App State at Marshall - 2024 Matchup Preview

App State Mountaineers at Marshall Thundering Herd

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Marshall -3 (56.5) (-155) Open: -1.0
Marshall 52 - App State: 37 (Sun Belt)

Mountaineers (5 - 6) (3 - 7 - 1)
Coach Shawn Clark (35 - 18)
Avg Score : 27 - 33 (24 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 6 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MRSH 2nd straight Home Game
APP coming off BYE
Our Line: Marshall -11.5 (SP+ MRSH -11)
Projected Score: APP: 23 - MRSH: 34 (57)
MRSH Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
APP Travel: 158 miles

Thundering Herd (10 - 3) (11 - 1 - 1)
Coach Charles Huff (22 - 17)
Avg Score : 32 - 23 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
APP Players
MRSH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

App State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	App State vs East Tennessee State	-35.5	58.5	W 38 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	App State at Clemson	+13.5	53.5	L 20 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/14	App State at East Carolina	+0.5	56.5	W 21 - 19	U	Y
Thu 9/19	App State vs South Alabama	-8.0	62.5	L 14 - 48	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	App State at Marshall	+3.0	56.5	L 37 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/12	App State at Louisiana	+10.0	64.0	L 24 - 34	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	App State vs Georgia State	-7.5	59.0	W 33 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/2	App State vs Old Dominion	+2.5	58.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Thu 11/7	App State at Coastal Carolina	-1.5	62.5	L 24 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	App State vs James Madison	+7.5	57.5	W 34 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/30	App State at Georgia Southern	+2.5	60.5	L 20 - 29	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for App State's Schedule

Marshall's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Marshall vs Stony Brook	-32.5	56.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Marshall at Virginia Tech	+20.5	52.5	L 14 - 31	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Marshall at Ohio State	+40.0	57.0	L 14 - 49	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Marshall vs Western Michigan	-3.5	53.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Marshall vs App State	-3.0	56.5	W 52 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Marshall at Georgia Southern	+1.0	58.5	L 23 - 24	U	Y
Thu 10/17	Marshall vs Georgia State	-9.5	51.5	W 35 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Marshall vs UL Monroe	-10.5	48.0	W 28 - 23	O	N
Sat 11/9	Marshall at Southern Miss	-13.5	53.5	W 37 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Marshall vs Coastal Carolina	-7.5	57.0	W 31 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Marshall at Old Dominion	+3.0	51.0	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Marshall at James Madison	+2.5	52.5	W 35 - 33	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Marshall at Louisiana	+5.0	58.0	W 31 - 3	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	#57 (.21)	44% (60)	26.6	45% (58)	3.01 (75)	157	43% (62)	273	3.89 (71)	#123 (.3)	49% (127)	32.9	51% (130)	47% (119)	4.78 (132)	57	2	1.2
MRSH	#60 (.21)	43% (66)	31.8	45% (47)	3.35 (18)	203	40% (88)	181	3.93 (66)	#47 (.13)	40% (46)	23.1	43% (75)	37% (21)	3.87 (79)	42.5	0.7	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	#57 (.21)	44% (60)		45% (58)	3.01 (75)	157	43% (62)	273	3.89 (71)	#123 (.3)	49% (127)		51% (130)	47% (119)	4.78 (132)	57	2	1.2
MRSH	#60 (.21)	43% (66)		45% (47)	3.35 (18)	203	40% (88)	181	3.93 (66)	#47 (.13)	40% (46)		43% (75)	37% (21)	3.87 (79)	42.5	0.7	1.5

