Old Dominion at App State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Old Dominion Monarchs at App State Mountaineers

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (2:30 PM EDT)
Old Dominion -2.5 (58.0) (-142) Open: -2.5
App State 28 - Old Dominion: 20 (Sun Belt)

Monarchs (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ricky Rahne (15 - 23)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (31 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

APP 2nd straight Home Game
ODU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Old Dominion -1 (SP+ ODU -2)
Projected Score: ODU: 29 - APP: 28 (57)
ODU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ODU Travel: 302 miles

Mountaineers (5 - 6) (3 - 7 - 1)
Coach Shawn Clark (35 - 18)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (27 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 6 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ODU Players
APP Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Old Dominion's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Old Dominion at South Carolina	+20.5	49.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Old Dominion vs East Carolina	-1.5	53.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech	+15.5	47.5	L 17 - 37	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Old Dominion at Bowling Green	+11.0	51.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina	+4.0	51.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/12	Old Dominion at Georgia State	+3.0	53.0	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Old Dominion vs Texas State	+10.5	60.0	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Thu 10/24	Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern	+1.0	52.0	W 47 - 19	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Old Dominion at App State	-2.5	58.0	L 20 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Old Dominion vs James Madison	+1.5	51.0	L 32 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/23	Old Dominion vs Marshall	-3.0	51.0	L 35 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/30	Old Dominion at Arkansas State	-5.5	58.5	W 40 - 32	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Old Dominion's Schedule

App State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	App State vs East Tennessee State	-35.5	58.5	W 38 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	App State at Clemson	+13.5	53.5	L 20 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/14	App State at East Carolina	+0.5	56.5	W 21 - 19	U	Y
Thu 9/19	App State vs South Alabama	-8.0	62.5	L 14 - 48	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	App State at Marshall	+3.0	56.5	L 37 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/12	App State at Louisiana	+10.0	64.0	L 24 - 34	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	App State vs Georgia State	-7.5	59.0	W 33 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/2	App State vs Old Dominion	+2.5	58.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Thu 11/7	App State at Coastal Carolina	-1.5	62.5	L 24 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	App State vs James Madison	+7.5	57.5	W 34 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/30	App State at Georgia Southern	+2.5	60.5	L 20 - 29	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ODU	#102 (.13)	38% (109)	32	41% (92)	3.08 (76)	154	37% (107)	195	3.14 (117)	#30 (.13)	44% (100)	18.5	42% (60)	47% (124)	3.49 (46)	60.6	1.4	1.6
APP	#41 (.24)	46% (28)	24.2	43% (75)	3.18 (55)	172	50% (11)	273	3.8 (77)	#79 (.2)	43% (76)	29.8	45% (93)	41% (58)	3.15 (17)	40.5	1.6	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ODU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
APP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ODU Offense	13	32	31	38.5%	3.14	1.4	17	348	154	195	4.2	50%	49%	41%	37%	20%	.13
APP Defense	14	29.8	26.7	42.6%	3.15	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	45%	41%	18%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ODU Defense	13	18.5	30	44.1%	3.49	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	47%	17%	.13
APP Offense	14	24.2	27	45.6%	3.8	1.6	24	445	172	273	4.5	51%	48%	43%	50%	16%	.24

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Old Dominion	13	24:49	16.5	37%	27%	6.5	60.6	1.4	1.6	6.1	1.5	2	29.1
App State	14	31:15	23.7	42%	64%	4.4	40.5	1.6	1.8	6	2.5	2	29.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ODU Offense	13	50% (70)	41% (92)	36.5	153.5	4.2	15 (100)	.17 (58)	3.08 (76)	62% (127)	15% (131)	1.18 (4)
APP Defense	14	50% (59)	45% (93)	-	-	-	-	.23 (112)	3.41 (120)	79% (108)	11% (40)	1.1 (113)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ODU Defense	13	52% (98)	42% (60)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (11)	2.81 (22)	70% (50)	11% (56)	0.73 (2)
APP Offense	14	51% (58)	43% (75)	38.1	171.6	4.5	23 (46)	.09 (99)	3.18 (55)	71% (92)	9% (49)	0.97 (83)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ODU Offense	13	49% (68)	37% (107)	15.7	27.8	194.8	7	12.4	20 (70)	11 (68)	.15 (112)	1.7 (39)	35% (119)	31% (70)	.3 (79)	5% (37)	2.2 (33)
APP Defense	14	49% (72)	41% (58)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.2 (30)	1.5 (36)	31% (81)	33% (110)	.43 (117)	7% (29)	2.1 (89)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ODU Defense	13	47% (38)	47% (124)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.31 (93)	1.5 (39)	28% (126)	30% (71)	.24 (36)	6% (70)	2.1 (76)
APP Offense	14	48% (75)	50% (11)	21.4	33.6	273.4	8.1	12.8	34 (9)	10 (56)	.44 (19)	1.6 (65)	29% (28)	37% (16)	.5 (19)	7% (108)	2.1 (45)

