South Florida at UAB - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 7th 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
South Florida -3.5 (68.5) (-166) Open: -2.5
UAB 56 - South Florida: 35 (American Athletic)

Bulls (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 32 - 32 (33 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 7.1 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 13.8 MPH
USF 2nd straight Road Game
UAB is playing their 6th straight game
USF is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -0.5 (SP+ USF -5.5)
Projected Score: USF: 34 - UAB: 34 (68)
USF Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
USF Travel: 460 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Blazers (4 - 8) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Trent Dilfer (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 30 - 37 (35 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#89)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USF Players
UAB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Florida's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	South Florida at Western Kentucky	+13.5	71.5	L 24 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/9	South Florida vs Florida A&M	-20.0	63.0	W 38 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	South Florida vs Alabama	+34.0	61.0	L 3 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	South Florida vs Rice	+2.5	56.5	W 42 - 29	O	Y
Sat 9/30	South Florida at Navy	+4.0	54.0	W 44 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/7	South Florida at UAB	-3.5	68.5	L 35 - 56	O	N
Sat 10/14	South Florida vs Florida Atlantic	-3.0	61.0	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 10/21	South Florida at UConn	+1.0	57.0	W 24 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	South Florida at Memphis	+13.5	68.5	L 50 - 59	O	Y
Sat 11/11	South Florida vs Temple	-7.5	70.5	W 27 - 23	U	N
Fri 11/17	South Florida at UTSA	+14.5	65.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/25	South Florida vs Charlotte	-7.5	56.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Thu 12/21	South Florida vs Syracuse	+3.0	56.0	W 45 - 0	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

UAB's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	UAB vs North Carolina A&T	-24.5	46.5	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/9	UAB at Georgia Southern	+7.0	63.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/16	UAB vs Louisiana	-2.0	60.0	L 21 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/23	UAB at Georgia	+40.0	56.0	L 21 - 49	O	Y
Sat 9/30	UAB at Tulane	+22.5	59.5	L 23 - 35	U	Y
Sat 10/7	UAB vs South Florida	+3.5	68.5	W 56 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/14	UAB at UTSA	+9.0	67.0	L 20 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/21	UAB vs Memphis	+7.5	61.5	L 21 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	UAB vs Florida Atlantic	-1.0	59.5	W 45 - 42	O	Y
Sat 11/11	UAB at Navy	-3.5	52.5	L 6 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/18	UAB vs Temple	-8.0	61.5	W 34 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UAB at North Texas	+3.0	72.5	L 42 - 45	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#79 (.17)	39% (106)	31.9	39% (112)	2.99 (92)	183	40% (82)	269	3.63 (89)	#97 (.23)	40% (41)	32.2	40% (44)	40% (47)	3.7 (60)	65.5	1.6	1.9
UAB	#12 (.32)	49% (10)	29.9	51% (11)	3.7 (3)	161	48% (18)	289	3.84 (76)	#119 (.28)	48% (129)	36.9	53% (132)	43% (89)	4.45 (122)	56.3	1.7	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)		39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)		38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1
UAB	#85 (.16)	45% (42)		47% (32)	3.19 (42)	131	44% (48)	262	3.43 (109)	#101 (.23)	45% (104)		52% (132)	35% (12)	4.24 (110)	73.8	2.2	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Offense	13	31.9	33	39.2%	3.63	1.6	23	452	183	269	4.1	52%	47%	39%	40%	16%	.17
UAB Defense	12	36.9	32.2	47.8%	4.45	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	53%	43%	16%	.28

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Defense	13	32.2	42.7	39.8%	3.7	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	40%	40%	19%	.23
UAB Offense	12	29.9	35.3	48.5%	3.84	1.7	24	450	161	289	4.5	47%	51%	51%	48%	18%	.32

