Purdue at Northwestern - 2025 Matchup Preview

Purdue Boilermakers at Northwestern Wildcats

Saturday, October 18th 2025 (3:00 PM EDT)
Northwestern -3 (47.5) (-162) Open: -3.0
Northwestern 19 - Purdue: 0 (Big Ten)

Boilermakers (2 - 8) (5 - 5 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 28 (17 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#130)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)

PUR 2nd straight Road Game
NW is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Northwestern -10 (SP+ NW -5)
Projected Score: PUR: 19 - NW: 29 (48)
NW Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
PUR Travel: 120 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wildcats (5 - 4) (6 - 3 - 0)
Coach David Braun (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 22 - 19 (27 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
PUR Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Purdue's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Purdue vs Ball State	-16.5	50.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Purdue vs Southern Illinois	-19.5	52.0	W 34 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/13	Purdue vs USC	+20.5	59.5	L 17 - 33	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Purdue at Notre Dame	+24.5	51.5	L 30 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Purdue vs Illinois	+7.5	55.5	L 27 - 43	O	N
Sat 10/11	Purdue at Minnesota	+7.5	49.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Purdue at Northwestern	+3.0	47.5	L 0 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/25	Purdue vs Rutgers	-2.5	60.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/1	Purdue at Michigan	+21.0	48.5	L 16 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Purdue vs Ohio State	+29.5	49.5	L 10 - 34	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Purdue at Washington	+25
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28	Purdue vs Indiana	+30

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule

Northwestern's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Northwestern at Tulane	+6.5	47.5	L 3 - 23	U	N
Fri 9/5	Northwestern vs Western Illinois	-30.5	48.5	W 42 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Northwestern vs Oregon	+25.5	50.5	L 14 - 34	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Northwestern vs UCLA	-6.0	45.5	W 17 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/4	Northwestern vs UL Monroe	-12.5	43.5	W 42 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Northwestern at Penn State	+20.5	46.5	W 22 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Northwestern vs Purdue	-3.0	47.5	W 19 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Northwestern at Nebraska	+7.5	44.5	L 21 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/7	Northwestern at USC	+14.5	54.5	L 17 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/15	Northwestern vs Michigan	+11.5
Sat 11/22	Northwestern vs Minnesota	-2
Sat 11/29	Northwestern at Illinois	+11.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	#93 (.13)	45% (43)	20.9	46% (42)	2.85 (67)	128	44% (51)	211	3.33 (109)	#109 (.21)	45% (114)	27.7	46% (108)	45% (109)	3.55 (61)	45	1.7	0.7
NW	#102 (.11)	44% (55)	21.9	48% (30)	2.59 (100)	168	41% (81)	153	2.66 (132)	#66 (.14)	42% (80)	19.1	46% (114)	38% (33)	2.95 (14)	25.3	1.4	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)		42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)		49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Offense	10	20.9	16.5	44.8%	3.33	1.7	19	339	128	211	4.3	47%	52%	46%	44%	15%	.13
NW Defense	9	19.1	12.4	42.4%	2.95	1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	46%	38%	15%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Defense	10	27.7	30.8	45.1%	3.55	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	46%	45%	17%	.21
NW Offense	9	21.9	26.8	44.1%	2.66	1.4	19	321	168	153	5	54%	45%	48%	41%	15%	.11

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Purdue	10	25:31	18.8	39%	65%	4.6	45	1.7	0.7	5.3	2.1	0	27.7
Northwestern	9	29:40	18.9	47%	60%	3.3	25.3	1.4	1	3.6	1.3	0	27.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Offense	10	47% (91)	46% (42)	29.7	128.1	4.3	11 (78)	.18 (35)	2.85 (67)	63% (120)	10% (80)	1.04 (37)
NW Defense	9	53% (102)	46% (114)	-	-	-	-	.19 (122)	3.26 (127)	73% (80)	8% (114)	1.03 (101)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Defense	10	55% (119)	46% (108)	-	-	-	-	.12 (94)	3.21 (124)	76% (100)	10% (54)	0.81 (11)
NW Offense	9	54% (39)	48% (30)	33.8	168.1	5	10 (99)	.11 (65)	2.59 (100)	83% (4)	8% (22)	0.86 (114)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Offense	10	52% (47)	44% (51)	18.3	30.1	210.7	7	11.5	13 (86)	10 (132)	.13 (113)	1.4 (111)	30% (59)	37% (20)	.31 (72)	5% (38)	1.9 (93)
NW Defense	9	46% (35)	38% (33)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (75)	.11 (21)	1.4 (13)	30% (102)	33% (106)	.27 (65)	7% (48)	1.8 (27)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Defense	10	44% (19)	45% (109)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (123)	.36 (115)	1.7 (120)	29% (109)	30% (73)	.22 (43)	6% (55)	1.9 (40)
NW Offense	9	45% (101)	41% (81)	14.1	24.3	153.2	6.3	10.9	10 (75)	9 (108)	.18 (99)	1.5 (62)	30% (52)	36% (24)	.28 (83)	7% (111)	1.8 (124)

