Fresno State at San Diego State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State Aztecs

Saturday, October 30th 2021 (10:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -2 (43.5)
Fresno State 30 - San Diego State: 20 (Mountain West)

Bulldogs (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (6 - 4)
Avg Score : 33 - 21 (29 - 21 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SDSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -1.5 (SP+ FRES -2.5)
Projected Score: FRES: 23 - SDSU: 25 (48)
FRES Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
FRES Travel: 316 miles

Aztecs (12 - 2) (7 - 6 - 1)
Coach Brady Hoke (7 - 4)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (28 - 23 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FRES Players
SDSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/28	Fresno State vs UConn	-28.0	63.5	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/4	Fresno State at Oregon	+18.0	62.5	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Fresno State vs Cal Poly	-32.5	59.5	W 63 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Fresno State at UCLA	+11.0	64.0	W 40 - 37	O	Y
Fri 9/24	Fresno State vs UNLV	-30.0	59.0	W 38 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/2	Fresno State at Hawai'i	-10.5	64.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Fresno State at Wyoming	-3.0	53.5	W 17 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Fresno State vs Nevada	-3.5	64.5	W 34 - 32	O	N
Sat 10/30	Fresno State at San Diego State	-2.0	43.5	W 30 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Fresno State vs Boise State	-4.0	61.5	L 14 - 40	U	N
Sat 11/13	Fresno State vs New Mexico	-24.0	51.0	W 34 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/25	Fresno State at San José State	-7.0	52.5	W 40 - 9	U	Y
Sat 12/18	Fresno State vs UTEP	-11.5	51.5	W 31 - 24	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

San Diego State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	San Diego State vs New Mexico State	-31.0	51.0	W 28 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/11	San Diego State at Arizona	+1.5	46.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/18	San Diego State vs Utah	+8.0	42.5	W 33 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/25	San Diego State vs Towson	-23.0	41.0	W 48 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/9	San Diego State vs New Mexico	-19.5	42.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Fri 10/15	San Diego State at San José State	-10.0	41.0	W 19 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/23	San Diego State at Air Force	+3.0	38.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/30	San Diego State vs Fresno State	+2.0	43.5	L 20 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/6	San Diego State at Hawai'i	-7.0	45.0	W 17 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/13	San Diego State vs Nevada	-2.5	45.0	W 23 - 21	U	N
Fri 11/19	San Diego State at UNLV	-11.0	41.0	W 28 - 20	O	N
Fri 11/26	San Diego State vs Boise State	+3.0	44.0	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 12/4	San Diego State vs Utah State	-6.5	49.5	L 13 - 46	O	N
Tue 12/21	San Diego State vs UTSA	-3.0	48.0	W 38 - 24	O	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	.26	48%	33.4	46%	2.86	137	49%	327	3.86	.11	38%	20.5	41%	36%	3.54	71.2	1.7	2.2
SDSU	.15	40%	27.4	40%	3	175	39%	168	3.57	.07	36%	19.8	33%	38%	3.46	67.9	1	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)		38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)		43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5
SDSU	#108 (.12)	37% (120)		37% (124)	3 (78)	129	38% (109)	206	3.44 (107)	#103 (.23)	46% (113)		49% (117)	43% (98)	4.28 (111)	81.8	0.8	1

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	13	33.4	29.2	47.6%	3.86	1.7	24	464	137	327	4.1	40%	60%	46%	49%	14%	.26
SDSU Defense	14	19.8	22.8	35.8%	3.46	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	39%	61%	33%	38%	20%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	13	20.5	20.7	38.5%	3.54	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	41%	36%	20%	.11
SDSU Offense	14	27.4	27.9	39.7%	3.57	1	19	343	175	168	4.3	56%	43%	40%	39%	15%	.15

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	13	31:26	24.3	43%	53%	7.6	71.2	1.7	2.2	6.9	2.3	0	30.1
San Diego State	14	32:04	18.6	32%	63%	7.4	67.9	1	1.9	6.8	2.9	5	30.5

