Boise State at Colorado State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (9:45 PM EDT)
Boise State -7.5 (60.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Colorado State 31 - Boise State: 30 (Mountain West)

Broncos (8 - 6) (7 - 5 - 2)
Coach Andy Avalos (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (20 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 4.9 (#25)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CSU is playing their 5th straight game
BSU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -10 (SP+ BSU -16.5)
Projected Score: BSU: 32 - CSU: 22 (54)
BSU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
BSU Travel: 606 miles

Rams (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (3 - 11)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (20 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#63)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BSU Players
CSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boise State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Boise State at Washington	+14.0	59.0	L 19 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/9	Boise State vs UCF	+3.0	58.5	L 16 - 18	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Boise State vs North Dakota	-15.0	58.0	W 42 - 18	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Boise State at San Diego State	-6.5	46.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	Boise State at Memphis	+3.0	58.0	L 32 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Boise State vs San José State	-8.0	57.5	W 35 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/14	Boise State at Colorado State	-7.5	60.0	L 30 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Boise State vs Wyoming	-4.5	48.5	W 32 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Boise State at Fresno State	+2.5	53.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/11	Boise State vs New Mexico	-27.5	58.5	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Boise State at Utah State	-5.5	62.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Boise State vs Air Force	-6.5	44.5	W 27 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Boise State at UNLV	-2.5	58.0	W 44 - 20	O	Y
Sat 12/16	Boise State vs UCLA	+6.5	46.0	L 22 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Colorado State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Colorado State vs Washington State	+9.5	54.0	L 24 - 50	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16	Colorado State at Colorado	+23.0	63.0	L 35 - 43	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Colorado State at Middle Tennessee	+3.5	50.0	W 31 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Colorado State vs Utah Tech	-19
Sat 10/7	Colorado State at Utah State	-3.0	62.0	L 24 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/14	Colorado State vs Boise State	+7.5	60.0	W 31 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Colorado State at UNLV	+6.5	60.0	L 23 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Colorado State vs Air Force	+14.5	47.0	L 13 - 30	U	N
Fri 11/3	Colorado State at Wyoming	+6.0	41.0	L 15 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	Colorado State vs San Diego State	-3.5	46.5	W 22 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/18	Colorado State vs Nevada	-12.5	45.5	W 30 - 20	O	N
Sat 11/25	Colorado State at Hawai'i	-6.0	54.0	L 24 - 27	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	.23	43%	29.9	46%	3.34	197	39%	189	4.07	.09	35%	24.1	39%	30%	3.38	47.4	1.2	1.5
CSU	.05	34%	18.5	36%	2.91	89	32%	197	1.96	.16	43%	30.8	44%	43%	4.24	60.4	1.6	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Offense	14	29.9	19.8	42.9%	4.07	1.2	20	386	197	189	5	56%	44%	46%	39%	16%	.23
CSU Defense	12	30.8	27.1	43.1%	4.24	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	44%	43%	17%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Defense	14	24.1	23.8	34.6%	3.38	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	39%	30%	18%	.09
CSU Offense	12	18.5	19.9	33.7%	1.96	1.6	15	286	89	197	2.8	46%	54%	36%	32%	24%	.05

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boise State	14	30:50	19.5	40%	59%	5.6	47.4	1.2	1.5	5.1	2.1	2	31.2
Colorado State	12	29:28	14.7	23%	39%	6.9	60.4	1.6	1.7	5.4	1.8	2	28.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Offense	14	56%	46%	39.2	196.5	5	27	.2	3.34	76%	9%	0.97
CSU Defense	12	52%	44%	-	-	-	-	.15	3.1	77%	10%	1.02

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Defense	14	56%	39%	-	-	-	-	.11	2.93	76%	12%	0.94
CSU Offense	12	46%	36%	32.1	89	2.8	4	.04	2.91	61%	18%	1.01

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Offense	14	44%	39%	16.4	27.5	189.2	6.9	11.6	20	9	.32	1.7	31%	32%	.45	7%	2.2
CSU Defense	12	47%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.22	1.4	31%	30%	.25	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Defense	14	43%	30%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.12	1.9	35%	19%	.09	6%	2.3
CSU Offense	12	54%	32%	16.9	26.8	196.8	7.3	11.6	12	11	.08	1.8	39%	23%	.21	6%	2.4

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 4.57 #37
Boise State's Offense Rating: 21.76 #28
Boise State's Defense Rating: 8.84 #58
2023 Talent Rating: 579.88 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Boise State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.10 - 4.90
Boise State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #41
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #29
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 4.57 Colorado State: -3.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 7.4 Colorado State: -9.1

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -3.77 #83
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 15.50 #78
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.05 #62
2023 Talent Rating: 413.96 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Colorado State's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 5.30
Colorado State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.1 #99
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #93
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #101

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

Boise State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 2
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 32
Colorado State 22