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -5.00 #89
Purdue's Offense Rating: 6.21 #90
Purdue's Defense Rating: 11.21 #87
2025 Talent Rating: 754.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Purdue's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Purdue's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.0 #75
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #75
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #75

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -5.00 Northwestern: 6.385

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -2.0 Northwestern: 3.4

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: 6.385 #58
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 6.50 #85
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 2.13 #38
2025 Talent Rating: 840.00 #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Northwestern's 2025 Expected Record: 5.9 - 6.1
Northwestern's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.4 #59
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.7 #101
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.4 #24

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 20.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.5
Defense: 27.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.8

Purdue's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Northwestern 29
Purdue 19

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Northwestern 32
Purdue 21

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Northwestern 27
Purdue 17

Total Points: 44

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 21.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.8
Defense: 19.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.4

Northwestern's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Northwestern	19	Purdue	0	Northwestern -3	Northwestern	47.5	Under
2024	11/02	Purdue	20	Northwestern	26	Purdue -3	Northwestern	44.5	Over
2023	11/18	Northwestern	23	Purdue	15	Northwestern -2.5	Northwestern	47.5	Under
2022	11/19	Purdue	17	Northwestern	9	Purdue -17.5	Northwestern	44.5	Under
2021	11/20	Northwestern	14	Purdue	32	Purdue -11	Purdue	47.5	Under
2020	11/14	Purdue	20	Northwestern	27	Northwestern -3.5	Northwestern	48.5	Under
2019	11/09	Northwestern	22	Purdue	24	Purdue -0.0	Purdue	38.5	Over
2018	08/30	Purdue	27	Northwestern	31	Purdue -1	Northwestern	52.5	Over
2017	11/11	Northwestern	23	Purdue	13	Northwestern -6	Northwestern	49.5	Under
2016	11/12	Purdue	17	Northwestern	45	Northwestern -10.5	Northwestern	58.0	Over
2015	11/14	Northwestern	21	Purdue	14	Northwestern -13	Purdue	48.0	Under
2014	11/22	Purdue	14	Northwestern	38	Northwestern -2	Northwestern	0
2010	10/09	Northwestern	17	Purdue	20
2009	10/03	Purdue	21	Northwestern	27
2008	10/18	Northwestern	48	Purdue	26
2007	10/27	Purdue	35	Northwestern	17
2006	10/14	Northwestern	10	Purdue	31
2005	10/15	Purdue	29	Northwestern	34
2004	10/30	Northwestern	13	Purdue	10
2003	11/01	Purdue	34	Northwestern	14
2002	10/26	Northwestern	13	Purdue	42
2001	10/27	Purdue	32	Northwestern	27
2000	10/13	Northwestern	28	Purdue	41

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	13	9	4 Overs
Purdue	10	3	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 13	3 - 9	3 - 5	0 - 4
Road Teams	13 - 10	9 - 3	4 - 0	5 - 3

(#89) PUR at (#58) NW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PUR	NW
Power RatePwr	#89	#58
SP+SP+	#75	#59
Perf GradeGrade	#112	#60
OffenseOff	#92	#49
DefenseDef	#121	#97
Spec TeamsST	#20	#93
TalentTal	#65	#41
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#65

Purdue Notes(11/5) 0-17 vs P4 since 2024, 3 of last 4 by one score
(11/3) RB1 Devin Mockobee out for season (ankle)
(10/24) QB R. Browne doubtful vs Rutgers, Singleton meh
(9/22) Punter McAllister is a weapon, one of CFB best
(9/21) Off is fiesty, QB Brown is good. Def outmatched
(8/30) Brown torched Ball St 300+, Run Off awful
(8/22) QB1 Ryan Browne (NC) won starting job
(7/20) 21 new starters from LY, DBs could be v good
(5/11) Least exp'd P4 OL in CFB & 91% exp via portals
(4/4) QB - Singleton (Ark) is small/shifty runner. Arm?
(3/20) RB Mockobee starter LY, hopefully more TY
(3/20) WR rebuild. 5 portal adds (3 P4/2 G5)
Purdue Injury Report

Northwestern Notes(10/19) Have now won 4 straight, 3 in B1G play. Improving
(10/19) Def shut out Purdue, Run Off great, Run Def good
(10/19) QB Stone has been JAG- though, must game control
(9/14) Good fight w/ Ducks but Off has zero expl
(9/9) Top RB Cam Porter out for the season, ouch
(8/30) Stone 4 Int vs Tulane, Run Off & Run Def awful
(7/23) QB is Stone (SMU), no depth, Lausch retired
(5/21) Can WR Wilde (FCS SDSU) bring hope?
(5/21) DL is light, but has exp and some pass rush
(5/21) CBs exp'd but avg, Safeties are good though
(5/21) WR complete rebuild. Depth looks meh, huge ?
(5/21) OL 3/5 back, awful LY. 3 portals, OT Tiernan great
Northwestern Injury Report

Purdue on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	NW Def
Perf GradePerf	#92	#97
SuccessSuc	#43	#80
ExplosiveExp	#78	#30
PPAPPA	#93	#66
PowerPwr	#90	#38
SP+SP+	#75	#24
Pts POPPO	#109	#14
HavocHav	#63	#91

Purdue Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#69	#108
Run SuccessRSuc	#42	#114
Run ExplRExp	#37	#101
PPAExp	#35	#122
Run BlockR Blk	#87	-
OL YdsOLY	#67	#127
Stuff RateStuff	#54	#132
TackleTak	-	#125

Purdue Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#63	#74
Pass SuccessPSuc	#51	#33
Pass ExplPExl	#111	#13
PPAExp	#113	#21
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#113	#54
F7 HavocF7	#80	#114
DB HavocDB	#38	#48

Northwestern on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	NW Off	PUR Def
Perf GradePerf	#49	#121
SuccessSuc	#55	#114
ExplosiveExp	#123	#53
PPAPPA	#102	#109
PowerPwr	#85	#87
SP+SP+	#101	#75
Pts POPPO	#132	#61
HavocHav	#61	#57

Northwestern Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	NW Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#32	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	#30	#108
Run ExplRExp	#114	#11
PPAExp	#65	#94
Run BlockR Blk	#16	-
OL YdsOLY	#100	#124
Stuff RateStuff	#54	#71
TackleTak	-	#117

Northwestern Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	NW Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#118	#107
Pass SuccessPSuc	#81	#109
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#120
PPAExp	#99	#115
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#14	#99
F7 HavocF7	#22	#54
DB HavocDB	#111	#55

Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

PUR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in L&S Martin Stadium (Temp)
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Northwestern -3.0 (47.5)
Northwestern won vs Purdue this year (19-0)

Previous Matchups
Northwestern beat Purdue last year (26-20)
Northwestern beat Purdue in 2023 (23-15)
Purdue beat Northwestern in 2022 (17-9)

PUR's OC Josh Henson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ryan Browne (Tr)	173	285	61%	1898	9	8	6.7
Malachi Singleton (Tr)	20	34	59%	270	3	2	7.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mockobee	125	521	4	4.2	32
Antonio Harris	44	251	2	5.7	41
Malachi Thomas (Tr)	43	221	0	5.1	57
Ryan Browne (Tr)	60	195	4	3.3	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Michael Jackson III (Tr)	53	471	1	8.9	31
Nitro Tuggle (Tr)	26	368	4	14.2	33
Corey Smith (Tr)	14	237	1	16.9	60
Devin Mockobee	18	215	1	11.9	29

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Michael Scherer (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mani Powell (Tr)	94	10	4	1	2
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)	91	3	0	0	5
Charles Correa (Tr)	69	8	3	4	2
Myles Slusher	58	2	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
C.J. Nunnally	33	8	5	8	1
Mani Powell (Tr)	94	10	4	1	2
Charles Correa (Tr)	69	8	3	4	2
Jamarrion Harkless	11	2	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Hudauri Hines	29	2	0	7
Smiley Bradford	27	5	1	5
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)	91	3	0	5

NW's OC Zach Lujan (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Preston Stone (Tr)	146	246	59%	1522	11	9	6.2
Ryan Boe	1	2	50%	7	0	0	3.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Komolafe	141	726	8	5.1	56
Joseph Himon II	81	397	0	4.9	37
Dashun Reeder	22	222	1	10.1	79
Cam Porter	18	137	1	7.6	43

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Griffin Wilde (Tr)	43	593	5	13.8	49
Hayden Eligon Ii	17	224	2	13.2	37
Hunter Welcing	16	158	2	9.9	28
Drew Wagner	19	156	2	8.2	40

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Robert Fitzgerald	77	4	0	0	1
Mac Uihlein	69	5	0	0	0
Braydon Brus	44	2	1	2	3
Garner Wallace	34	1	1	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	24	6	4	5	0
Anto Saka	9	3	3	2	0
Michael Kilbane	26	5	3	6	0
Carmine Bastone	19	2	2	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Josh Fussell	12	0	6
Fred Davis II (Tr)	21	1	6
Ore Adeyi	14	1	4