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Offense	11	26.6	24.3	43.6%	3.89	2	24	430	157	273	4.5	48%	51%	45%	43%	16%	.21
MRSH Defense	13	23.1	20.3	40%	3.87	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	43%	37%	19%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Defense	11	32.9	39.7	49%	4.78	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	51%	47%	12%	.3
MRSH Offense	13	31.8	36.3	42.9%	3.93	0.7	20	384	203	181	5.2	59%	41%	45%	40%	13%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
App State	11	30:06	23.9	43%	59%	6	57	2	1.2	4.3	2.1	1	27.6
Marshall	13	28:39	19.8	40%	59%	5.4	42.5	0.7	1.5	6.6	2.6	2	31.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Offense	11	48% (81)	45% (58)	34.9	157.4	4.5	13 (105)	.1 (89)	3.01 (75)	80% (21)	7% (15)	0.89 (104)
MRSH Defense	13	53% (99)	43% (75)	-	-	-	-	.17 (93)	2.95 (57)	70% (50)	12% (30)	1.11 (118)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Defense	11	56% (124)	51% (130)	-	-	-	-	.26 (128)	3.41 (125)	77% (94)	9% (89)	1.04 (94)
MRSH Offense	13	59% (12)	45% (47)	38.8	202.5	5.2	21 (59)	.22 (27)	3.35 (18)	76% (49)	8% (32)	1.06 (39)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Offense	11	51% (53)	43% (62)	19.8	35.6	272.9	7.7	13.8	23 (41)	16 (124)	.32 (41)	1.8 (13)	35% (122)	37% (15)	.46 (19)	9% (130)	2.2 (18)
MRSH Defense	13	46% (37)	37% (21)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.13 (23)	1.6 (58)	34% (37)	26% (14)	.24 (40)	7% (25)	2.2 (102)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Defense	11	44% (10)	47% (119)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.37 (119)	1.5 (46)	26% (133)	35% (115)	.38 (100)	2% (134)	2 (62)
MRSH Offense	13	41% (123)	40% (88)	14.9	25.6	181.1	7.1	12.1	27 (20)	4 (1)	.23 (82)	1.7 (36)	30% (36)	30% (84)	.25 (98)	5% (52)	2 (76)

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: -8.96 #97
App State's Offense Rating: 21.99 #50
App State's Defense Rating: 17.06 #121
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
App State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 6.0
App State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.1 #100
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #110

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
App State: -8.96 Marshall: 2.885

SP+ Ratings Matchup
App State: -8.1 Marshall: 3.1

Marshall's Power Ratings
Marshall's Power Rating: 2.885 #71
Marshall's Offense Rating: 18.46 #82
Marshall's Defense Rating: 8.48 #57
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 9 #44
Marshall's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Marshall's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1 #58
Marshall's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #50
Marshall's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #71

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

App State Scoring
Offense: 26.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.3
Defense: 32.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.7

App State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 6
Record vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 2 - 9
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Marshall 34
App State 23

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Marshall 35
App State 20

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Marshall 35
App State 24

Total Points: 59

Marshall Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.3
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.3

Marshall's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 1 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	App State	26	Marshall	24	Marshall -3.5	App State	57.5	Under
2024	10/05	Marshall	52	App State	37	Marshall -3	Marshall	56.5	Over
2023	11/04	App State	31	Marshall	9	Appalachian State -3.0	App State	57.5	Under
2022	11/12	Marshall	28	App State	21	Appalachian State -2.0	Marshall	47.5	Over
2021	09/23	App State	31	Marshall	30	Appalachian State -7	Marshall	59.0	Over
2020	09/19	Marshall	17	App State	7	Appalachian State -6	Marshall	60.5	Under
2002	08/31	Marshall	50	App State	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Marshall	4	4	3 Overs
App State	3	2	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 0	5 - 1	2 - 1	3 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 7	1 - 5	0 - 3	1 - 2

(#97) APP at (#71) MRSH

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	APP	MRSH
Power RatePwr	#97	#71
SP+SP+	#100	#58
Perf GradeGrade	#84	#44
OffenseOff	#70	#98
DefenseDef	#92	#21
Spec TeamsST	#69	#21
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#44

App State Notes(12/10) Hired HC Loggains (OC/QB S Car 23-24)
(12/2) HC Clark fired after 40-24 in 5 yrs, Huff rumors?
(11/25) Huge upset vs JMU, box score L but 2 Def TOs
(11/8) Run D bad vs C.Car, 3 TO's hurt. QB Aguilar 2 INT
(11/3) Pass D torched by ODU, Aguilar good, forced 4 TOs
(10/22) Def stop rate 42% (#127) into week 9
(10/12) OG'd ULL but 5 TO's, QB/Rgame OK, Def meh
(9/23) Clark & staff better improve, feels stale/bad
(9/23) Missed 26 tackles! vs S Al
(9/19) This Off looks broken. Rgame awful, Aguilar erratic
(9/12) D not P5 ready, 712 yds to Clem. QB Aguilar ?
(7/30) QB Aguilar v good, WRs all back, lost RB to Mizzu.
App State Injury Report

Marshall Notes(12/14) Opted out bowl, no players/coaches. Shameful
(12/8) Won Sun Belt, did not extend HC Huff?
(12/8) Hired HC Tony Gibson (NC St DC)
(12/1) Great 2OT W @JMU, OG'd by 120 yds, QB bad
(11/25) Off great vs ODU. Need W vs JMU & help for SBC
(11/18) Somehow winning games w/ bad Off, meh Def
(11/3) Off Eff, Def enough in W (ULM). Now 3-1 SBC
(10/17) QB Braxton (very mobile) taken over for Earle
(10/17) QB Braxton pass bad/run good vs Ga St
(10/17) Rgame 295 yds, 8 ypc vs Ga St. Nearly gagged
(10/13) QB's awful, Rgame good. 21pt 4Q total gag (Ga So)
(8/17) Huff needs a good year to show progress
Marshall Injury Report

