Washington State at North Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview
Washington State logo Washington State Cougars at North Texas Mean GreenNorth Texas logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
North Texas -6.5 (57.5) (-278)  Open: 0.0
North Texas 59 - Washington State: 10

 
Cougars (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jimmy Rogers (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (16 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#71)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
Temp: 92.7° (37% Hum)
Our Line: North Texas -11  (SP+ UNT -14)

Projected Score: WSU: 21 - UNT: 32 (52)
UNT Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
WSU Travel: 1405 miles, 2 hrs behind
Mean Green (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (46 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.6 - 2.4 (#9)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
 
Washington State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Washington State vs Idaho-16.550.5W 13 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 Washington State vs San Diego State-2.046.5W 36 - 13OY
Sat 9/13 Washington State at North Texas+6.557.5L 10 - 59ON
Sat 9/20 Washington State vs Washington+21.051.5L 24 - 59ON
Sat 9/27 Washington State at Colorado State+4.548.5W 20 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Washington State at Ole Miss+33.558.5L 21 - 24UY
Sat 10/18 Washington State at Virginia+16.556.5L 20 - 22UY
Sat 10/25 Washington State vs Toledo+1.544.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 11/1 Washington State at Oregon State-3.547.5L 7 - 10UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Washington State vs Louisiana Tech-10.043.5W 28 - 3UY
Sat 11/22 Washington State at James Madison+15.044.5L 20 - 24UY
Sat 11/29 Washington State vs Oregon State-14.042.5W 32 - 8UY
Mon 12/22 Washington State vs Utah State+1.050.0W 34 - 21OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 4, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Washington State's Schedule
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 North Texas vs Lamar-27.563.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 North Texas at Western Michigan-12.056.0W 33 - 30ON
Sat 9/13 North Texas vs Washington State-6.557.5W 59 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 North Texas at Army-2.550.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 9/27 North Texas vs South Alabama-13.563.5W 36 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/10 North Texas vs South Florida-2.568.5L 36 - 63ON
Sat 10/18 North Texas vs UTSA-4.064.5W 55 - 17OY
Fri 10/24 North Texas at Charlotte-25.560.5W 54 - 20OY
Sat 11/1 North Texas vs Navy-6.568.5W 31 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 North Texas at UAB-17.569.5W 53 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 North Texas at Rice-18.557.0W 56 - 24OY
Fri 11/28 North Texas vs Temple-20.065.5W 52 - 25OY
Fri 12/5 North Texas at Tulane-1.566.5L 21 - 34UN
Sat 12/27 North Texas vs San Diego State-7.555.5W 49 - 47ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WSU#92 (.13)42% (74)22.543% (69)2.82 (95)11041% (74)1823.93 (50)#24 (.07)40% (55)20.244% (93)37% (30)3.14 (28)50.51.40.8
UNT#3 (.36)51% (4)45.153% (3)3.58 (2)16851% (8)2994.98 (3)#78 (.18)44% (93)26.548% (125)37% (29)3.93 (97)39.11.21.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WSU#19 (.29)48% (15)47% (27)3.1 (54)15949% (8)2484.43 (23)#99 (.22)46% (112)51% (129)43% (91)4.18 (107)54.80.81.7
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)40% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)47% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WSU Offense1322.516.341.9%3.931.4172921101823.649%50%43%41%16%.13
UNT Defense1426.52243.6%3.931.8 - - - - - 60%38%48%37%14%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WSU Defense1320.223.740.5%3.140.8 - - - - - 51%47%44%37%15%.07
UNT Offense1445.145.751.2%4.981.2244671682995.147%51%53%51%12%.36

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Washington State1329:3817.237%74%6.250.51.40.84.82.2029
North Texas1426:0323.546%69%4.939.11.21.851.6033.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WSU Offense1349% (76)43% (69)30.4109.83.615 (122).09 (78)2.82 (95)68% (94)9% (60)0.85 (118)
UNT Defense1460% (134)48% (125) - - - - .18 (110)3.23 (120)78% (114)9% (78)0.98 (82)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WSU Defense1351% (88)44% (93) - - - - .08 (56)2.96 (80)71% (69)10% (53)0.83 (14)
UNT Offense1447% (87)53% (3)33.1167.95.145 (1).33 (4)3.58 (2)73% (67)7% (12)1.11 (13)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WSU Offense1350% (63)41% (74)17.927.7181.76.610.116 (61)12 (108).21 (93)1.4 (121)32% (77)27% (100).15 (122)7% (91)1.9 (114)
UNT Defense1438% (2)37% (29) - - - - - - 13 (31).21 (56)1.7 (113)29% (116)29% (62).27 (62)4% (127)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WSU Defense1347% (43)37% (30) - - - - - - 5.11 (19)1.4 (18)31% (68)23% (8).06 (2)5% (115)1.9 (28)
UNT Offense1451% (47)51% (8)21.330.6299.49.814.132 (8)7 (20).43 (17)1.6 (63)26% (12)39% (8).44 (21)5% (25)2 (73)

Washington State's Power Ratings
Washington State's Power Rating: -1.04  #72
Washington State's Offense Rating: 2.59  #109
Washington State's Defense Rating: 3.63  #37
2025 Talent Rating: 724.00  #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Washington State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 6.3
Washington State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1  #60
Washington State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.4  #97
Washington State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5  #28

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 748
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Washington State: -1.04   North Texas: 11.85

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Washington State: 3.1   North Texas: 17.5




North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: 11.85  #65
North Texas's Offense Rating: 16.98  #28
North Texas's Defense Rating: 15.78  #115
2025 Talent Rating: 618.00  #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 11.6 - 2.4
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5  #15
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2  #1
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #67

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Washington State Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.3
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.7

