North Texas at Army - 2025 Matchup Preview
North Texas logo North Texas Mean Green at Army Black KnightsArmy logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
North Texas -2.5 (50.5) (-142)  Open: -1.5
North Texas 45 - Army: 38  (American Athletic)

 
Mean Green (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (44 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.6 - 2.4 (#9)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 6)
ARMY coming off BYE
UNT is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: North Texas -9.5  (SP+ UNT -19.5)

Projected Score: UNT: 32 - ARMY: 23 (55)
UNT Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
UNT Travel: 1389 miles, 1 hrs behind
Black Knights (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Monken (81 - 57)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (26 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 5)
 
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 North Texas vs Lamar-27.563.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 North Texas at Western Michigan-12.056.0W 33 - 30ON
Sat 9/13 North Texas vs Washington State-6.557.5W 59 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 North Texas at Army-2.550.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 9/27 North Texas vs South Alabama-13.563.5W 36 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/10 North Texas vs South Florida-2.568.5L 36 - 63ON
Sat 10/18 North Texas vs UTSA-4.064.5W 55 - 17OY
Fri 10/24 North Texas at Charlotte-25.560.5W 54 - 20OY
Sat 11/1 North Texas vs Navy-6.568.5W 31 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 North Texas at UAB-17.569.5W 53 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 North Texas at Rice-18.557.0W 56 - 24OY
Fri 11/28 North Texas vs Temple-20.065.5W 52 - 25OY
Fri 12/5 North Texas at Tulane-1.566.5L 21 - 34UN
Sat 12/27 North Texas vs San Diego State-7.555.5W 49 - 47ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Army's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Army vs Tarleton State-14.547.5L 27 - 30ON
Sat 9/6 Army at Kansas State+17.048.5W 24 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Army vs North Texas+2.550.5L 38 - 45ON
Thu 9/25 Army at East Carolina+3.552.5L 6 - 28UN
Sat 10/4 Army at UAB-6.555.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 10/11 Army vs Charlotte-17.545.5W 24 - 7UN
Sat 10/18 Army at Tulane+10.044.5L 17 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Army at Air Force-1.548.5W 20 - 17UY
Sat 11/8 Army vs Temple-7.545.5W 14 - 13UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Army vs Tulsa-10.043.5L 25 - 26ON
Sat 11/29 Army at UTSA+8.550.5W 27 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/13 Army vs Navy+6.038.0L 16 - 17UY
Sat 12/27 Army vs UConn-5.541.5W 41 - 16OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 6, Bad 1, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Army's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#3 (.36)51% (4)45.153% (3)3.58 (2)16851% (8)2994.98 (3)#78 (.18)44% (93)26.548% (125)37% (29)3.93 (97)39.11.21.8
ARMY#56 (.19)42% (70)23.843% (79)3.06 (46)22738% (106)733.7 (68)#75 (.18)44% (106)21.645% (98)45% (113)3.76 (74)21.90.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)40% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)47% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1
ARMY#10 (.32)51% (6)52% (7)3.57 (5)27843% (52)764.47 (19)#39 (.12)43% (89)45% (87)43% (88)2.57 (2)30.50.61.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Offense1445.143.751.2%4.981.2244671682995.147%51%53%51%12%.36
ARMY Defense1321.624.244.4%3.761.2 - - - - - 54%45%45%45%13%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Defense1426.528.343.6%3.931.8 - - - - - 60%38%48%37%14%.18
ARMY Offense1323.825.642.2%3.70.817299227734.384%15%43%38%8%.19