Old Dominion's Power Ratings
Old Dominion's Power Rating: -3.84 #77
Old Dominion's Offense Rating: 23.31 #34
Old Dominion's Defense Rating: 9.12 #66
2024 Talent Rating: 154.00 #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Old Dominion's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Old Dominion's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.0 #95
Old Dominion's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #78
Old Dominion's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.3 #99

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Old Dominion: -3.84 App State: -6.03

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Old Dominion: -6.0 App State: -8.1

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: -6.03 #97
App State's Offense Rating: 21.99 #50
App State's Defense Rating: 17.06 #121
2024 Talent Rating: 307.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
App State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 6.0
App State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.1 #100
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #110

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Old Dominion Scoring
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30

Old Dominion's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Old Dominion 29
App State 28

Projected Total Points: 57

App State Scoring
Offense: 24.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 27
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.7

App State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 6
Record vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 2 - 9
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Old Dominion	24	App State	21	Old Dominion -12.5	App State	60.5	Under
2024	11/02	App State	28	Old Dominion	20	Old Dominion -2.5	App State	58.0	Under
2023	10/21	Old Dominion	28	App State	21	Appalachian State -6	Old Dominion	56.0	Under
2022	11/19	App State	27	Old Dominion	14	Appalachian State -16.5	Old Dominion	50.5	Under
2016	09/10	App State	31	Old Dominion	7	Appalachian State -21	App State	54.0	Under
2015	09/26	Old Dominion	0	App State	49	Appalachian State -7	App State	54.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
App State	4	4	0 Overs
Old Dominion	2	2	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 1	3 - 3	1 - 2	2 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 5	3 - 3	1 - 2	2 - 1

(#77) ODU at (#97) APP

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ODU	APP
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#77	#97
SP+SP+	#95	#100
Perf GradeGrade	#117	#84
OffenseOff	#126	#70
DefenseDef	#82	#92
Spec TeamsST	#114	#69
TalentTal	#126	#72
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Old Dominion Notes(11/25) Fight w/ Marshall, Off great but 2 TOs cost em
(11/18) Fight w/ JMU, QB awful, Rgame good, R D awful
(11/3) 4 TOs broke W streak, QB Joseph good, Def bad
(10/24) Rgame good, Run D good in big W (GaSo)
(10/20) Rgame good, Run D better in big upset (Tex St)
(10/13) Rgame good, Run Def great vs Ga St. QB meh
(10/10) Rgame 200 yds(5.4 pc) L to C.Car., Def torched
(10/10) QB Joseph a huge upgrade, JAG w/ mobility
(9/28) Rgame better (189/5.3), QBs abysmal in L to BGU
(8/26) OL gave up most sacks in CFB LY
(7/30) Year 5, won last 2 LY to go bowling.
(7/30) OC Decker's off is unique, but roster is limiting
Old Dominion Injury Report

App State Notes(12/10) Hired HC Loggains (OC/QB S Car 23-24)
(12/2) HC Clark fired after 40-24 in 5 yrs, Huff rumors?
(11/25) Huge upset vs JMU, box score L but 2 Def TOs
(11/8) Run D bad vs C.Car, 3 TO's hurt. QB Aguilar 2 INT
(11/3) Pass D torched by ODU, Aguilar good, forced 4 TOs
(10/22) Def stop rate 42% (#127) into week 9
(10/12) OG'd ULL but 5 TO's, QB/Rgame OK, Def meh
(9/23) Clark & staff better improve, feels stale/bad
(9/23) Missed 26 tackles! vs S Al
(9/19) This Off looks broken. Rgame awful, Aguilar erratic
(9/12) D not P5 ready, 712 yds to Clem. QB Aguilar ?
(7/30) QB Aguilar v good, WRs all back, lost RB to Mizzu.
App State Injury Report