Washington State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 32
Washington State 21


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
North Texas 26
Washington State 12

Total Points: 38

Based on Entire Season
North Texas 34
Washington State 22

Total Points: 56
North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13North Texas59Washington State10North Texas -6.5North Texas57.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Texas111 Overs
Washington State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#72) WSU at (#65) UNT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWSUUNT
Power RatePwr #72 #65
SP+SP+ #60 #15
Perf GradeGrade #99 #8
OffenseOff #105 #3
DefenseDef #72 #27
Spec TeamsST #101 #54
TalentTal #70 #91
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
Washington State Notes
(12/13) Hired Kirby Moore (Mizzu OC) as HC ijn '26
(12/6) HC Rogers leaving for Iowa St. Another 1 yr HC
(10/19) 2 straight close L's @ Ole Miss & UVA. Improving
(10/7) Sched has been sneaky brutal and gets worse in Oct
(9/3) QB1 Potter, but Ekhaus didn't play as #2?
(8/5) QB Dugger (Pitt) very mobile, played bowl vs Tol
(7/31) 18 (of 36) portals from S Dakota w/ staff
(7/31) QB ?, Ekhaus is mobile vs So. Potter
(7/31) RB rebuild, Pulalasi has exp, 3 SDSt portals
(7/31) Moving to a ground & pound offense w/ Rogers
(7/31) 70+ new players, 27 FCS, 1/2 starters via SDSt
(3/22) HC Rogers was 27-3 @ S Dakota
Washington State Injury Report
North Texas Notes
(12/6) Caleb Hawkins inj in MWC title game was huge
(12/2) Hired HC Neal Brown after Morris leaves for Ok St
(11/28) 600+ yds of Off in Temple W. NT in the AAC Title Game
(10/24) 37-0 closing run vs Char, Mestemaker 600+ yds
(10/10) UNT has allowed 200+ yds rushing 3 straight games
(10/9) NT Fatafehi Vailea II out for season, big loss
(10/9) DBs much better than F7, DL issues esp vs run
(10/8) Best Tackling grade via PFF into USF game
(9/19) Off on a tear, rFr QB Mestemaker brilliant start
(9/15) Mestemaker, Off has been great, WR deep
(8/18) QB1 rFr. Drew Mestemaker has won the job
(7/23) Sleeper, took SHSU Def best in the portal
North Texas Injury Report
Washington State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
WSU OffUNT Def
Perf GradePerf #105 #27
SuccessSuc #74 #93
ExplosiveExp #132 #43
PPAPPA #92 #78
PowerPwr #109 #115
SP+SP+ #97 #67
Pts POPPO #50 #97
HavocHav #72 #107
Washington State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
WSU OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #93 #53
Run SuccessRSuc #69 #125
Run ExplRExp #118 #82
PPAExp #78 #110
Run BlockR Blk #114 -
OL YdsOLY #95 #120
Stuff RateStuff #97 #127
TackleTak -  #8
Washington State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
WSU OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #81 #16
Pass SuccessPSuc #74 #29
Pass ExplPExl #121 #113
PPAExp #93 #56
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #132 #78
F7 HavocF7 #60 #78
DB HavocDB #91 #127
North Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUNT OffWSU Def
Perf GradePerf #3 #72
SuccessSuc #4 #55
ExplosiveExp #30 #6
PPAPPA #3 #24
PowerPwr #28 #37
SP+SP+ #1 #28
Pts POPPO #3 #28
HavocHav #9 #91
North Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffWSU Def
Run GameRun #5 #87
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #93
Run ExplRExp #13 #14
PPAExp #4 #56
Run BlockR Blk #18 -
OL YdsOLY #2 #80
Stuff RateStuff #9 #75
TackleTak -  #135
North Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUNT OffWSU Def
Pass GamePass #2 #75
Pass SuccessPSuc #8 #30
Pass ExplPExl #63 #18
PPAExp #17 #19
Pass Block/RushP Blk #19 #59
F7 HavocF7 #12 #53
DB HavocDB #25 #115
Program Comparison
UNT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

WSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 93° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 3
North Texas -6.5 (57.5)
North Texas won vs Washington State this year (59-10)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
WSU's OC Danny Freund (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zevi Eckhaus19230663%209215126.8
Jaxon Potter679571%604436.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kirby Vorhees (Tr)13857654.246
Zevi Eckhaus11437183.322
Angel Johnson (Tr)7525213.450
Maxwell Woods (Tr)3622506.348
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Meredith57725312.748
Tony Freeman54588310.948
Jeremiah Noga (Tr)20221111.135
Trey Leckner2317437.632

View Washington State's Full Roster

WSU's DC Jesse Bobbit (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker McKenna835211
Caleb Francl (Tr)826253
Tucker Large (Tr)713006
Anthony Palano (Tr)651142
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Terrell2812761
Buddha Peleti (Tr)227450
Soni Finau (Tr)124430
Malaki Ta'ase (Tr)174332
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tucker Large (Tr)713006
Jamorri Colson221003
Caleb Francl (Tr)826253

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Mestemaker31946569%43693499.4
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)5771%36005.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Hawkins2301424256.251
Makenzie McGill7538955.227
Ashton Gray5837756.551
Kiefer Sibley4527456.145
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wyatt Young7012641018.184
Cameron Dorner55886816.177
Miles Coleman47550211.759
Landon Sides34449113.260

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Wesloski1129260
Trey Fields (Tr)1007162
Will Jones II (Tr)824012
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)701003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keviyan Huddleston (Tr)3110510
Ethan Day (Tr)547580
Joshua Pierce (Tr)142210
Zhaiylen Scott142230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Fisher (Tr)483016
Bryan Allen Jr.151004
Da'Veawn Armstead (Tr)434104