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Texas1426:0323.546%69%4.939.11.21.851.6033.6
Army1331:481739%70%2.621.90.81.23.21130.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Offense1447% (87)53% (3)33.1167.95.145 (1).33 (4)3.58 (2)73% (67)7% (12)1.11 (13)
ARMY Defense1354% (110)45% (98) - - - - .1 (68)3.13 (107)75% (96)8% (123)0.87 (21)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Defense1460% (134)48% (125) - - - - .18 (110)3.23 (120)78% (114)9% (78)0.98 (82)
ARMY Offense1384% (1)43% (79)53.2226.74.326 (23).15 (51)3.06 (46)78% (27)7% (13)0.96 (70)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Offense1451% (47)51% (8)21.330.6299.49.814.132 (8)7 (20).43 (17)1.6 (63)26% (12)39% (8).44 (21)5% (25)2 (73)
ARMY Defense1345% (24)45% (113) - - - - - - 8 (75).29 (90)1.5 (38)29% (109)30% (73).24 (53)5% (98)1.9 (35)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Defense1438% (2)37% (29) - - - - - - 13 (31).21 (56)1.7 (113)29% (116)29% (62).27 (62)4% (127)1.9 (30)
ARMY Offense1315% (136)38% (106)4.7972.58.115.55 (134)5 (20).47 (10)2.4 (1)27% (16)29% (81).25 (92)1% (1)1.7 (133)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: 1.20  #65
North Texas's Offense Rating: 16.98  #28
North Texas's Defense Rating: 15.78  #115
2025 Talent Rating: 618.00  #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 11.6 - 2.4
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5  #15
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2  #1
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #67

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: 1.20   Army: -0.155

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: 17.5   Army: -1.9




Army's Power Ratings
Army's Power Rating: -0.155  #84
Army's Offense Rating: 8.60  #69
Army's Defense Rating: 12.01  #94
2025 Talent Rating: 146.00  #135
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Army's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 6.7
Army's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.9  #80
Army's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1  #100
Army's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #55

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 43.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.3

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 32
Army 23


Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
North Texas 34
Army 26

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
North Texas 34
Army 26

Total Points: 60
Army Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.6
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Army's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Army38North Texas45North Texas -2.5North Texas50.5Over
202411/09North Texas3Army14Army -6.5Army68.0Under
201711/18North Texas52Army49North Texas -1.5North Texas59.5Over
201610/22Army18North Texas35Army -17.5North Texas48.0Over
201612/27North Texas31Army38Army -9.5North Texas47.0Over
201009/18Army24North Texas0
200911/21North Texas13Army17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Army414 Overs
North Texas341 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 52 - 31 - 11 - 2
Road Teams5 - 23 - 22 - 11 - 1

