Rice at South Florida - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
Rice -2.5 (56.5) (0) Open: 0.0
South Florida 42 - Rice: 29 (American Athletic)

Owls (6 - 7) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Bloomgren (18 - 40)
Avg Score : 19 - 33 (14 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USF 3rd straight Home Game
USF is playing their 4th straight game
RICE is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Rice -1.5 (SP+ RICE -1)
Projected Score: RICE: 29 - USF: 28 (57)
RICE Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
RICE Travel: 790 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bulls (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (51 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 7.1 (#76)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
RICE Players
USF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Rice's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Rice at Texas	+35.5	59.0	L 10 - 37	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Rice vs Houston	+7.5	51.0	W 43 - 41	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Rice vs Texas Southern	-35.5	60.0	W 59 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Rice at South Florida	-2.5	56.5	L 29 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/30	Rice vs East Carolina	-3.5	47.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Rice vs UConn	-10.0	47.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/19	Rice at Tulsa	+3.0	56.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Rice vs Tulane	+10.0	55.0	L 28 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Rice vs SMU	+12.0	59.5	L 31 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Rice at UTSA	+13.5	53.5	L 14 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/18	Rice at Charlotte	+0.5	46.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Rice vs Florida Atlantic	-5.0	46.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Tue 12/26	Rice vs Texas State	+3.5	58.5	L 21 - 45	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Rice's Schedule

South Florida's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	South Florida at Western Kentucky	+13.5	71.5	L 24 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/9	South Florida vs Florida A&M	-20.0	63.0	W 38 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	South Florida vs Alabama	+34.0	61.0	L 3 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	South Florida vs Rice	+2.5	56.5	W 42 - 29	O	Y
Sat 9/30	South Florida at Navy	+4.0	54.0	W 44 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/7	South Florida at UAB	-3.5	68.5	L 35 - 56	O	N
Sat 10/14	South Florida vs Florida Atlantic	-3.0	61.0	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 10/21	South Florida at UConn	+1.0	57.0	W 24 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	South Florida at Memphis	+13.5	68.5	L 50 - 59	O	Y
Sat 11/11	South Florida vs Temple	-7.5	70.5	W 27 - 23	U	N
Fri 11/17	South Florida at UTSA	+14.5	65.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/25	South Florida vs Charlotte	-7.5	56.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Thu 12/21	South Florida vs Syracuse	+3.0	56.0	W 45 - 0	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
RICE	.16	42%	19.1	41%	2.99	141	44%	233	3.56	.32	44%	32.9	45%	44%	4.38	53.7	2.5	1.5
USF	.27	44%	40.5	46%	3.54	197	42%	193	4.12	.39	51%	23.4	52%	51%	4.56	36.9	1.7	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
RICE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
RICE Offense	13	19.1	14.2	41.9%	3.56	2.5	20	374	141	233	4	51%	47%	41%	44%	20%	.16
USF Defense	12	23.4	14.3	51.1%	4.56	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	52%	51%	14%	.39

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
RICE Defense	13	32.9	32.6	44.1%	4.38	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	45%	44%	15%	.32
USF Offense	12	40.5	51	44%	4.12	1.7	19	390	197	193	5.3	56%	43%	46%	42%	16%	.27

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Rice	13	32:49	20.1	42%	44%	6.1	53.7	2.5	1.5	4.1	1.5	1	28.1
South Florida	12	29:28	19.3	39%	45%	4.6	36.9	1.7	1.7	5.2	1.2	1	29.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
RICE Offense	13	51%	41%	35.4	141.4	4	17	.15	2.99	83%	11%	1.01
USF Defense	12	54%	52%	-	-	-	-	.41	3.52	70%	10%	1.25

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
RICE Defense	13	49%	45%	-	-	-	-	.28	3.47	67%	9%	1.22
USF Offense	12	56%	46%	36.8	196.8	5.3	25	.33	3.54	79%	11%	1.2

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
RICE Offense	13	47%	44%	17.9	31	232.8	7.5	13	23	20	.23	1.6	33%	32%	.28	9%	2
USF Defense	12	45%	51%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.43	1.5	26%	38%	.5	4%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
RICE Defense	13	50%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.41	1.8	31%	33%	.43	6%	2.3
USF Offense	12	43%	42%	15.7	27.2	192.9	7.1	12.3	18	9	.24	1.6	31%	28%	.33	5%	2.3

Rice's Power Ratings
Rice's Power Rating: 1.12 #57
Rice's Offense Rating: 21.53 #29
Rice's Defense Rating: 10.32 #76
2023 Talent Rating: 466.78 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Rice's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
Rice's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3 #95
Rice's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #63
Rice's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #106

