South Florida at UConn - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Connecticut -1 (57.0) (0) Open: 0.0
South Florida 24 - UConn: 21

Bulls (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 7.1 (#76)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CONN coming off BYE
USF is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -2.5 (SP+ USF -6.5)
Projected Score: USF: 32 - CONN: 29 (61)
CONN Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
USF Travel: 1103 miles

Huskies (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jim L. Mora (6 - 10)
Avg Score : 35 - 27 (40 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USF Players
CONN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Florida's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	South Florida at Western Kentucky	+13.5	71.5	L 24 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/9	South Florida vs Florida A&M	-20.0	63.0	W 38 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	South Florida vs Alabama	+34.0	61.0	L 3 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	South Florida vs Rice	+2.5	56.5	W 42 - 29	O	Y
Sat 9/30	South Florida at Navy	+4.0	54.0	W 44 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/7	South Florida at UAB	-3.5	68.5	L 35 - 56	O	N
Sat 10/14	South Florida vs Florida Atlantic	-3.0	61.0	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 10/21	South Florida at UConn	+1.0	57.0	W 24 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	South Florida at Memphis	+13.5	68.5	L 50 - 59	O	Y
Sat 11/11	South Florida vs Temple	-7.5	70.5	W 27 - 23	U	N
Fri 11/17	South Florida at UTSA	+14.5	65.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/25	South Florida vs Charlotte	-7.5	56.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Thu 12/21	South Florida vs Syracuse	+3.0	56.0	W 45 - 0	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

UConn's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	UConn vs NC State	+14.5	47.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/9	UConn at Georgia State	+3.0	54.5	L 14 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/16	UConn vs Florida International	-7.0	43.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/23	UConn vs Duke	+22.0	45.0	L 7 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/30	UConn vs Utah State	+4.0	50.5	L 33 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/7	UConn at Rice	+10.0	47.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	UConn vs South Florida	-1.0	57.0	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/28	UConn at Boston College	+14.5	49.0	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/4	UConn at Tennessee	+35.0	55.5	L 3 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/11	UConn at James Madison	+24.5	47.5	L 6 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/18	UConn vs Sacred Heart	-25.5	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UConn at Massachusetts	+2.5	51.0	W 31 - 18	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	.27	44%	40.5	46%	3.54	197	42%	193	4.12	.39	51%	23.4	52%	51%	4.56	36.9	1.7	1.7
CONN	.11	38%	35.3	43%	3.03	191	32%	112	3.67	.19	47%	27	49%	46%	3.69	60.8	1.6	2.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CONN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Offense	12	40.5	35	44%	4.12	1.7	19	390	197	193	5.3	56%	43%	46%	42%	16%	.27
CONN Defense	13	27	19.5	47.2%	3.69	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	49%	46%	15%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Defense	12	23.4	32.3	51.1%	4.56	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	52%	51%	14%	.39
CONN Offense	13	35.3	40.3	38.2%	3.67	1.6	16	303	191	112	4.7	62%	36%	43%	32%	18%	.11

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Florida	12	29:28	19.3	39%	45%	4.6	36.9	1.7	1.7	5.2	1.2	1	29.9
UConn	13	30:17	16.2	37%	39%	7.1	60.8	1.6	2.3	4.2	1.8	0	29.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Offense	12	56%	46%	36.8	196.8	5.3	25	.33	3.54	79%	11%	1.2
CONN Defense	13	52%	49%	-	-	-	-	.21	3.26	83%	9%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Defense	12	54%	52%	-	-	-	-	.41	3.52	70%	10%	1.25
CONN Offense	13	62%	43%	40.4	190.9	4.7	20	.21	3.03	64%	13%	1.17

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Offense	12	43%	42%	15.7	27.2	192.9	7.1	12.3	18	9	.24	1.6	31%	28%	.33	5%	2.3
CONN Defense	13	47%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.21	1.3	27%	31%	.21	6%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Defense	12	45%	51%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.43	1.5	26%	38%	.5	4%	1.9
CONN Offense	13	36%	32%	12.1	21.2	112	5.3	9.3	10	10	.1	1.6	35%	26%	.16	5%	2.1

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: -5.66 #95
South Florida's Offense Rating: 13.60 #94
South Florida's Defense Rating: 11.46 #92
2023 Talent Rating: 622.89 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
South Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 7.10
South Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.5 #102
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #61
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #123

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -5.66 UConn: -10.125

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -9.5 UConn: -16.0

UConn's Power Ratings
UConn's Power Rating: -10.125 #115
UConn's Offense Rating: 12.71 #102
UConn's Defense Rating: 13.58 #109
2023 Talent Rating: 484.94 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
UConn's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40
UConn's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #122
UConn's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.8 #118
UConn's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #97

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 677.82
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
South Florida 32
UConn 29

Projected Total Points: 61

UConn Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.3
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

UConn's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/21	UConn	21	South Florida	24	Connecticut -1	South Florida	57.0	Under
2019	10/05	UConn	22	South Florida	48	South Florida -10.5	South Florida	48.5	Over
2018	10/20	South Florida	38	UConn	30	South Florida -33	UConn	67.5	Over
2017	11/04	UConn	20	South Florida	37	South Florida -24	UConn	64.5	Under
2016	10/15	South Florida	42	UConn	27	South Florida -17	UConn	53.5	Over
2015	10/17	UConn	20	South Florida	28	Connecticut -1.5	South Florida	44.0	Over
2014	09/19	South Florida	17	UConn	14	South Florida -2.5	South Florida	0
2013	10/12	UConn	10	South Florida	13	Connecticut -6	South Florida	0
2012	11/03	South Florida	13	UConn	6
2011	10/15	UConn	16	South Florida	10
2010	12/04	South Florida	16	UConn	19
2009	12/05	UConn	29	South Florida	27
2008	11/23	South Florida	17	UConn	13
2007	10/27	UConn	22	South Florida	15
2006	10/07	South Florida	38	UConn	16
2005	11/26	UConn	15	South Florida	10
2001	10/13	South Florida	40	UConn	21
2000	10/27	UConn	13	South Florida	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UConn	5	3	4 Overs
South Florida	13	5	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 7	2 - 6	1 - 5	1 - 1
Road Teams	7 - 11	6 - 2	1 - 1	5 - 1

(#95) USF at (#115) CONN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USF	CONN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#95	#115
SP+SP+	#102	#122
Perf GradeGrade	#102	#95
OffenseOff	#107	#88
DefenseDef	#78	#76
Spec TeamsST	#79	#126
TalentTal	#65	#93
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

South Florida Injury Report

UConn Injury Report

South Florida on Offense


CategoryCat	USF Off	CONN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#107	#76
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#94	#109
SP+SP+	#61	#97
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

South Florida Run Game


CategoryCat	USF Off	CONN Def
Run GameRun	#57	#18
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#130	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#131

South Florida Pass Game


CategoryCat	USF Off	CONN Def
Pass GamePass	#74	#125
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#93	#50
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

UConn on Offense


CategoryCat	CONN Off	USF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#88	#78
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#102	#92
SP+SP+	#118	#123
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UConn Run Game


CategoryCat	CONN Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#105	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#17	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#111

UConn Pass Game


CategoryCat	CONN Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#96	#103
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#39	#48
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
CONN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

USF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rentschler Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
UConn -1.0 (57.0)
South Florida won at UConn this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat UConn in 2023 (24-21)

USF's OC Joel Gordon (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Byrum Brown	276	426	65%	3292	26	11	7.7
Bryce Archie (Tr)	7	15	47%	53	0	0	3.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Byrum Brown	203	809	11	4.0	60
Nay'Quan Wright (Tr)	180	797	8	4.4	47
Michel Dukes	63	350	2	5.6	30
K'Wan Powell	61	215	1	3.5	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sean Atkins	92	1054	7	11.5	88
Naiem Simmons (Tr)	39	637	5	16.3	53
Khafre Brown	27	435	5	16.1	84
Mike Brown-Stephens (Tr)	27	350	2	13.0	38

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jhalyn Shuler	97	9	2	3	5
Daquan Evans	64	14	4	5	7
Jaelen Stokes	61	5	2	1	1
James Gordon Iv	58	9	4	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daquan Evans	64	14	4	5	7
James Gordon Iv	58	9	4	4	2
Jhalyn Shuler	97	9	2	3	5
Jonathan Ross	47	7	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tavin Ward	38	3	0	0	8
Daquan Evans	64	14	4	5	7
Jhalyn Shuler	97	9	2	3	5

CONN's OC Nick Charlton (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ta'Quan Roberson	197	338	58%	2075	12	6	6.1
Joe Fagnano (Tr)	18	35	51%	173	0	1	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Edwards	122	618	4	5.1	39
Victor Rosa	112	550	3	4.9	71
Devontae Houston	34	161	0	4.7	27
Ta'Quan Roberson	46	120	2	2.6	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cameron Ross	44	568	2	12.9	46
Justin Joly	56	562	2	10.0	59
Brett Buckman	46	488	2	10.6	40
Geordon Porter (Tr)	22	213	1	9.7	28

View UConn's Full Roster

CONN's DC Lou Spanos (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackson Mitchell	113	7	1	4	1
Durante Jones	72	2	1	0	1
Tui Faumuina-Brown	61	4	1	0	0
Noah Plack (Tr)	49	5	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Pryce Yates	42	14	5	2	2
Dalmont Gourdine	28	6	3	2	3
Eric Watts	34	7	2	1	1
Mumu Bin-Wahad (Tr)	34	4	1	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Malcolm Bell	28	2	0	4
Chris Shearin	36	1	0	3
Mumu Bin-Wahad (Tr)	34	4	1	3