(#65) UNT at (#84) ARMY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNTARMY
Power RatePwr #65 #84
SP+SP+ #15 #80
Perf GradeGrade #8 #73
OffenseOff #3 #32
DefenseDef #27 #117
Spec TeamsST #54 #75
TalentTal #91 #135
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #101
North Texas Notes
(12/6) Caleb Hawkins inj in MWC title game was huge
(12/2) Hired HC Neal Brown after Morris leaves for Ok St
(11/28) 600+ yds of Off in Temple W. NT in the AAC Title Game
(10/24) 37-0 closing run vs Char, Mestemaker 600+ yds
(10/10) UNT has allowed 200+ yds rushing 3 straight games
(10/9) NT Fatafehi Vailea II out for season, big loss
(10/9) DBs much better than F7, DL issues esp vs run
(10/8) Best Tackling grade via PFF into USF game
(9/19) Off on a tear, rFr QB Mestemaker brilliant start
(9/15) Mestemaker, Off has been great, WR deep
(8/18) QB1 rFr. Drew Mestemaker has won the job
(7/23) Sleeper, took SHSU Def best in the portal
North Texas Injury Report
Army Notes
(11/29) Great win at UTSA to get bowl eligible. Navy game left
(8/30) Off decent, Def meh, mistakes in bad L vs Tar St
(8/24) QB1 D Coleman starter after E Washington inj
(5/19) QB Coleman, Hellums or Washington?
(5/17) Def returns a lot, but offense replacing most
(3/24) QB rebuild, Coleman some exp
(3/24) RB rebuild, Udoh gone (ASU). Have options
(3/24) WR rebuild, 3 career Rec. return.
(3/24) OL 3/5 back, depth some exp. Great LY
(3/24) Def was great LY, returns a lot. DL some size
(3/24) HC Monken incredible, 12 wins, AAC champs LY
Army Injury Report
North Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffARMY Def
Perf GradePerf #3 #117
SuccessSuc #4 #106
ExplosiveExp #30 #11
PPAPPA #3 #75
PowerPwr #28 #94
SP+SP+ #1 #55
Pts POPPO #3 #74
HavocHav #9 #121
North Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffARMY Def
Run GameRun #5 #124
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #98
Run ExplRExp #13 #21
PPAExp #4 #68
Run BlockR Blk #18 -
OL YdsOLY #2 #107
Stuff RateStuff #9 #112
TackleTak -  #73
North Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffARMY Def
Pass GamePass #2 #92
Pass SuccessPSuc #8 #113
Pass ExplPExl #63 #38
PPAExp #17 #90
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #19 #132
F7 HavocF7 #12 #123
DB HavocDB #25 #98
Army on Offense
Option Offense 85%, Pass: 14%
CategoryCatARMY OffUNT Def
Perf GradePerf #32 #27
SuccessSuc #70 #93
ExplosiveExp #122 #43
PPAPPA #56 #78
PowerPwr #69 #115
SP+SP+ #100 #67
Pts POPPO #68 #97
HavocHav #1 #107
Army Run Game
Option Offense 85%, Pass: 14%
CategoryCat
ARMY OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #112 #53
Run SuccessRSuc #79 #125
Run ExplRExp #70 #82
PPAExp #51 #110
Run BlockR Blk #4 -
OL YdsOLY #46 #120
Stuff RateStuff #5 #127
TackleTak -  #8
Army Pass Game
Option Offense 85%, Pass: 14%
CategoryCatARMY OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #53 #16
Pass SuccessPSuc #106 #29
Pass ExplPExl #1 #113
PPAExp #10 #56
Pass Block/RushP Blk #102 #78
F7 HavocF7 #13 #78
DB HavocDB #1 #127
Program Comparison
ARMY 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

UNT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Blaik Field at Michie Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 66° - Wind: 5 mph
Rematch from Week 4
North Texas 2.5 (50.5)
North Texas won at Army this year (45-38)

Previous Matchups
Army beat North Texas last year (14-3)

  
UNT's OC Jordan Davis (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Mestemaker31946569%43693499.4
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)5771%36005.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Hawkins2301424256.251
Makenzie McGill7538955.227
Ashton Gray5837756.551
Kiefer Sibley4527456.145
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wyatt Young7012641018.184
Cameron Dorner55886816.177
Miles Coleman47550211.759
Landon Sides34449113.260

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Wesloski1129260
Trey Fields (Tr)1007162
Will Jones II (Tr)824012
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)701003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keviyan Huddleston (Tr)3110510
Ethan Day (Tr)547580
Joshua Pierce (Tr)142210
Zhaiylen Scott142230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Fisher (Tr)483016
Bryan Allen Jr.151004
Da'Veawn Armstead (Tr)434104

ARMY's OC Cody Worley (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cale Hellums478754%694438.0
Dewayne Coleman193653%273227.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cale Hellums3051215184.050
Noah Short9857115.881
Hayden Reed7433534.537
Dewayne Coleman8529733.526
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Noah Short32438213.744
Bradyn Anderson14381227.268
Samari Howard11133112.141
Parker Poloskey454113.526

View Army's Full Roster

ARMY's DC Nate Woody (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andon Thomas1124135
Kalib Fortner838280
Collin Matteson792027
Casey Larkin693013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eric Ford528572
Jack Bousum287451
Cole Searight234201
Kalib Fortner838280
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Collin Matteson792027
Andon Thomas1124135
Casey Larkin693013