App State at Louisiana - 2024 Matchup Preview

App State Mountaineers at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Louisiana -10 (64.0) (-355) Open: -6.0
Louisiana 34 - App State: 24 (Sun Belt)

Mountaineers (5 - 6) (3 - 7 - 1)
Coach Shawn Clark (35 - 18)
Avg Score : 27 - 33 (24 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 6 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

APP 2nd straight Road Game
ULL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Louisiana -13 (SP+ ULL -13)
Projected Score: APP: 26 - ULL: 39 (64)
ULL Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
APP Travel: 727 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Ragin' Cajuns (10 - 4) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Michael Desormeaux (13 - 14)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (34 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 4 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
APP Players
ULL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

App State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	App State vs East Tennessee State	-35.5	58.5	W 38 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	App State at Clemson	+13.5	53.5	L 20 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/14	App State at East Carolina	+0.5	56.5	W 21 - 19	U	Y
Thu 9/19	App State vs South Alabama	-8.0	62.5	L 14 - 48	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	App State at Marshall	+3.0	56.5	L 37 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/12	App State at Louisiana	+10.0	64.0	L 24 - 34	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	App State vs Georgia State	-7.5	59.0	W 33 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/2	App State vs Old Dominion	+2.5	58.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Thu 11/7	App State at Coastal Carolina	-1.5	62.5	L 24 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	App State vs James Madison	+7.5	57.5	W 34 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/30	App State at Georgia Southern	+2.5	60.5	L 20 - 29	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for App State's Schedule

Louisiana's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Louisiana vs Grambling	-26
Sat 9/7	Louisiana at Kennesaw State	-14.5	46.5	W 34 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Louisiana vs Tulane	+1.5	53.5	L 33 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/28	Louisiana at Wake Forest	+3.0	59.5	W 41 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Louisiana at Southern Miss	-17.5	57.5	W 23 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/12	Louisiana vs App State	-10.0	64.0	W 34 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/19	Louisiana at Coastal Carolina	-6.0	57.0	W 34 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29	Louisiana at Texas State	+4.0	60.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Louisiana vs Arkansas State	-14.0	60.0	W 55 - 19	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Louisiana vs South Alabama	-6.5	60.0	L 22 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/23	Louisiana vs Troy	-7.5	51.5	W 51 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Louisiana at UL Monroe	-8.5	50.5	W 37 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Louisiana vs Marshall	-5.0	58.0	L 3 - 31	U	N
Sat 12/28	Louisiana vs TCU	+9.5	61.0	L 3 - 34	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	#57 (.21)	44% (60)	26.6	45% (58)	3.01 (75)	157	43% (62)	273	3.89 (71)	#123 (.3)	49% (127)	32.9	51% (130)	47% (119)	4.78 (132)	57	2	1.2
ULL	#16 (.3)	45% (47)	30.9	42% (91)	3.24 (35)	159	47% (17)	242	4.27 (32)	#97 (.22)	48% (126)	24.1	53% (133)	44% (105)	4.43 (121)	44.5	0.6	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	#57 (.21)	44% (60)		45% (58)	3.01 (75)	157	43% (62)	273	3.89 (71)	#123 (.3)	49% (127)		51% (130)	47% (119)	4.78 (132)	57	2	1.2
ULL	#16 (.3)	45% (47)		42% (91)	3.24 (35)	159	47% (17)	242	4.27 (32)	#97 (.22)	48% (126)		53% (133)	44% (105)	4.43 (121)	44.5	0.6	1.4

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Offense	11	26.6	24.3	43.6%	3.89	2	24	430	157	273	4.5	48%	51%	45%	43%	16%	.21
ULL Defense	14	24.1	25.6	48.4%	4.43	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	53%	44%	13%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Defense	11	32.9	39.7	49%	4.78	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	51%	47%	12%	.3
ULL Offense	14	30.9	34	44.5%	4.27	0.6	20	401	159	242	5	53%	47%	42%	47%	11%	.3