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	13	40%	46%	33.8	137.2	4.1	17	.06	2.86	64%	9%	0.85
SDSU Defense	14	39%	33%	-	-	-	-	-.06	2.61	65%	12%	0.84

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	13	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.81	68%	13%	0.96
SDSU Offense	14	56%	40%	40.8	174.9	4.3	26	.17	3	76%	10%	1.14

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	13	60%	49%	26.3	39.5	326.7	8.3	12.4	35	10	.39	1.5	28%	35%	.34	5%	1.9
SDSU Defense	14	61%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	17	.18	1.5	36%	26%	.19	8%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	13	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.17	1.8	34%	28%	.29	7%	2.2
SDSU Offense	14	43%	39%	14.9	25.8	167.9	6.5	11.3	16	5	.17	1.4	33%	28%	.24	5%	1.9

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: NR
Fresno State's Offense Rating: NR
Fresno State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Fresno State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Fresno State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #32
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #27
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #49

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: San Diego State: 6.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 10.8 San Diego State: 8.3

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 6.65 NR
San Diego State's Offense Rating: NR
San Diego State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
San Diego State's 2021 Expected Record: -
San Diego State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3 #50
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #93
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.1 #12

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.2
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.7

Fresno State's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
San Diego State 25
Fresno State 23

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
San Diego State 26
Fresno State 19

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 27
San Diego State 24

Total Points: 51

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.9
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.8

San Diego State's 2021 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Fresno State	0	San Diego State	23	San Diego State -3	San Diego State	46.5	Under
2023	11/25	San Diego State	33	Fresno State	18	Fresno State -5.5	San Diego State	47.0	Over
2022	10/29	Fresno State	32	San Diego State	28	Fresno State -10	San Diego State	43.5	Over
2021	10/30	San Diego State	20	Fresno State	30	Fresno State -2	Fresno State	43.5	Over
2019	11/15	San Diego State	17	Fresno State	7	San Diego State -1	San Diego State	43.0	Under
2018	11/17	Fresno State	23	San Diego State	14	Fresno State -13	San Diego State	42.5	Under
2017	10/21	San Diego State	3	Fresno State	27	San Diego State -6.5	Fresno State	49.5	Under
2016	10/14	Fresno State	3	San Diego State	17	San Diego State -17.5	Fresno State	51.0	Under
2015	10/03	San Diego State	21	Fresno State	7	San Diego State -9.5	San Diego State	51.5	Under
2014	10/03	Fresno State	24	San Diego State	13	San Diego State -2	Fresno State	0
2013	10/26	San Diego State	28	Fresno State	35	Fresno State -9.5	San Diego State	0
2012	09/29	Fresno State	52	San Diego State	40
2011	12/03	San Diego State	35	Fresno State	28
2002	08/29	Fresno State	16	San Diego State	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San Diego State	6	7	3 Overs
Fresno State	8	4	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 5	6 - 5	2 - 3	4 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 9	5 - 6	2 - 4	3 - 2

(#) FRES at (#) SDSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FRES	SDSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#32	#50
Perf GradeGrade	#38	#34
OffenseOff	#67	#54
DefenseDef	#17	#21
Spec TeamsST	#104	#18
TalentTal	#81	#95
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Fresno State Injury Report

San Diego State Injury Report

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	SDSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#21
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#27	#12
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	#51	#55
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#48

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	#32	#13
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#102	#23
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

San Diego State on Offense


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	FRES Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#54	#17
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#93	#49
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

San Diego State Run Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#100	#32
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#18	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#18

San Diego State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#91	#15
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#16	#46
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

FRES 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Qualcomm Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 64°

Rematch from Week 9
Fresno State 2.0 (43.5)
Fresno State won at San Diego State this year (30-20)

Previous Matchups
San Diego State beat Fresno State in 2023 (33-18)
Fresno State beat San Diego State in 2022 (32-28)

FRES's OC Ryan Grubb (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC William Inge (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

SDSU's OC Jeff Hecklinski (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Kurt Mattix (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD