
SP+SP+ #1 #132
Pts POPPO #69 #81
HavocHav #47 #87
North Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffCHAR Def
Run GameRun #4 #130
Run SuccessRSuc #109 #111
Run ExplRExp #4 #57
PPAExp #44 #104
Run BlockR Blk #11 -
OL YdsOLY #111 #106
Stuff RateStuff #107 #100
TackleTak -  #129
North Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffCHAR Def
Pass GamePass #11 #122
Pass SuccessPSuc #39 #83
Pass ExplPExl #60 #122
PPAExp #64 #112
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #17 #121
F7 HavocF7 #51 #114
DB HavocDB #71 #51
Charlotte on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatCHAR OffUNT Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #113 #39
SuccessSuc #122 #98
ExplosiveExp #2 #62
PPAPPA #116 #98
PowerPwr #133 #100
SP+SP+ #132 #78
Pts POPPO #70 #93
HavocHav #92 #133
Charlotte Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
CHAR OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #136 #75
Run SuccessRSuc #110 #106
Run ExplRExp #24 #54
PPAExp #93 #102
Run BlockR Blk #104 -
OL YdsOLY #113 #111
Stuff RateStuff #109 #116
TackleTak -  #3
Charlotte Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatCHAR OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #77 #17
Pass SuccessPSuc #120 #79
Pass ExplPExl #6 #94
PPAExp #120 #98
Pass Block/RushP Blk #126 #83
F7 HavocF7 #106 #128
DB HavocDB #57 #128
Program Comparison
CHAR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

UNT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jerry Richardson Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 62°
Rematch from Week 9
North Texas 25.5 (60.5)
North Texas won at Charlotte this year (54-20)

Previous Matchups
North Texas beat Charlotte last year (54-20)

  
UNT's OC Jordan Davis (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Mestemaker31946569%43693499.4
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)5771%36005.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Hawkins2311424256.251
Makenzie McGill7538955.227
Ashton Gray5837756.551
Kiefer Sibley4527456.145
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wyatt Young7012641018.184
Cameron Dorner55886816.177
Miles Coleman47550211.759
Landon Sides34449113.260

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Wesloski1139260
Trey Fields (Tr)1007162
Will Jones II (Tr)824012
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)701003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keviyan Huddleston (Tr)3110510
Ethan Day (Tr)547580
Zhaiylen Scott142230
Joshua Pierce (Tr)142210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Fisher (Tr)483016
Bryan Allen Jr.151004
Da'Veawn Armstead (Tr)434104

CHAR's OC Todd Fitch (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Grayson Loftis (Tr)12823255%1415886.1
Conner Harrell (Tr)649667%737427.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rod Gainey Jr.7426013.537
Cameren Smith (Tr)6222003.513
Jariel Cobb (Tr)5119003.721
C.J. Stokes4814913.121
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javen Nicholas (Tr)60740512.364
Sean Brown36508114.146
E. Jai Mason31423413.662
Miles Burris1413409.618

View Charlotte's Full Roster

CHAR's DC Nate Faanes (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reid Williford746420
Kadin Schmitz (Tr)651032
Ja'Qurious Conley640002
Shay Taylor (Tr)626260
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reid Williford746420
Curtis Simpson (Tr)315341
Shay Taylor (Tr)626260
Yamil Talib284251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Thailand Baldwin (Tr)200004
Ja'Qurious Conley640002
Derrick Edwards191002