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
App State	11	30:06	23.9	43%	59%	6	57	2	1.2	4.3	2.1	1	27.6
Louisiana	14	29:12	19.7	43%	64%	5.4	44.5	0.6	1.4	3.9	1.5	2	28.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Offense	11	48% (81)	45% (58)	34.9	157.4	4.5	13 (105)	.1 (89)	3.01 (75)	80% (21)	7% (15)	0.89 (104)
ULL Defense	14	50% (61)	53% (133)	-	-	-	-	.24 (121)	3.36 (118)	82% (116)	7% (125)	0.87 (18)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Defense	11	56% (124)	51% (130)	-	-	-	-	.26 (128)	3.41 (125)	77% (94)	9% (89)	1.04 (94)
ULL Offense	14	53% (52)	42% (91)	31.6	158.9	5	26 (36)	.2 (33)	3.24 (35)	76% (44)	6% (6)	1.07 (31)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Offense	11	51% (53)	43% (62)	19.8	35.6	272.9	7.7	13.8	23 (41)	16 (124)	.32 (41)	1.8 (13)	35% (122)	37% (15)	.46 (19)	9% (130)	2.2 (18)
ULL Defense	14	50% (77)	44% (105)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.21 (53)	1.4 (11)	28% (121)	34% (108)	.33 (84)	5% (97)	1.9 (33)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Defense	11	44% (10)	47% (119)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.37 (119)	1.5 (46)	26% (133)	35% (115)	.38 (100)	2% (134)	2 (62)
ULL Offense	14	47% (80)	47% (17)	18.4	27.5	241.9	8.8	13.1	22 (46)	7 (26)	.41 (10)	1.6 (50)	28% (17)	29% (97)	.39 (48)	5% (29)	2.3 (9)

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: -8.96 #97
App State's Offense Rating: 21.99 #50
App State's Defense Rating: 17.06 #121
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
App State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 6.0
App State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.1 #100
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #110

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
App State: -8.96 Louisiana: 4.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
App State: -8.1 Louisiana: 4.8

Louisiana's Power Ratings
Louisiana's Power Rating: 4.64 #67
Louisiana's Offense Rating: 26.51 #11
Louisiana's Defense Rating: 14.25 #103
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Louisiana's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 4.0
Louisiana's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8 #53
Louisiana's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
Louisiana's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #78

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

App State Scoring
Offense: 26.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.3
Defense: 32.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.7

App State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 6
Record vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 2 - 9
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Louisiana 39
App State 26

Total Points: 64

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisiana 39
App State 29

Total Points: 68

Based on Entire Season
Louisiana 34
App State 25

Total Points: 59

Louisiana Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.6

Louisiana's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/12	Louisiana	34	App State	24	Louisiana -10	Push	64.0	Under
2021	10/12	Louisiana	41	App State	13	Appalachian State -4.5	Louisiana	57.5	Under
2021	12/04	Louisiana	24	App State	16	Appalachian State -2.5	Louisiana	52.5	Under
2020	12/04	App State	21	Louisiana	24	Appalachian State -3	Louisiana	51.0	Under
2019	10/09	Louisiana	7	App State	17	Louisiana -2.5	App State	69.5	Under
2019	12/07	App State	45	Louisiana	38	Appalachian State -6.0	App State	57.5	Over
2018	12/01	App State	30	Louisiana	19	Appalachian State -17.5	Louisiana	54.0	Under
2018	10/20	App State	27	Louisiana	17	Appalachian State -25	Louisiana	65.0	Under
2017	12/02	App State	63	Louisiana	14	Appalachian State -14	App State	58.0	Over
2016	10/12	Louisiana	0	App State	24	Appalachian State -10.5	App State	50.0	Under
2015	11/28	App State	28	Louisiana	7	Appalachian State -22	Louisiana	59.0	Under
2014	11/22	Louisiana	16	App State	35	Louisiana -8	App State	62.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisiana	4	6	2 Overs
App State	8	5	10 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 4	4 - 7	2 - 6	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 8	7 - 4	1 - 2	6 - 2

(#97) APP at (#67) ULL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	APP	ULL
Power RatePwr	#97	#67
SP+SP+	#100	#53
Perf GradeGrade	#84	#32
OffenseOff	#70	#14
DefenseDef	#92	#87
Spec TeamsST	#69	#131
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

App State Notes(12/10) Hired HC Loggains (OC/QB S Car 23-24)
(12/2) HC Clark fired after 40-24 in 5 yrs, Huff rumors?
(11/25) Huge upset vs JMU, box score L but 2 Def TOs
(11/8) Run D bad vs C.Car, 3 TO's hurt. QB Aguilar 2 INT
(11/3) Pass D torched by ODU, Aguilar good, forced 4 TOs
(10/22) Def stop rate 42% (#127) into week 9
(10/12) OG'd ULL but 5 TO's, QB/Rgame OK, Def meh
(9/23) Clark & staff better improve, feels stale/bad
(9/23) Missed 26 tackles! vs S Al
(9/19) This Off looks broken. Rgame awful, Aguilar erratic
(9/12) D not P5 ready, 712 yds to Clem. QB Aguilar ?
(7/30) QB Aguilar v good, WRs all back, lost RB to Mizzu.
App State Injury Report

Louisiana Notes(12/1) Rgame good 225/5.4, Fields meh, D good in ULM W
(11/25) Beat Troy, beat ULM=likely in SBC title game
(11/20) QB Wooldridge out for the season, Fields in
(11/18) Awful perf vs S Al, down 20-6 into 4th.
(11/3) Big W @ Tx St, QB good, Rgame good, Def great
(11/3) Only undefeated SBC team left after Tex St W
(10/20) Off 500+ yds, Wooldridge great vs Coastal
(10/12) OG's by App St but forced 5 TOs, Rgame decent
(9/28) Outgained Tul but 2 TOs, 2-9 3rd down cost game
(9/28) Even w/ Wake, Rgame 209 yds, QB good again
(9/25) QB Wooldridge decent, Run Def extremely bad
(7/30) 3rd year for HC, what is ULL post Napier?
Louisiana Injury Report

App State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	ULL Def
Perf GradePerf	#70	#87
SuccessSuc	#60	#126
ExplosiveExp	#28	#7
PPAPPA	#57	#97
PowerPwr	#50	#103
SP+SP+	#67	#78
Pts POPPO	#71	#121
HavocHav	#66	#121

App State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	ULL Def
Run GameRun	#48	#111
Run SuccessRSuc	#58	#133
Run ExplRExp	#104	#18
PPAExp	#89	#121
Run BlockR Blk	#54	-
OL YdsOLY	#75	#118
Stuff RateStuff	#87	#107
TackleTak	-	#126

App State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	APP Off	ULL Def
Pass GamePass	#95	#28
Pass SuccessPSuc	#62	#105
Pass ExplPExl	#13	#11
PPAExp	#41	#53
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#96	#119
F7 HavocF7	#15	#125
DB HavocDB	#130	#97

Louisiana on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ULL Off	APP Def
Perf GradePerf	#14	#92
SuccessSuc	#47	#127
ExplosiveExp	#25	#53
PPAPPA	#16	#123
PowerPwr	#11	#121
SP+SP+	#38	#110
Pts POPPO	#32	#132
HavocHav	#10	#132

Louisiana Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ULL Off	APP Def
Run GameRun	#60	#88
Run SuccessRSuc	#91	#130
Run ExplRExp	#31	#94
PPAExp	#33	#128
Run BlockR Blk	#25	-
OL YdsOLY	#35	#125
Stuff RateStuff	#50	#113
TackleTak	-	#86

Louisiana Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ULL Off	APP Def
Pass GamePass	#7	#109
Pass SuccessPSuc	#17	#119
Pass ExplPExl	#50	#46
PPAExp	#10	#119
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#40	#34
F7 HavocF7	#6	#89
DB HavocDB	#29	#134

Program Comparison
ULL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

APP 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Cajun Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Louisiana -10.0 (64.0)
Louisiana won vs App State this year (34-24)

Previous Matchups
Louisiana beat App State last year (34-24)

APP's OC Frank Ponce (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Aguilar	218	390	56%	3002	23	14	7.7
Kaedin Robinson	0	1	0%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ahmani Marshall	149	713	7	4.8	29
Kanye Roberts	82	332	1	4.0	18
Anderson Castle	50	246	1	4.9	21
Joey Aguilar	58	217	2	3.7	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaedin Robinson	53	840	2	15.8	50
Makai Jackson	46	745	5	16.2	64
Christan Horn	19	367	1	19.3	83
Dalton Stroman	20	307	5	15.4	47

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC Scott Sloan (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Brendan Harrington	55	1	1	1
Kyle Arnholt	54	2	2	0
DJ Burks	52	3	0	0
Jason Chambers (Tr)	37	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Thomas Davis	35	6	4	1
Santana Hopper	30	8	4	0
Michael Fletcher	16	4	4	6
Joshua Donald (Tr)	31	6	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jordan Favors	33	1	0	4
Ethan Johnson	22	0	1	2
Brendan Harrington	55	1	1	1

ULL's OC Tim Leger (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ben Wooldridge	192	291	66%	2453	17	6	8.4
Chandler Fields	63	87	72%	897	5	1	10.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bill Davis	163	796	9	4.9	73
Zylan Perry	112	695	4	6.2	30
Dre'Lyn Washington	73	478	5	6.5	64
Ben Wooldridge	65	174	5	2.7	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lance LeGendre	49	826	6	16.9	48
Terrance Carter	48	689	4	14.4	74
Harvey Broussard	31	486	3	15.7	50
Jacob Bernard	28	375	0	13.4	52

View Louisiana's Full Roster

ULL's DC Jim Salgado (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
K.C. Ossai	115	3	1	3	3
Tyrone Lewis	76	3	1	0	2
Carmycah Glass (Tr)	75	4	1	3	0
Keyon Martin	56	2	0	2	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cameron Whitfield	36	7	6	3	1
Jordan Lawson	44	11	6	5	1
Mason Narcisse	37	6	4	1	0
Antoine Baylis	22	4	2	1	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antoine Baylis	22	4	2	1	6
Keyon Martin	56	2	0	2	6
Justin Agu	36	2	0	0	4