Michigan at Michigan State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans

Saturday, October 30th 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
Michigan -4 (50.5)
Michigan State 37 - Michigan: 33 (Big Ten)

Wolverines (12 - 2) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Jim Harbaugh (52 - 22)
Avg Score : 28 - 20 (26 - 24 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSU coming off BYE
Our Line: -3.5 (SP+ MICH -12)
Projected Score: MICH: 28 - MSU: 24 (52)
MICH Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MICH Travel: 49 miles

Spartans (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Mel Tucker (5 - 5)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (25 - 28 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MICH Players
MSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Michigan vs Western Michigan	-16.5	65.5	W 47 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Michigan vs Washington	-6.5	47.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Michigan vs Northern Illinois	-27.5	54.5	W 63 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Michigan vs Rutgers	-20.0	50.0	W 20 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/2	Michigan at Wisconsin	+2.0	43.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Michigan at Nebraska	-2.5	50.5	W 32 - 29	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Michigan vs Northwestern	-23.5	51.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Michigan at Michigan State	-4.0	50.5	L 33 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/6	Michigan vs Indiana	-20.5	51.0	W 29 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Michigan at Penn State	-2.5	48.0	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Michigan at Maryland	-16.0	58.5	W 59 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Michigan vs Ohio State	+6.5	63.5	W 42 - 27	O	Y
Sat 12/4	Michigan vs Iowa	-12.0	43.5	W 42 - 3	O	Y
Fri 12/31	Michigan vs Georgia	+7.5	47.0	L 11 - 34	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule

Michigan State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	Michigan State at Northwestern	+3.0	45.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Michigan State vs Youngstown State	-28.5	52.0	W 42 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/18	Michigan State at Miami	+7.0	57.5	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Michigan State vs Nebraska	-3.5	55.0	W 23 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/2	Michigan State vs Western Kentucky	-10.5	66.5	W 48 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Michigan State at Rutgers	-4.5	50.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Michigan State at Indiana	-3.5	48.5	W 20 - 15	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Michigan State vs Michigan	+4.0	50.5	W 37 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Michigan State at Purdue	-2.5	53.0	L 29 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/13	Michigan State vs Maryland	-11.5	60.0	W 40 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Michigan State at Ohio State	+19.5	70.5	L 7 - 56	U	N
Sat 11/27	Michigan State vs Penn State	+3.5	51.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Thu 12/30	Michigan State vs Pittsburgh	-3.5	55.0	W 31 - 21	U	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MICH	.23	43%	27.5	45%	2.94	131	42%	250	4.09	.22	42%	20.4	41%	44%	4.36	57.5	1	0.3
MSU	-.02	33%	24.6	28%	2.17	92	38%	239	2.49	.13	40%	29.9	38%	41%	3.71	65.1	2.9	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MICH		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MICH Offense	6	27.5	26.4	43.1%	4.09	1	19	382	131	250	4.6	43%	57%	45%	42%	16%	.23
MSU Defense	7	29.9	27.8	39.6%	3.71	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	38%	41%	16%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MICH Defense	6	20.4	24.4	42.4%	4.36	0.3	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	41%	44%	10%	.22
MSU Offense	7	24.6	24.8	33.2%	2.49	2.9	16	331	92	239	2.7	48%	52%	28%	38%	21%	-.02

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan	6	25:30	19.3	36%	44%	5.8	57.5	1	0.3	3.3	1.5	1	27
Michigan State	7	27:14	16.1	33%	42%	6.9	65.1	2.9	1.4	6.1	1.7	0	25.7

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MICH Offense	6	43%	45%	28.7	131.2	4.6	12	.1	2.94	61%	8%	0.97
MSU Defense	7	48%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	2.42	64%	10%	1.06

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MICH Defense	6	53%	41%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.92	92%	5%	0.97
MSU Offense	7	48%	28%	34	92.1	2.7	2	-.17	2.17	63%	13%	0.9