Projected Total Points: 54

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.9
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.1

Colorado State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Boise State	49	Colorado State	21	Boise State -17.5	Boise State	46.5	Over
2023	10/14	Colorado State	31	Boise State	30	Boise State -7.5	Colorado State	60.0	Over
2022	10/29	Boise State	49	Colorado State	10	Boise State -25	Boise State	42.5	Over
2021	10/30	Colorado State	19	Boise State	28	Boise State -2	Boise State	51.5	Under
2020	11/12	Boise State	52	Colorado State	21	Boise State -14.5	Boise State	62.0	Over
2019	11/29	Colorado State	24	Boise State	31	Boise State -13.5	Colorado State	56.5	Under
2018	10/19	Boise State	56	Colorado State	28	Boise State -24	Boise State	63.5	Over
2017	11/11	Colorado State	52	Boise State	59	Boise State -6.5	Boise State	59.0	Over
2016	10/15	Boise State	28	Colorado State	23	Boise State -25.5	Colorado State	59.5	Under
2015	10/10	Colorado State	10	Boise State	41	Boise State -12	Boise State	60.0	Under
2014	09/06	Boise State	37	Colorado State	24	Boise State -8	Boise State	0
2013	11/02	Colorado State	30	Boise State	42	Boise State -10	Boise State	0
2012	11/17	Boise State	42	Colorado State	14
2011	10/15	Colorado State	13	Boise State	63

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Colorado State	1	3	6 Overs
Boise State	13	9	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 6	7 - 5	5 - 1	2 - 4
Road Teams	6 - 8	5 - 7	4 - 2	1 - 5

(#37) BSU at (#83) CSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BSU	CSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#37	#83
SP+SP+	#41	#99
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#84
OffenseOff	#26	#84
DefenseDef	#111	#78
Spec TeamsST	#64	#114
TalentTal	#72	#108
Blue ChipsBC%	#69	#75

Boise State Injury Report

Colorado State Injury Report

Boise State on Offense


CategoryCat	BSU Off	CSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#26	#78
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#28	#62
SP+SP+	#29	#101
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Boise State Run Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	CSU Def
Run GameRun	#3	#99
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#58

Boise State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	CSU Def
Pass GamePass	#95	#72
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#77	#23
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Colorado State on Offense


CategoryCat	CSU Off	BSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#84	#111
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#78	#58
SP+SP+	#93	#70
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Colorado State Run Game


CategoryCat	CSU Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#129	#113
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#130

Colorado State Pass Game


CategoryCat	CSU Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#101	#94
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#59	#109
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
CSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

BSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Boise State 7.5 (60.0)
Colorado State won vs Boise State this year (31-30)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Colorado State last year (49-21)
Colorado State beat Boise State in 2023 (31-30)

BSU's OC Bush Hamdan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taylen Green	121	212	57%	1752	11	9	8.3
Maddux Madsen	81	132	61%	1191	9	3	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashton Jeanty	221	1351	14	6.1	68
George Holani	133	744	7	5.6	75
Taylen Green	78	436	9	5.6	70
Jambres Dubar	62	335	2	5.4	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eric McAlister	47	873	5	18.6	83
Ashton Jeanty	43	569	5	13.2	75
Billy Bowens	28	383	1	13.7	52
Prince Strachan	12	274	2	22.8	74

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Spencer Danielson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alexander Teubner	79	3	0	0	5
Andrew Simpson	65	16	7	5	2
Seyi Oladipo	60	9	2	1	4
Rodney Robinson	54	2	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ahmed Hassanein	50	17	13	7	0
Andrew Simpson	65	16	7	5	2
Ty Benefield	43	5	3	3	5
Braxton Fely	15	5	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Clark	52	2	0	1	8
Alexander Teubner	79	3	0	0	5
Ty Benefield	43	5	3	3	5

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi	292	470	62%	3460	22	16	7.4
Clay Millen	15	24	63%	110	0	1	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Vann Schield	90	389	3	4.3	52
Justin Marshall	57	311	2	5.5	21
Avery Morrow	81	262	2	3.2	13
Kobe Johnson	44	128	1	2.9	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tory Horton	96	1136	8	11.8	76
Dallin Holker (Tr)	64	767	6	12.0	42
Justus Ross-Simmons	45	724	3	16.1	75
Louis Brown	47	481	5	10.2	46

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Freddie Banks (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Howell	114	1	0	3	3
Chase Wilson	107	9	4	1	3
Justin Sanchez	87	4	1	2	3
Henry Blackburn	75	7	3	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mohamed Kamara	55	16	12	10	1
Marshon Oxley	26	6	4	1	0
Chase Wilson	107	9	4	1	3
Tony Pierce Jr.	31	5	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Howell	114	1	0	3	3
Dom Jones	32	0	0	0	3
Justin Sanchez	87	4	1	2	3