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Rice: 1.12 South Florida: -5.08

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Rice: -8.3 South Florida: -9.5

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: -5.08 #95
South Florida's Offense Rating: 13.60 #94
South Florida's Defense Rating: 11.46 #92
2023 Talent Rating: 622.89 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
South Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 7.10
South Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.5 #102
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #61
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #123

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Rice Scoring
Offense: 19.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 14.2
Defense: 32.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.6

Rice's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Rice 29
South Florida 28

Projected Total Points: 57

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 51
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.3

South Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	South Florida	52	Rice	3	South Florida -28.5	South Florida	57.5	Under
2024	11/30	Rice	35	South Florida	28	South Florida -5.5	Rice	53.5	Over
2023	09/23	South Florida	42	Rice	29	Rice -2.5	South Florida	56.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
South Florida	2	2	2 Overs
Rice	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	3 - 0	1 - 0	2 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 1

(#57) RICE at (#95) USF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	RICE	USF
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#57	#95
SP+SP+	#95	#102
Perf GradeGrade	#91	#102
OffenseOff	#102	#107
DefenseDef	#73	#78
Spec TeamsST	#90	#79
TalentTal	#100	#65
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Rice Injury Report

South Florida Injury Report

Rice on Offense


CategoryCat	RICE Off	USF Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#102	#78
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#29	#92
SP+SP+	#63	#123
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Rice Run Game


CategoryCat	RICE Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#84	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#95	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#111

Rice Pass Game


CategoryCat	RICE Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#109	#103
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#127	#48
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

South Florida on Offense


CategoryCat	USF Off	RICE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#107	#73
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#94	#76
SP+SP+	#61	#106
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

South Florida Run Game


CategoryCat	USF Off	RICE Def
Run GameRun	#57	#94
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#130	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#62

South Florida Pass Game


CategoryCat	USF Off	RICE Def
Pass GamePass	#74	#44
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#93	#89
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
USF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

RICE 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Rice 2.5 (56.5)
South Florida won vs Rice this year (42-29)

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat Rice last year (52-3)
Rice beat South Florida in 2024 (35-28)
South Florida beat Rice in 2023 (42-29)

RICE's OC Marques Tuiasosopo (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
JT Daniels (Tr)	181	287	63%	2443	21	7	8.5
AJ Padgett	71	117	61%	721	8	6	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dean Connors	121	771	7	6.4	57
Juma Otoviano	92	326	4	3.5	24
Luke McCaffrey	15	117	0	7.8	40
Ari Broussard	29	91	0	3.1	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Luke McCaffrey	71	992	13	14.0	51
Dean Connors	43	403	3	9.4	80
Boden Groen	39	383	3	9.8	31
Landon Ransom-Goelz	26	380	3	14.6	44

View Rice's Full Roster

RICE's DC Brian Smith (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myron Morrison	68	3	1	4	0
Plae Wyatt	65	3	1	2	5
Gabe Taylor	46	1	1	2	8
Chris Conti	45	3	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chike Anigbogu	18	3	2	0	0
De'Braylon Carroll	38	8	2	5	0
Jonathan Jean	34	4	2	0	1
DJ Arkansas	31	2	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre'Shon Devones	38	2	0	0	9
Gabe Taylor	46	1	1	2	8
Tyson Flowers	23	2	1	0	5

USF's OC Joel Gordon (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Byrum Brown	276	426	65%	3292	26	11	7.7
Bryce Archie (Tr)	7	15	47%	53	0	0	3.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Byrum Brown	203	809	11	4.0	60
Nay'Quan Wright (Tr)	180	797	8	4.4	47
Michel Dukes	63	350	2	5.6	30
K'Wan Powell	61	215	1	3.5	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sean Atkins	92	1054	7	11.5	88
Naiem Simmons (Tr)	39	637	5	16.3	53
Khafre Brown	27	435	5	16.1	84
Mike Brown-Stephens (Tr)	27	350	2	13.0	38

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jhalyn Shuler	97	9	2	3	5
Daquan Evans	64	14	4	5	7
Jaelen Stokes	61	5	2	1	1
James Gordon Iv	58	9	4	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daquan Evans	64	14	4	5	7
James Gordon Iv	58	9	4	4	2
Jhalyn Shuler	97	9	2	3	5
Jonathan Ross	47	7	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tavin Ward	38	3	0	0	8
Daquan Evans	64	14	4	5	7
Jhalyn Shuler	97	9	2	3	5