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MICH Offense	6	57%	42%	20.5	35.5	250.3	7.1	12.2	9	4	.33	1.6	34%	35%	.47	8%	2
MSU Defense	7	52%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.26	1.5	33%	36%	.46	6%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MICH Defense	6	47%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	.36	1.6	31%	35%	.41	5%	1.9
MSU Offense	7	52%	38%	18.9	34.7	238.9	6.9	12.7	11	12	.14	1.6	36%	23%		8%	1.8

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: NR
Michigan's Offense Rating: NR
Michigan's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Michigan's 2021 Expected Record: -
Michigan's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.4 #4
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #19
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.8 #10

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan: Michigan State: 8.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 23.4 Michigan State: 11.2

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 8.1 NR
Michigan State's Offense Rating: NR
Michigan State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Michigan State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Michigan State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.2 #28
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #31
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.4
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.4

Michigan's 2021 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan 28
Michigan State 24

Projected Total Points: 52

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Michigan State's 2021 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Michigan State	20	Michigan	31	Michigan -13.5	Michigan State	47.5	Over
2024	10/26	Michigan	24	Michigan State	17	Michigan -3.5	Michigan	39.0	Over
2023	10/21	Michigan State	0	Michigan	49	Michigan -25.5	Michigan	47.0	Over
2022	10/29	Michigan	29	Michigan State	7	Michigan -22	Push	55.0	Under
2021	10/30	Michigan State	37	Michigan	33	Michigan -4	Michigan State	50.5	Over
2020	10/31	Michigan	24	Michigan State	27	Michigan -25.0	Michigan State	0
2019	11/16	Michigan	44	Michigan State	10	Michigan -13.5	Michigan	43.5	Over
2018	10/20	Michigan State	7	Michigan	21	Michigan -7.5	Michigan	38.5	Under
2017	10/07	Michigan	10	Michigan State	14	Michigan -12.5	Michigan State	40.0	Under
2016	10/29	Michigan State	23	Michigan	32	Michigan -21	Michigan State	49.5	Over
2015	10/17	Michigan	23	Michigan State	27	Michigan -7	Michigan State	42.5	Over
2014	10/25	Michigan State	35	Michigan	11	Michigan State -15.5	Michigan State	0
2013	11/02	Michigan State	29	Michigan	6	Michigan State -3.5	Michigan State	0
2012	10/20	Michigan	12	Michigan State	10
2011	10/15	Michigan State	28	Michigan	14
2010	10/09	Michigan	17	Michigan State	34
2009	10/03	Michigan State	26	Michigan	20
2008	10/25	Michigan	21	Michigan State	35
2007	11/03	Michigan State	24	Michigan	28
2006	10/07	Michigan	31	Michigan State	13
2005	10/01	Michigan State	31	Michigan	34
2004	10/30	Michigan	45	Michigan State	37
2003	11/01	Michigan State	20	Michigan	27
2002	11/02	Michigan	49	Michigan State	3
2001	11/03	Michigan State	26	Michigan	24
2000	10/20	Michigan	14	Michigan State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan State	11	8	7 Overs
Michigan	15	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 12	7 - 5	4 - 3	3 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 14	5 - 7	2 - 3	3 - 4

(#) MICH at (#) MSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MICH	MSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#4	#28
Perf GradeGrade	#6	#36
OffenseOff	#30	#26
DefenseDef	#6	#43
Spec TeamsST	#17	#126
TalentTal	#15	#36
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Michigan Injury Report

Michigan State Injury Report

Michigan on Offense


CategoryCat	MICH Off	MSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#30	#43
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#19	#30
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Michigan Run Game


CategoryCat	MICH Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#5	#20
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#61	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#109

Michigan Pass Game


CategoryCat	MICH Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#41	#91
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#50	#20
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Michigan State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSU Off	MICH Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#26	#6
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#31	#10
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Michigan State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	MICH Def
Run GameRun	#51	#10
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#6

Michigan State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	MICH Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#34
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#22	#3
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'21 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Michigan 4.0 (50.5)
Michigan State won vs Michigan this year (37-33)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Michigan State last year (31-20)
Michigan beat Michigan State in 2024 (24-17)
Michigan beat Michigan State in 2023 (49-0)

MICH's OC Josh Gattis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Mike Macdonald (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSU's OC Jay Johnson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD