Boise State at Memphis - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
Memphis -3 (58.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Memphis 35 - Boise State: 32

Broncos (8 - 6) (7 - 5 - 2)
Coach Andy Avalos (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 26 (33 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 4.9 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 92.1° (37% Hum)
BSU 2nd straight Road Game
MEM is playing their 5th straight game
BSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Memphis -0 (SP+ BSU -4.5)
Projected Score: BSU: 30 - MEM: 30 (60)
MEM Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
BSU Travel: 1510 miles, 1 hrs behind

Tigers (10 - 3) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 39 - 29 (39 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 3.9 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BSU Players
MEM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boise State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Boise State at Washington	+14.0	59.0	L 19 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/9	Boise State vs UCF	+3.0	58.5	L 16 - 18	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Boise State vs North Dakota	-15.0	58.0	W 42 - 18	O	Y
Fri 9/22	Boise State at San Diego State	-6.5	46.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	Boise State at Memphis	+3.0	58.0	L 32 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Boise State vs San José State	-8.0	57.5	W 35 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/14	Boise State at Colorado State	-7.5	60.0	L 30 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Boise State vs Wyoming	-4.5	48.5	W 32 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Boise State at Fresno State	+2.5	53.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/11	Boise State vs New Mexico	-27.5	58.5	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Boise State at Utah State	-5.5	62.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Boise State vs Air Force	-6.5	44.5	W 27 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Boise State at UNLV	-2.5	58.0	W 44 - 20	O	Y
Sat 12/16	Boise State vs UCLA	+6.5	46.0	L 22 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Memphis's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Memphis vs Bethune-Cookman	-49.0	59.5	W 56 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/9	Memphis at Arkansas State	-21.0	57.0	W 37 - 3	U	Y
Thu 9/14	Memphis vs Navy	-12.5	47.0	W 28 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/23	Memphis vs Missouri	+6.5	52.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/30	Memphis vs Boise State	-3.0	58.0	W 35 - 32	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/13	Memphis vs Tulane	+4.5	54.5	L 21 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/21	Memphis at UAB	-7.5	61.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Memphis at North Texas	-6.5	70.0	W 45 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/4	Memphis vs South Florida	-13.5	68.5	W 59 - 50	O	N
Sat 11/11	Memphis at Charlotte	-9.5	51.5	W 44 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/18	Memphis vs SMU	+9.5	64.5	L 34 - 38	O	Y
Fri 11/24	Memphis at Temple	-13.5	63.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Memphis at Iowa State	+10.5	58.0	W 36 - 26	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#19 (.3)	47% (21)	32.1	51% (10)	3.46 (9)	215	42% (69)	221	4.2 (38)	#90 (.22)	41% (59)	25.6	44% (79)	40% (42)	4.04 (90)	32	1.5	1.4
MEM	#18 (.3)	47% (23)	39.4	47% (33)	2.96 (98)	152	47% (22)	306	4.6 (16)	#82 (.2)	44% (90)	28.8	44% (82)	44% (103)	4.12 (99)	41.2	1.2	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)		49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)		39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1
MEM	#23 (.27)	44% (57)		46% (40)	3.27 (31)	175	41% (71)	270	4.66 (14)	#87 (.19)	40% (47)		40% (45)	40% (62)	4.05 (96)	48	0.6	1.9

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Offense	14	32.1	33.4	46.6%	4.2	1.5	21	436	215	221	5.4	57%	42%	51%	42%	14%	.3
MEM Defense	13	28.8	31.5	43.7%	4.12	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	44%	44%	16%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Defense	14	25.6	31.4	41.3%	4.04	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	40%	17%	.22
MEM Offense	13	39.4	38.8	46.6%	4.6	1.2	23	458	152	306	4.6	43%	57%	47%	47%	13%	.3

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boise State	14	31:11	21.4	46%	82%	3.7	32	1.5	1.4	5.9	2.5	0	29.4
Memphis	13	31:08	22.7	45%	64%	4.1	41.2	1.2	1.5	5.1	1.6	3	31.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Offense	14	57% (19)	51% (10)	40	214.9	5.4	34 (7)	.3 (6)	3.46 (9)	84% (6)	8% (34)	1.07 (31)
MEM Defense	13	49% (56)	44% (82)	-	-	-	-	.17 (92)	2.98 (46)	62% (15)	9% (92)	1.08 (105)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Defense	14	46% (24)	44% (79)	-	-	-	-	.19 (95)	3.08 (59)	66% (29)	11% (34)	1.09 (108)
MEM Offense	13	43% (111)	47% (33)	33	152	4.6	31 (17)	.17 (57)	2.96 (98)	66% (117)	8% (25)	1.03 (52)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Offense	14	42% (117)	42% (69)	15.4	26.6	221.3	8.3	14.3	20 (70)	13 (97)	.38 (29)	1.8 (12)	29% (16)	34% (38)	.38 (56)	6% (66)	2.1 (57)
MEM Defense	13	50% (78)	44% (103)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.28 (75)	1.7 (88)	30% (112)	32% (93)	.3 (65)	7% (38)	2.2 (99)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Defense	14	53% (112)	40% (42)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.28 (72)	1.7 (91)	33% (48)	32% (91)	.37 (95)	6% (72)	2.1 (80)
MEM Offense	13	57% (19)	47% (22)	24.7	37	306.5	8.3	12.4	33 (11)	10 (56)	.42 (22)	1.6 (50)	27% (8)	39% (7)	.62 (5)	6% (49)	2.2 (23)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 4.57 #37
Boise State's Offense Rating: 21.76 #28
Boise State's Defense Rating: 8.84 #58
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Boise State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.10 - 4.90
Boise State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #41
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #29
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 4.57 Memphis: 6.22

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 7.4 Memphis: 2.8

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 6.22 #36
Memphis's Offense Rating: 22.45 #24
Memphis's Defense Rating: 9.91 #71
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #63
Memphis's 2023 Expected Record: 9.10 - 3.90
Memphis's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #57
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #14
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #112

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 32.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.4
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.4

Boise State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 2
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 30
Memphis 30

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Memphis 29
Boise State 27

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Memphis 34
Boise State 32

Total Points: 66

Memphis Scoring
Offense: 39.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.5

Memphis's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 11 - 2
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/30	Memphis	35	Boise State	32	Memphis -3	Push	58.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Memphis	1	0	1 Overs
Boise State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#37) BSU at (#36) MEM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BSU	MEM
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#37	#36
SP+SP+	#41	#57
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#41
OffenseOff	#26	#22
DefenseDef	#111	#97
Spec TeamsST	#64	#103
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#69	#63

Boise State Injury Report

Memphis Injury Report

Boise State on Offense


CategoryCat	BSU Off	MEM Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#26	#97
SuccessSuc	#21	#90
ExplosiveExp	#32	#108
PPAPPA	#19	#82
PowerPwr	#28	#71
SP+SP+	#29	#112
Pts POPPO	#38	#99
HavocHav	#40	#66

Boise State Run Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	MEM Def
Run GameRun	#3	#88
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#82
Run ExplRExp	#31	#105
PPAExp	#6	#92
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	#9	#46
Stuff RateStuff	#48	#24
TackleTak	-	#134

Boise State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	MEM Def
Pass GamePass	#95	#105
Pass SuccessPSuc	#69	#103
Pass ExplPExl	#12	#88
PPAExp	#29	#75
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#77	#74
F7 HavocF7	#34	#92
DB HavocDB	#66	#38

Memphis on Offense


CategoryCat	MEM Off	BSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#22	#111
SuccessSuc	#23	#59
ExplosiveExp	#18	#111
PPAPPA	#18	#90
PowerPwr	#24	#58
SP+SP+	#14	#70
Pts POPPO	#16	#90
HavocHav	#23	#45

Memphis Run Game


CategoryCat	MEM Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#82	#113
Run SuccessRSuc	#33	#79
Run ExplRExp	#52	#108
PPAExp	#57	#95
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	#98	#59
Stuff RateStuff	#93	#48
TackleTak	-	#130

Memphis Pass Game


CategoryCat	MEM Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#15	#94
Pass SuccessPSuc	#22	#42
Pass ExplPExl	#50	#91
PPAExp	#22	#72
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#18	#109
F7 HavocF7	#25	#34
DB HavocDB	#49	#72

Program Comparison
MEM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

BSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 92°

Rematch from Week 5
Memphis -3.0 (58.0)
Memphis won vs Boise State this year (35-32)

Previous Matchups
Memphis beat Boise State in 2023 (35-32)

BSU's OC Bush Hamdan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taylen Green	121	212	57%	1752	11	9	8.3
Maddux Madsen	81	132	61%	1191	9	3	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashton Jeanty	221	1351	14	6.1	68
George Holani	133	744	7	5.6	75
Taylen Green	78	436	9	5.6	70
Jambres Dubar	62	335	2	5.4	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eric McAlister	47	873	5	18.6	83
Ashton Jeanty	43	569	5	13.2	75
Billy Bowens	28	383	1	13.7	52
Prince Strachan	12	274	2	22.8	74

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Spencer Danielson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alexander Teubner	79	3	0	0	5
Andrew Simpson	65	16	7	5	2
Seyi Oladipo	60	9	2	1	4
Rodney Robinson	54	2	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ahmed Hassanein	50	17	13	7	0
Andrew Simpson	65	16	7	5	2
Ty Benefield	43	5	3	3	5
Braxton Fely	15	5	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Clark	52	2	0	1	8
Alexander Teubner	79	3	0	0	5
Ty Benefield	43	5	3	3	5

MEM's OC Tim Cramsey (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Seth Henigan	318	476	67%	3883	32	9	8.2
Tevin Carter	3	5	60%	101	1	1	20.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Watson (Tr)	192	1152	14	6.0	69
Sutton Smith	63	305	2	4.8	26
Seth Henigan	94	274	5	2.9	24
Brandon Thomas	46	172	9	3.7	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roc Taylor	69	1083	4	15.7	85
DeMeer Blankumsee (Tr)	53	901	7	17.0	70
Blake Watson (Tr)	53	485	3	9.2	63
Joseph Scates	33	414	6	12.5	54

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Matt Barnes (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Martin (Tr)	94	17	3	3	2
Geoff Cantin-Arku	79	5	1	1	2
Simeon Blair (Tr)	63	5	0	2	5
Cameron Smith	57	0	0	2	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Martin (Tr)	94	17	3	3	2
Gregory Rubin	52	3	3	1	3
Keveionta Spears	17	4	2	1	1
Jaylon Allen	41	7	2	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
DeAgo Brumfeld	42	3	1	10
Cameron Smith	57	0	2	6
Simeon Blair (Tr)	63	5	2	5