New Mexico at Fresno State - 2021 Matchup Preview

New Mexico Lobos at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, November 13th 2021 (7:00 PM EST)
Fresno State -24 (51.0)
Fresno State 34 - New Mexico: 7 (Mountain West)

Lobos (3 - 9) (1 - 11 - 0)
Coach Danny Gonzales (4 - 6)
Avg Score : 12 - 28 (7 - 27 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FRES 2nd straight Home Game
FRES is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -17 (SP+ FRES -29)
Projected Score: UNM: 18 - FRES: 27 (45)
FRES Win prob: 96% | Cover: 57%
UNM Travel: 744 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (6 - 4)
Avg Score : 33 - 21 (38 - 20 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNM Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	New Mexico vs Houston Christian	-25.5	66.0	W 27 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/11	New Mexico vs New Mexico State	-19.5	55.5	W 34 - 25	O	N
Sat 9/18	New Mexico at Texas A&M	+30.5	49.5	L 0 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/25	New Mexico at UTEP	-2.5	53.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/2	New Mexico vs Air Force	+11.5	46.0	L 10 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/9	New Mexico at San Diego State	+19.5	42.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/16	New Mexico vs Colorado State	+13.0	44.5	L 7 - 36	U	N
Sat 10/23	New Mexico at Wyoming	+20.0	41.0	W 14 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6	New Mexico vs UNLV	-1.5	45.0	L 17 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/13	New Mexico at Fresno State	+24.0	51.0	L 7 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/20	New Mexico at Boise State	+27.5	48.0	L 0 - 37	U	N
Fri 11/26	New Mexico vs Utah State	+17.0	48.0	L 10 - 35	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

Fresno State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/28	Fresno State vs UConn	-28.0	63.5	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/4	Fresno State at Oregon	+18.0	62.5	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Fresno State vs Cal Poly	-32.5	59.5	W 63 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Fresno State at UCLA	+11.0	64.0	W 40 - 37	O	Y
Fri 9/24	Fresno State vs UNLV	-30.0	59.0	W 38 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/2	Fresno State at Hawai'i	-10.5	64.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Fresno State at Wyoming	-3.0	53.5	W 17 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Fresno State vs Nevada	-3.5	64.5	W 34 - 32	O	N
Sat 10/30	Fresno State at San Diego State	-2.0	43.5	W 30 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Fresno State vs Boise State	-4.0	61.5	L 14 - 40	U	N
Sat 11/13	Fresno State vs New Mexico	-24.0	51.0	W 34 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/25	Fresno State at San José State	-7.0	52.5	W 40 - 9	U	Y
Sat 12/18	Fresno State vs UTEP	-11.5	51.5	W 31 - 24	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	-.08	28%	12.2	31%	2.25	120	25%	114	2.15	.22	42%	28.4	45%	40%	3.92	57.1	1.7	1.2
FRES	.26	48%	33.4	46%	2.86	137	49%	327	3.86	.11	38%	20.5	41%	36%	3.54	71.2	1.7	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	#14 (.31)	49% (10)		53% (3)	3.81 (1)	254	44% (40)	231	3.83 (79)	#132 (.34)	50% (132)		50% (125)	51% (131)	4.64 (128)	81.5	1.6	0.8
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)		38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)		43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Offense	12	12.2	6.8	28.4%	2.15	1.7	14	234	120	114	3.1	59%	41%	31%	25%	21%	-.08
FRES Defense	13	20.5	19.8	38.5%	3.54	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	41%	36%	20%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Defense	12	28.4	26.5	42.4%	3.92	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	45%	40%	16%	.22
FRES Offense	13	33.4	38	47.6%	3.86	1.7	24	464	137	327	4.1	40%	60%	46%	49%	14%	.26

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico	12	29:51	13.8	25%	33%	6.9	57.1	1.7	1.2	5.2	2.1	1	25.9
Fresno State	13	31:26	24.3	43%	53%	7.6	71.2	1.7	2.2	6.9	2.3	0	30.1

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Offense	12	59%	31%	38.8	119.5	3.1	5	-.08	2.25	57%	18%	1.02
FRES Defense	13	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.81	68%	13%	0.96

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Defense	12	53%	45%	-	-	-	-	.15	3.05	69%	10%	0.93
FRES Offense	13	40%	46%	33.8	137.2	4.1	17	.06	2.86	64%	9%	0.85

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Offense	12	41%	25%	11.9	21.7	114.1	5.3	9.6	10	8	-.03	1.6	37%	15%	-.02	4%	2
FRES Defense	13	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.17	1.8	34%	28%	.29	7%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Defense	12	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.32	1.8	33%	29%	.35	6%	2.2
FRES Offense	13	60%	49%	26.3	39.5	326.7	8.3	12.4	35	10	.39	1.5	28%	35%	.34	5%	1.9

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: NR
New Mexico's Offense Rating: NR
New Mexico's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
New Mexico's 2021 Expected Record: -
New Mexico's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.6 #121
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 11.6 #131
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #95

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: Fresno State: 7.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -18.6 Fresno State: 10.8

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 7.9 NR
Fresno State's Offense Rating: NR
Fresno State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Fresno State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Fresno State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #32
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #27
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #49

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 12.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 6.8
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.5

New Mexico's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 1 - 11 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 27
New Mexico 18

Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Fresno State 23
New Mexico 20

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 32
New Mexico 15

Total Points: 47

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

Fresno State's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	New Mexico	21	Fresno State	38	Fresno State -12	Fresno State	61.0	Under
2023	11/18	Fresno State	17	New Mexico	25	Fresno State -22.5	New Mexico	58.5	Under
2022	10/22	New Mexico	9	Fresno State	41	Fresno State -9.5	Fresno State	40.0	Over
2021	11/13	Fresno State	34	New Mexico	7	Fresno State -24	Fresno State	51.0	Under
2020	12/12	New Mexico	49	Fresno State	39	Fresno State -15	New Mexico	56.5	Over
2018	10/20	New Mexico	7	Fresno State	38	Fresno State -14	Fresno State	52.5	Under
2017	10/14	Fresno State	38	New Mexico	0	New Mexico -2.5	Fresno State	54.5	Under
2014	09/26	New Mexico	24	Fresno State	35	Fresno State -3	Fresno State	0
2013	11/23	Fresno State	69	New Mexico	28	Fresno State -31	Fresno State	0
2012	10/27	New Mexico	32	Fresno State	49

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	8	7	2 Overs
New Mexico	2	2	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 6	4 - 5	2 - 1	2 - 4
Road Teams	6 - 4	5 - 4	4 - 2	1 - 2

(#) UNM at (#) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNM	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#121	#32
Perf GradeGrade	#127	#38
OffenseOff	#132	#67
DefenseDef	#111	#17
Spec TeamsST	#110	#104
TalentTal	#112	#81
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

New Mexico Injury Report

Fresno State Injury Report

New Mexico on Offense


CategoryCat	UNM Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#132	#17
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#131	#49
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico Run Game


CategoryCat	UNM Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#136	#32
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#102	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#18

New Mexico Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNM Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#126	#15
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#86	#46
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	UNM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#111
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#27	#95
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	#51	#119
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#63

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	#32	#66
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#102	#82
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to Average P4

UNM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions: Fog
Temp: 59° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Fresno State -24.0 (51.0)
Fresno State won vs New Mexico this year (34-7)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat New Mexico last year (38-21)
New Mexico beat Fresno State in 2023 (25-17)
Fresno State beat New Mexico in 2022 (41-9)

UNM's OC Drew Mehringer (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Rocky Long (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

FRES's OC Ryan Grubb (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC William Inge (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD