Oregon at Stanford - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (6:30 PM EDT)
Oregon -27 (59.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Oregon 42 - Stanford: 6 (Pac-12)

Ducks (12 - 2) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Dan Lanning (13 - 3)
Avg Score : 44 - 17 (39 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12.3 - 1.7 (#2)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

STAN 3rd straight Home Game
STAN is playing their 5th straight game
ORE is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -36 (SP+ ORE -37.5)
Projected Score: ORE: 47 - STAN: 11 (59)
ORE Win prob: 98% | Cover: 56%
ORE Travel: 460 miles

Cardinal (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Taylor (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 21 - 38 (18 - 37 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.4 - 9.6 (#132)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ORE Players
STAN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oregon's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Oregon vs Portland State	-48.0	64.5	W 81 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oregon at Texas Tech	-4.5	70.0	W 38 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Oregon vs Hawai'i	-38.5	67.5	W 55 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Oregon vs Colorado	-21.0	70.0	W 42 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Oregon at Stanford	-27.0	59.5	W 42 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Oregon at Washington	+3.0	67.0	L 33 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Oregon vs Washington State	-19.5	60.5	W 38 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/28	Oregon at Utah	-6.5	47.5	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Oregon vs California	-26.5	61.5	W 63 - 19	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Oregon vs USC	-12.5	78.5	W 36 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Oregon at Arizona State	-21.5	52.5	W 49 - 13	O	Y
Fri 11/24	Oregon vs Oregon State	-14.0	61.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Fri 12/1	Oregon vs Washington	-9.0	67.0	L 31 - 34	U	N
Mon 1/1	Oregon vs Liberty	-18.5	71.5	W 45 - 6	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule

Stanford's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Stanford at Hawai'i	-2.0	54.0	W 37 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Stanford at USC	+28.5	70.5	L 10 - 56	U	N
Sat 9/16	Stanford vs Sacramento State	-7.0	60.5	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/23	Stanford vs Arizona	+13.0	60.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Stanford vs Oregon	+27.0	59.5	L 6 - 42	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/13	Stanford at Colorado	+13.0	59.0	W 46 - 43	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Stanford vs UCLA	+17.0	52.0	L 7 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/28	Stanford vs Washington	+27.5	62.0	L 33 - 42	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Stanford at Washington State	+13.0	59.5	W 10 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Stanford at Oregon State	+21.5	51.5	L 17 - 62	O	N
Sat 11/18	Stanford vs California	+6.5	52.5	L 15 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/25	Stanford vs Notre Dame	+26.0	50.5	L 23 - 56	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORE	#2 (.49)	57% (1)	44.2	57% (2)	3.69 (4)	171	57% (1)	318	5.11 (1)	#19 (.1)	38% (30)	16.5	39% (35)	39% (27)	3.33 (24)	59.1	0.5	1.1
STAN	#114 (.1)	38% (114)	20.6	41% (95)	2.61 (130)	119	36% (114)	233	3.4 (101)	#133 (.35)	51% (133)	37.7	56% (133)	48% (129)	5.22 (133)	59.1	1.2	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORE	#7 (.33)	51% (5)		51% (11)	3.5 (8)	160	50% (6)	258	4.68 (10)	#33 (.11)	38% (18)		42% (64)	34% (2)	3.68 (59)	40.5	0.8	1.2
STAN	#114 (.1)	40% (101)		41% (95)	2.72 (116)	134	39% (98)	191	3.67 (92)	#120 (.27)	47% (119)		45% (92)	48% (124)	4.53 (124)	49	1.8	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORE Offense	14	44.2	39.4	56.9%	5.11	0.5	24	490	171	318	5.9	44%	56%	57%	57%	9%	.49
STAN Defense	12	37.7	37.1	51.4%	5.22	1	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	56%	48%	11%	.35

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORE Defense	14	16.5	18.2	38.4%	3.33	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	39%	59%	39%	39%	17%	.1
STAN Offense	12	20.6	18.1	37.6%	3.4	1.2	20	352	119	233	3.4	42%	57%	41%	36%	21%	.1

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oregon	14	28:31	24.4	51%	74%	6.5	59.1	0.5	1.1	4.8	2.4	1	29.5
Stanford	12	31:16	19.5	36%	33%	6.3	59.1	1.2	1	4.3	1.9	0	27.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORE Offense	14	44% (107)	57% (2)	29.1	171.4	5.9	32 (10)	.37 (2)	3.69 (4)	78% (32)	6% (3)	1.05 (37)
STAN Defense	12	45% (13)	56% (133)	-	-	-	-	.25 (120)	3.45 (124)	76% (87)	7% (129)	0.9 (25)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORE Defense	14	39% (2)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	.08 (32)	3.08 (60)	55% (6)	9% (96)	0.97 (54)
STAN Offense	12	42% (114)	41% (95)	34.5	118.8	3.4	15 (100)	.06 (114)	2.61 (130)	71% (90)	13% (122)	0.99 (74)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORE Offense	14	56% (22)	57% (1)	26	33.7	318.3	9.4	12.2	44 (1)	5 (6)	.59 (3)	1.5 (112)	24% (3)	43% (3)	.73 (2)	3% (4)	2 (70)
STAN Defense	12	55% (124)	48% (129)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.45 (130)	1.7 (89)	29% (125)	41% (133)	.66 (133)	4% (130)	2.1 (93)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORE Defense	14	59% (132)	39% (27)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.16 (16)	1.5 (45)	32% (70)	30% (60)	.33 (78)	8% (13)	2 (45)
STAN Offense	12	57% (17)	36% (114)	19.4	35.6	233	6.6	12	11 (117)	10 (56)	.16 (106)	1.5 (84)	36% (120)	29% (77)	.28 (87)	8% (126)	2 (71)

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 26.30 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 34.84 #2
Oregon's Defense Rating: 3.60 #18
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 63% #12
Oregon's 2023 Expected Record: 12.30 - 1.70
Oregon's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.0 #5
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 45.0 #1
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #19

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 26.30 Stanford: -10.535

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 25.0 Stanford: -12.3

Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -10.535 #129
Stanford's Offense Rating: 12.41 #107
Stanford's Defense Rating: 22.01 #133
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 17 #36
Stanford's 2023 Expected Record: 2.40 - 9.60
Stanford's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.3 #109
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #94
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #117

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 44.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 39.4
Defense: 16.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.2

Oregon's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 0 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 47
Stanford 11

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Oregon 35
Stanford 22

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
Oregon 40
Stanford 19

Total Points: 59

Stanford Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.1
Defense: 37.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 37.1

Stanford's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 0 - 7
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/30	Stanford	6	Oregon	42	Oregon -27	Oregon	59.5	Under
2022	10/01	Oregon	45	Stanford	27	Oregon -17	Oregon	63.0	Over
2021	10/02	Stanford	31	Oregon	24	Oregon -8.5	Stanford	57.5	Under
2020	11/07	Oregon	35	Stanford	14	Oregon -12	Oregon	49.0	Push
2019	09/21	Stanford	6	Oregon	21	Oregon -13	Oregon	55.5	Under
2018	09/22	Oregon	31	Stanford	38	Stanford -2.5	Stanford	59.0	Over
2017	10/14	Stanford	49	Oregon	7	Stanford -10	Stanford	57.0	Under
2016	11/12	Oregon	27	Stanford	52	Stanford -1	Stanford	57.5	Over
2015	11/14	Stanford	36	Oregon	38	Stanford -8.5	Oregon	65.5	Over
2014	11/01	Oregon	45	Stanford	16	Oregon -12.5	Oregon	0
2013	11/07	Stanford	26	Oregon	20	Oregon -9.5	Stanford	0
2012	11/17	Oregon	14	Stanford	17
2011	11/12	Stanford	30	Oregon	53
2010	10/02	Oregon	52	Stanford	31
2009	11/07	Stanford	51	Oregon	42
2008	11/08	Oregon	35	Stanford	28
2007	09/22	Stanford	31	Oregon	55
2006	09/02	Oregon	48	Stanford	10
2005	10/01	Stanford	20	Oregon	44
2004	10/23	Stanford	13	Oregon	16
2003	10/25	Oregon	35	Stanford	0
2002	11/02	Oregon	41	Stanford	14
2001	10/20	Oregon	42	Stanford	49

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Stanford	8	5	4 Overs
Oregon	15	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 11	6 - 5	4 - 1	2 - 4
Road Teams	11 - 12	5 - 6	4 - 2	1 - 4

(#2) ORE at (#129) STAN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ORE	STAN
Power RatePwr	#2	#129
SP+SP+	#5	#109
Perf GradeGrade	#5	#133
OffenseOff	#1	#118
DefenseDef	#20	#134
Spec TeamsST	#29	#80
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#12	#36