App State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	MRSH Def
Perf GradePerf	#70	#21
SuccessSuc	#60	#46
ExplosiveExp	#28	#86
PPAPPA	#57	#47
PowerPwr	#50	#57
SP+SP+	#67	#71
Pts POPPO	#71	#79
HavocHav	#66	#19

App State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	MRSH Def
Run GameRun	#48	#74
Run SuccessRSuc	#58	#75
Run ExplRExp	#104	#118
PPAExp	#89	#93
Run BlockR Blk	#54	-
OL YdsOLY	#75	#57
Stuff RateStuff	#87	#49
TackleTak	-	#20

App State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	MRSH Def
Pass GamePass	#95	#3
Pass SuccessPSuc	#62	#21
Pass ExplPExl	#13	#58
PPAExp	#41	#23
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#96	#25
F7 HavocF7	#15	#30
DB HavocDB	#130	#25

Marshall on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	MRSH Off	APP Def
Perf GradePerf	#98	#92
SuccessSuc	#66	#127
ExplosiveExp	#64	#53
PPAPPA	#60	#123
PowerPwr	#82	#121
SP+SP+	#50	#110
Pts POPPO	#66	#132
HavocHav	#32	#132

Marshall Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	MRSH Off	APP Def
Run GameRun	#64	#88
Run SuccessRSuc	#47	#130
Run ExplRExp	#39	#94
PPAExp	#27	#128
Run BlockR Blk	#93	-
OL YdsOLY	#18	#125
Stuff RateStuff	#42	#113
TackleTak	-	#86

Marshall Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	MRSH Off	APP Def
Pass GamePass	#84	#109
Pass SuccessPSuc	#88	#119
Pass ExplPExl	#36	#46
PPAExp	#82	#119
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#44	#34
F7 HavocF7	#32	#89
DB HavocDB	#52	#134

Program Comparison
MRSH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

APP 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Marshall -3.0 (56.5)
Marshall won vs App State this year (52-37)

Previous Matchups
Marshall beat App State last year (52-37)
App State beat Marshall in 2023 (31-9)
Marshall beat App State in 2022 (28-21)

APP's OC Frank Ponce (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Aguilar	218	390	56%	3002	23	14	7.7
Kaedin Robinson	0	1	0%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ahmani Marshall	149	713	7	4.8	29
Kanye Roberts	82	332	1	4.0	18
Anderson Castle	50	246	1	4.9	21
Joey Aguilar	58	217	2	3.7	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaedin Robinson	53	840	2	15.8	50
Makai Jackson	46	745	5	16.2	64
Christan Horn	19	367	1	19.3	83
Dalton Stroman	20	307	5	15.4	47

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC Scott Sloan (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Brendan Harrington	55	1	1	1
Kyle Arnholt	54	2	2	0
DJ Burks	52	3	0	0
Jason Chambers (Tr)	37	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Thomas Davis	35	6	4	1
Santana Hopper	30	8	4	0
Michael Fletcher	16	4	4	6
Joshua Donald (Tr)	31	6	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jordan Favors	33	1	0	4
Ethan Johnson	22	0	1	2
Brendan Harrington	55	1	1	1

MRSH's OC Seth Doege (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Braylon Braxton (Tr)	124	206	60%	1624	19	2	7.9
Stone Earle	65	120	54%	673	7	2	5.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
A.J. Turner	104	864	6	8.3	88
Braylon Braxton (Tr)	134	610	4	4.6	35
Jordan Houston (Tr)	111	592	2	5.3	45
Ethan Payne	65	323	7	5.0	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Christian Fitzpatrick (Tr)	34	576	6	16.9	69
Charles Montgomery	32	393	3	12.3	30
Carl Chester (Tr)	20	342	3	17.1	42
Elijah Metcalf (Tr)	20	194	3	9.7	28

View Marshall's Full Roster

MRSH's DC Jason Semore (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaden Yates	114	7	1	6	2
J.J. Roberts	94	5	1	3	12
Michael Green	78	21	17	15	2
Landyn Watson	66	4	0	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Green	78	21	17	15	2
D'Vion Harris	53	8	4	2	1
Jabari Ishmael	22	3	2	5	1
Chris Thomas Jr.	44	4	2	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.J. Roberts	94	5	1	3	12
Jacobie Henderson	50	2	0	0	10
Josh Moten	38	0	0	0	5