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Florida	13	28:35	23.1	38%	43%	7.5	65.5	1.6	1.9	7.5	1.8	1	29.9
UAB	12	29:14	23.7	40%	48%	6.7	56.3	1.7	1.7	4.1	2.3	1	27.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Offense	13	52% (49)	39% (112)	44.6	182.8	4.1	23 (46)	.15 (68)	2.99 (92)	81% (12)	11% (92)	1.16 (8)
UAB Defense	12	50% (73)	53% (132)	-	-	-	-	.36 (133)	3.55 (131)	83% (116)	9% (107)	1.09 (109)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Defense	13	45% (16)	40% (44)	-	-	-	-	.11 (44)	2.73 (16)	69% (44)	12% (15)	1.19 (125)
UAB Offense	12	47% (91)	51% (11)	35.5	161.1	4.5	24 (41)	.32 (4)	3.7 (3)	77% (42)	13% (124)	1.06 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Offense	13	47% (87)	40% (82)	22.1	34.4	268.8	7.8	12.2	27 (25)	11 (68)	.26 (73)	1.6 (64)	36% (121)	27% (95)	.31 (76)	5% (39)	2.3 (15)
UAB Defense	12	49% (64)	43% (89)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.26 (58)	1.5 (46)	30% (109)	36% (124)	.46 (121)	7% (30)	2 (67)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Defense	13	54% (117)	40% (47)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (21)	.37 (112)	1.8 (128)	35% (33)	29% (56)	.37 (96)	7% (46)	2.3 (126)
UAB Offense	12	51% (47)	48% (18)	25.5	35.6	288.9	8.1	11.3	22 (61)	13 (97)	.37 (34)	1.5 (103)	28% (13)	33% (48)	.48 (21)	5% (43)	2.1 (43)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: -5.66 #95
South Florida's Offense Rating: 13.60 #94
South Florida's Defense Rating: 11.46 #92
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
South Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 7.10
South Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.5 #102
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #61
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #123

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -5.66 UAB: -8

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -9.5 UAB: -15.2

UAB's Power Ratings
UAB's Power Rating: -8 #96
UAB's Offense Rating: 23.13 #18
UAB's Defense Rating: 17.37 #126
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
UAB's 2023 Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60
UAB's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
UAB's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
UAB's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.8 #132

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 31.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.7

South Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
South Florida 34
UAB 34

Total Points: 68

Based on Last 4 Games
South Florida 40
UAB 25

Total Points: 65

Based on Entire Season
UAB 35
South Florida 33

Total Points: 68

UAB Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.3
Defense: 36.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.2

UAB's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	UAB	18	South Florida	48	South Florida -21.5	South Florida	68.5	Under
2024	10/19	South Florida	35	UAB	25	South Florida -14	UAB	55.5	Over
2023	10/07	UAB	56	South Florida	35	South Florida -3.5	UAB	68.5	Over
2004	11/03	UAB	20	South Florida	45
2003	11/22	South Florida	19	UAB	22

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UAB	2	2	2 Overs
South Florida	3	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0

(#95) USF at (#96) UAB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USF	UAB
Power RatePwr	#95	#96
SP+SP+	#102	#118
Perf GradeGrade	#102	#87
OffenseOff	#107	#57
DefenseDef	#78	#101
Spec TeamsST	#79	#131
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

South Florida Injury Report

UAB Injury Report

South Florida on Offense


CategoryCat	USF Off	UAB Def
Perf GradePerf	#107	#101
SuccessSuc	#106	#129
ExplosiveExp	#28	#67
PPAPPA	#79	#119
PowerPwr	#94	#126
SP+SP+	#61	#132
Pts POPPO	#89	#122
HavocHav	#77	#78

South Florida Run Game


CategoryCat	USF Off	UAB Def
Run GameRun	#57	#108
Run SuccessRSuc	#112	#132
Run ExplRExp	#8	#109
PPAExp	#68	#133
Run BlockR Blk	#130	-
OL YdsOLY	#92	#131
Stuff RateStuff	#83	#131
TackleTak	-	#69