Oregon Injury Report

Stanford Injury Report

Oregon on Offense


CategoryCat	ORE Off	STAN Def
Perf GradePerf	#1	#134
SuccessSuc	#1	#133
ExplosiveExp	#67	#63
PPAPPA	#2	#133
PowerPwr	#2	#133
SP+SP+	#1	#117
Pts POPPO	#1	#133
HavocHav	#2	#133

Oregon Run Game


CategoryCat	ORE Off	STAN Def
Run GameRun	#2	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	#2	#133
Run ExplRExp	#37	#25
PPAExp	#2	#120
Run BlockR Blk	#31	-
OL YdsOLY	#4	#124
Stuff RateStuff	#32	#98
TackleTak	-	#76

Oregon Pass Game


CategoryCat	ORE Off	STAN Def
Pass GamePass	#1	#131
Pass SuccessPSuc	#1	#129
Pass ExplPExl	#112	#89
PPAExp	#3	#130
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#1	#132
F7 HavocF7	#3	#129
DB HavocDB	#4	#130

Stanford on Offense


CategoryCat	STAN Off	ORE Def
Perf GradePerf	#118	#20
SuccessSuc	#114	#30
ExplosiveExp	#68	#78
PPAPPA	#114	#19
PowerPwr	#107	#18
SP+SP+	#94	#19
Pts POPPO	#101	#24
HavocHav	#128	#52

Stanford Run Game


CategoryCat	STAN Off	ORE Def
Run GameRun	#121	#28
Run SuccessRSuc	#95	#35
Run ExplRExp	#74	#54
PPAExp	#114	#32
Run BlockR Blk	#113	-
OL YdsOLY	#130	#60
Stuff RateStuff	#130	#75
TackleTak	-	#4

Stanford Pass Game


CategoryCat	STAN Off	ORE Def
Pass GamePass	#110	#15
Pass SuccessPSuc	#114	#27
Pass ExplPExl	#84	#45
PPAExp	#106	#16
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#121	#45
F7 HavocF7	#122	#96
DB HavocDB	#126	#13

Program Comparison
STAN 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

ORE 5 Year Profile: Improving CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Stanford Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 62° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 5
Oregon 27.0 (59.5)
Oregon won at Stanford this year (42-6)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Stanford in 2023 (42-6)
Oregon beat Stanford in 2022 (45-27)

ORE's OC Will Stein (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bo Nix	364	470	77%	4508	45	3	9.6
Ty Thompson	24	31	77%	297	4	1	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mar'Keise Irving	186	1180	11	6.3	56
Jordan James	107	759	11	7.1	37
Bo Nix	54	234	6	4.3	44
Noah Whittington	20	146	2	7.3	41

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Troy Franklin	81	1383	14	17.1	84
Tez Johnson (Tr)	86	1182	10	13.7	77
Traeshon Holden (Tr)	37	452	6	12.2	63
Gary Bryant Jr. (Tr)	30	442	4	14.7	71

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Evan Williams (Tr)	82	5	5	2	1
Jeffrey Bassa	71	4	0	12	1
Tysheem Johnson (Tr)	70	5	1	3	7
Steve Stephens	56	2	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Dorlus	25	7	5	7	7
Evan Williams (Tr)	82	5	5	2	1
Popo Aumavae	18	3	3	3	0
Jordan Burch (Tr)	34	8	3	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Dorlus	25	7	5	7	7
Tysheem Johnson (Tr)	70	5	1	3	7
Nikko Reed (Tr)	25	2	1	0	7

STAN's OC Troy Taylor (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ashton Daniels	191	327	58%	2247	11	8	6.9
Justin Lamson (Tr)	38	88	43%	504	0	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justin Lamson (Tr)	120	334	5	2.8	49
Ashton Daniels	110	296	3	2.7	24
E.J. Smith	53	216	1	4.1	34
Casey Filkins	38	215	1	5.7	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elic Ayomanor	62	1013	6	16.3	97
Tiger Bachmeier	36	409	2	11.4	41
Sam Roush	28	288	0	10.3	31
E.J. Smith	33	242	0	7.3	53

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gaethan Bernadel (Tr)	81	3	1	4	1
Tristan Sinclair	65	5	1	4	0
Collin Wright	51	4	1	0	4
Mitch Leigber	50	2	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Bailey	31	6	5	2	0
Anthony Franklin	27	6	3	4	1
Tevarua Tafiti	46	5	3	9	1
Mitch Leigber	50	2	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Zahran Manley	28	2	0	4
Collin Wright	51	4	1	4
Alaka'i Gilman	45	0	0	3