Old Dominion on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	ODU Off	APP Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#126	#92
SuccessSuc	#109	#76
ExplosiveExp	#9	#70
PPAPPA	#102	#79
PowerPwr	#34	#121
SP+SP+	#78	#110
Pts POPPO	#117	#17
HavocHav	#122	#26

Old Dominion Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	ODU Off	APP Def
Run GameRun	#10	#88
Run SuccessRSuc	#92	#93
Run ExplRExp	#4	#113
PPAExp	#58	#112
Run BlockR Blk	#124	-
OL YdsOLY	#76	#120
Stuff RateStuff	#105	#95
TackleTak	-	#86

Old Dominion Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	ODU Off	APP Def
Pass GamePass	#134	#109
Pass SuccessPSuc	#107	#58
Pass ExplPExl	#39	#36
PPAExp	#112	#30
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#134	#34
F7 HavocF7	#131	#40
DB HavocDB	#37	#29

App State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	ODU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#70	#82
SuccessSuc	#28	#100
ExplosiveExp	#64	#4
PPAPPA	#41	#30
PowerPwr	#50	#66
SP+SP+	#67	#99
Pts POPPO	#77	#46
HavocHav	#73	#56

App State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	ODU Def
Run GameRun	#48	#34
Run SuccessRSuc	#75	#60
Run ExplRExp	#83	#2
PPAExp	#99	#11
Run BlockR Blk	#54	-
OL YdsOLY	#55	#22
Stuff RateStuff	#56	#42
TackleTak	-	#120

App State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	ODU Def
Pass GamePass	#95	#99
Pass SuccessPSuc	#11	#124
Pass ExplPExl	#65	#39
PPAExp	#19	#93
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#96	#128
F7 HavocF7	#49	#56
DB HavocDB	#108	#70

Program Comparison
APP 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

ODU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kidd Brewer Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Old Dominion 2.5 (58.0)
App State won vs Old Dominion this year (28-20)

Previous Matchups
Old Dominion beat App State last year (24-21)
App State beat Old Dominion in 2024 (28-20)
Old Dominion beat App State in 2023 (28-21)

ODU's OC Kevin Decker (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Colton Joseph	133	222	60%	1623	11	5	7.3
Grant Wilson	48	86	56%	507	4	3	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Aaron Young (Tr)	149	768	6	5.2	51
Colton Joseph	114	647	11	5.7	39
Bryce Duke (Tr)	46	285	0	6.2	48
Quinn Henicle	34	278	3	8.2	92

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isiah Paige	61	814	3	13.3	72
Pat Conroy (Tr)	37	523	5	14.1	75
Diante Vines (Tr)	36	393	2	10.9	40
Myles Alston	23	246	0	10.7	30

View Old Dominion's Full Roster

ODU's DC Blake Seiler (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Koa Naotala	87	5	4	5	1
Jahron Manning	85	6	1	0	3
Mario Thompson	66	10	5	5	1
Jahleel Culbreath	62	8	0	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mario Thompson	66	10	5	5	1
Koa Naotala	87	5	4	5	1
Kris Trinidad	44	10	4	5	3
Jeremy Mack Jr.	22	4	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Rasheed Reason	50	2	0	4
Dywan Griffin	4	0	0	3
Jahron Manning	85	6	1	3

APP's OC Frank Ponce (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Aguilar	218	390	56%	3002	23	14	7.7
Kaedin Robinson	0	1	0%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ahmani Marshall	149	713	7	4.8	29
Kanye Roberts	82	332	1	4.0	18
Anderson Castle	50	246	1	4.9	21
Joey Aguilar	58	217	2	3.7	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaedin Robinson	53	840	2	15.8	50
Makai Jackson	46	745	5	16.2	64
Christan Horn	19	367	1	19.3	83
Dalton Stroman	20	307	5	15.4	47

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC Scott Sloan (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Brendan Harrington	55	1	1	1
Kyle Arnholt	54	2	2	0
DJ Burks	52	3	0	0
Jason Chambers (Tr)	37	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Thomas Davis	35	6	4	1
Santana Hopper	30	8	4	0
Michael Fletcher	16	4	4	6
Joshua Donald (Tr)	31	6	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jordan Favors	33	1	0	4
Ethan Johnson	22	0	1	2
Brendan Harrington	55	1	1	1