South Florida Pass Game


CategoryCat	USF Off	UAB Def
Pass GamePass	#74	#104
Pass SuccessPSuc	#82	#89
Pass ExplPExl	#64	#46
PPAExp	#73	#58
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#93	#33
F7 HavocF7	#92	#107
DB HavocDB	#39	#30

UAB on Offense


CategoryCat	UAB Off	USF Def
Perf GradePerf	#57	#78
SuccessSuc	#10	#41
ExplosiveExp	#72	#131
PPAPPA	#12	#97
PowerPwr	#18	#92
SP+SP+	#65	#123
Pts POPPO	#76	#60
HavocHav	#105	#15

UAB Run Game


CategoryCat	UAB Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#21	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	#11	#44
Run ExplRExp	#34	#125
PPAExp	#4	#44
Run BlockR Blk	#64	-
OL YdsOLY	#3	#16
Stuff RateStuff	#13	#17
TackleTak	-	#111

UAB Pass Game


CategoryCat	UAB Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#81	#103
Pass SuccessPSuc	#18	#47
Pass ExplPExl	#103	#128
PPAExp	#34	#112
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#48	#48
F7 HavocF7	#124	#15
DB HavocDB	#43	#46

Program Comparison
UAB 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

USF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Protective Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 71° - Wind: 14 mph

Rematch from Week 6
South Florida 3.5 (68.5)
UAB won vs South Florida this year (56-35)

Previous Matchups
South Florida beat UAB last year (35-25)
UAB beat South Florida in 2023 (56-35)

USF's OC Joel Gordon (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Byrum Brown	276	426	65%	3292	26	11	7.7
Bryce Archie (Tr)	7	15	47%	53	0	0	3.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Byrum Brown	203	809	11	4.0	60
Nay'Quan Wright (Tr)	180	797	8	4.4	47
Michel Dukes	63	350	2	5.6	30
K'Wan Powell	61	215	1	3.5	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sean Atkins	92	1054	7	11.5	88
Naiem Simmons (Tr)	39	637	5	16.3	53
Khafre Brown	27	435	5	16.1	84
Mike Brown-Stephens (Tr)	27	350	2	13.0	38

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jhalyn Shuler	97	9	2	3	5
Daquan Evans	64	14	4	5	7
Jaelen Stokes	61	5	2	1	1
James Gordon Iv	58	9	4	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daquan Evans	64	14	4	5	7
James Gordon Iv	58	9	4	4	2
Jhalyn Shuler	97	9	2	3	5
Jonathan Ross	47	7	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tavin Ward	38	3	0	0	8
Daquan Evans	64	14	4	5	7
Jhalyn Shuler	97	9	2	3	5

UAB's OC Alex Mortensen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jacob Zeno	279	379	74%	3126	20	9	8.2
Landy Lyddy	14	22	64%	121	1	3	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jermaine Brown Jr.	158	803	12	5.1	40
Lee Beebe	52	360	4	6.9	66
Isaiah Jacobs	55	249	3	4.5	26
Jacob Zeno	91	168	4	1.8	44

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tejhaun Palmer	47	858	7	18.3	80
Amare Thomas	53	437	3	8.2	49
Jermaine Brown Jr.	41	416	1	10.1	55
Fred Farrier II	18	266	1	14.8	67

View UAB's Full Roster

UAB's DC Sione Ta'ufo'ou (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keondre Swoopes	72	0	0	0	1
Jackson Bratton	70	5	2	3	1
Michael Moore	62	6	1	3	1
Ike Rowell	54	0	0	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Desmond Little	30	8	6	3	2
Kevin Penn	43	5	4	4	0
Michael Fairbanks II	23	5	4	3	0
Nikia Eason Jr.	26	4	4	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Brian Mayes	41	1	10
Colby Dempsey	37	1	9
Mac McWilliams	52	2	8