UNLV at Fresno State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Friday, September 24th 2021 (10:00 PM EDT)
Fresno State -30 (59.0)
Fresno State 38 - UNLV: 30 (Mountain West)

Rebels (2 - 10) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Marcus Arroyo (0 - 9)
Avg Score : 34 - 28 (35 - 29 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FRES is playing their 4th straight game
UNLV is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -15 (SP+ FRES -25)
Projected Score: UNLV: 26 - FRES: 27 (53)
FRES Win prob: 99% | Cover: 54%
UNLV Travel: 260 miles

Bulldogs (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (6 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNLV Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UNLV's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	UNLV vs Eastern Washington	+2.0	66.0	L 33 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/11	UNLV at Arizona State	+34.5	55.5	L 10 - 37	U	Y
Sat 9/18	UNLV vs Iowa State	+32.0	53.0	L 3 - 48	U	N
Fri 9/24	UNLV at Fresno State	+30.0	59.0	L 30 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/2	UNLV at UTSA	+21.5	55.5	L 17 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	UNLV vs Utah State	+7.5	64.0	L 24 - 28	U	Y
Thu 10/21	UNLV vs San José State	+6.0	44.0	L 20 - 27	O	N
Fri 10/29	UNLV at Nevada	+19.0	58.0	L 20 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/6	UNLV at New Mexico	+1.5	45.0	W 31 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/13	UNLV vs Hawai'i	+3.5	55.5	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Fri 11/19	UNLV vs San Diego State	+11.0	41.0	L 20 - 28	O	Y
Fri 11/26	UNLV at Air Force	+18.5	49.5	L 14 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule

Fresno State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/28	Fresno State vs UConn	-28.0	63.5	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/4	Fresno State at Oregon	+18.0	62.5	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Fresno State vs Cal Poly	-32.5	59.5	W 63 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Fresno State at UCLA	+11.0	64.0	W 40 - 37	O	Y
Fri 9/24	Fresno State vs UNLV	-30.0	59.0	W 38 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/2	Fresno State at Hawai'i	-10.5	64.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Fresno State at Wyoming	-3.0	53.5	W 17 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Fresno State vs Nevada	-3.5	64.5	W 34 - 32	O	N
Sat 10/30	Fresno State at San Diego State	-2.0	43.5	W 30 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Fresno State vs Boise State	-4.0	61.5	L 14 - 40	U	N
Sat 11/13	Fresno State vs New Mexico	-24.0	51.0	W 34 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/25	Fresno State at San José State	-7.0	52.5	W 40 - 9	U	Y
Sat 12/18	Fresno State vs UTEP	-11.5	51.5	W 31 - 24	O	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNLV	.11	38%	34.1	43%	3.06	140	33%	186	3.04	.34	48%	28	54%	41%	4.13	54	1.5	0.8
FRES	.22	45%	25.8	43%	2.74	123	46%	355	3.84	.2	37%	18.8	42%	32%	3.68	47.8	1.7	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNLV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNLV Offense	6	34.1	34.7	37.7%	3.04	1.5	19	326	140	186	3.8	46%	54%	43%	33%	22%	.11
FRES Defense	6	18.8	15.3	37.2%	3.68	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	42%	32%	18%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNLV Defense	6	28	29.3	47.9%	4.13	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	54%	41%	13%	.34
FRES Offense	6	25.8	26.5	44.9%	3.84	1.7	24	478	123	355	3.4	42%	58%	43%	46%	15%	.22

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UNLV	6	29:16	18.7	37%	67%	6.5	54	1.5	0.8	5.2	2.3	0	26
Fresno State	6	31:33	24.3	43%	62%	5.5	47.8	1.7	1.7	7.5	4	0	29

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNLV Offense	6	46%	43%	37.2	140.2	3.8	7	.16	3.06	90%	15%	1.1
FRES Defense	6	54%	42%	-	-	-	-	.26	3.01	84%	13%	1.32

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNLV Defense	6	54%	54%	-	-	-	-	.41	3.56	72%	9%	1.17
FRES Offense	6	42%	43%	36	123	3.4	12	.13	2.74	75%	11%	0.98

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNLV Offense	6	54%	33%	19.2	32.7	185.8	5.7	9.7	6	4	.06	1.4	36%	28%	.27	7%	2
FRES Defense	6	46%	32%	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	.14	1.7	36%	29%	.36	5%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNLV Defense	6	46%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	.25	1.6	30%	34%	.45	4%	2.2
FRES Offense	6	58%	46%	26.2	41.2	355.2	8.6	13.6	14	5	.29	1.6	32%	37%	.56	4%	2.1

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: NR
UNLV's Offense Rating: NR
UNLV's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
UNLV's 2021 Expected Record: -
UNLV's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.8 #116
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #117
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #104

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UNLV: Fresno State: 7.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UNLV: -13.8 Fresno State: 10.8

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 7.9 NR
Fresno State's Offense Rating: NR
Fresno State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Fresno State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Fresno State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #32
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #27
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #49

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.7
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

UNLV's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 27
UNLV 26

Projected Total Points: 53

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	UNLV	59	Fresno State	14	UNLV -2.5	UNLV	51.0	Over
2023	10/28	Fresno State	31	UNLV	24	Fresno State -10.5	UNLV	56.0	Under
2022	11/11	UNLV	30	Fresno State	37	Fresno State -9	UNLV	61.5	Over
2021	09/24	Fresno State	38	UNLV	30	Fresno State -30	UNLV	59.0	Over
2020	11/07	UNLV	27	Fresno State	40	Fresno State -11	Fresno State	57.5	Over
2019	10/18	Fresno State	56	UNLV	27	Fresno State -14.5	Fresno State	52.0	Over
2018	11/03	UNLV	3	Fresno State	48	Fresno State -27	Fresno State	58.5	Under
2017	10/28	Fresno State	16	UNLV	26	Fresno State -21.5	UNLV	59.0	Under
2016	10/01	UNLV	45	Fresno State	20	UNLV -11.5	UNLV	56.5	Over
2015	10/16	Fresno State	31	UNLV	28	UNLV -5.5	Fresno State	49.0	Over
2014	10/10	UNLV	30	Fresno State	27	Fresno State -9	UNLV	0
2013	10/19	Fresno State	38	UNLV	14	Fresno State -21	Fresno State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	8	5	7 Overs
UNLV	4	7	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 4	7 - 5	4 - 3	3 - 2
Road Teams	4 - 8	5 - 7	2 - 3	3 - 4

(#) UNLV at (#) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNLV	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#116	#32
Perf GradeGrade	#107	#38
OffenseOff	#109	#67
DefenseDef	#93	#17
Spec TeamsST	#34	#104
TalentTal	#108	#81
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

UNLV Injury Report

Fresno State Injury Report

UNLV on Offense


CategoryCat	UNLV Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#109	#17
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#117	#49
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UNLV Run Game


CategoryCat	UNLV Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#110	#32
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#65	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#18

UNLV Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNLV Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#112	#15
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#123	#46
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	UNLV Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#93
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#27	#104
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	UNLV Def
Run GameRun	#51	#70
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#107

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	UNLV Def
Pass GamePass	#32	#97
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#102	#94
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to Average P4

UNLV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Fresno State -30.0 (59.0)
Fresno State won vs UNLV this year (38-30)

Previous Matchups
UNLV beat Fresno State in 2024 (59-14)
Fresno State beat UNLV in 2023 (31-24)

UNLV's OC Glenn Thomas (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Peter Hansen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

FRES's OC Ryan Grubb (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC William Inge (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD