Michigan at Michigan State - 2021 Matchup Preview
Michigan logo (#25)Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State SpartansMichigan State logo
Saturday, October 30th 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
Michigan -4 (50.5)
Michigan State 37 - Michigan: 33  (Big Ten)

 
Wolverines (12 - 2) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Jim Harbaugh (52 - 22)
Avg Score : 36 - 17 (37 - 24 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MSU coming off BYE
Our Line: -3.5  (SP+ MICH -12)
Projected Score: MICH: 29 - MSU: 27 (56)
MICH Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MICH Travel: 49 miles
Spartans (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Mel Tucker (5 - 5)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (37 - 24 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Michigan's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Michigan vs Western Michigan-16.565.5W 47 - 14UY
Sat 9/11 Michigan vs Washington-6.547.5W 31 - 10UY
Sat 9/18 Michigan vs Northern Illinois-27.554.5W 63 - 10OY
Sat 9/25 Michigan vs Rutgers-20.050.0W 20 - 13UN
Sat 10/2 Michigan at Wisconsin+2.043.5W 38 - 17OY
Sat 10/9 Michigan at Nebraska-2.550.5W 32 - 29OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23 Michigan vs Northwestern-23.551.5W 33 - 7UY
Sat 10/30 Michigan at Michigan State-4.050.5L 33 - 37ON
Sat 11/6 Michigan vs Indiana-20.551.0W 29 - 7UY
Sat 11/13 Michigan at Penn State-2.548.0W 21 - 17UY
Sat 11/20 Michigan at Maryland-16.058.5W 59 - 18OY
Sat 11/27 Michigan vs Ohio State+6.563.5W 42 - 27OY
Sat 12/4 Michigan vs Iowa-12.043.5W 42 - 3OY
Fri 12/31 Michigan vs Georgia+7.547.0L 11 - 34UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule
Michigan State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3 Michigan State at Northwestern+3.045.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 9/11 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-28.552.0W 42 - 14ON
Sat 9/18 Michigan State at Miami+7.057.5W 38 - 17UY
Sat 9/25 Michigan State vs Nebraska-3.555.0W 23 - 20UN
Sat 10/2 Michigan State vs Western Kentucky-10.566.5W 48 - 31OY
Sat 10/9 Michigan State at Rutgers-4.550.0W 31 - 13UY
Sat 10/16 Michigan State at Indiana-3.548.5W 20 - 15UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30 Michigan State vs Michigan+4.050.5W 37 - 33OY
Sat 11/6 Michigan State at Purdue-2.553.0L 29 - 40ON
Sat 11/13 Michigan State vs Maryland-11.560.0W 40 - 21OY
Sat 11/20 Michigan State at Ohio State+19.570.5L 7 - 56UN
Sat 11/27 Michigan State vs Penn State+3.551.5W 30 - 27OY
Thu 12/30 Michigan State vs Pittsburgh-3.555.0W 31 - 21UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH.2747%35.849%3.1821443%2294.15.1238%17.439%38%3.0341.511.2
MSU.2743%31.844%2.9417643%2543.78.1944%25.341%46%3.4363.91.41.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)41% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)38% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)45% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)39% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Offense1435.836.646.5%4.151224432142295.257%43%49%43%10%.27
MSU Defense1325.324.344%3.431.7 - - - - - 38%61%41%46%17%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Defense1417.423.638.3%3.031.2 - - - - - 46%54%39%38%17%.12
MSU Offense1331.836.743.3%3.781.4214291762544.852%48%44%43%18%.27

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan1431:2121.846%52%4.941.511.25.12.4231.1
Michigan State1328:2820.840%70%6.963.91.41.76.53.3429.3
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Offense1457%49%41.1214.45.239.223.1879%5%0.94
MSU Defense1338%41% - - - - .052.7870%10%0.85
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Defense1446%39% - - - - .052.7866%10%0.91
MSU Offense1352%44%36.8175.64.823.182.9467%10%1.12

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Offense1443%43%17.728.2228.78.112.9219.331.628%39%.555%2
MSU Defense1361%46% - - - - - - 10.281.433%32%.386%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Defense1454%38% - - - - - - 8.181.533%26%.167%2
MSU Offense1348%43%18.730.8253.78.313.62710.381.832%33%.47%2.1

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: NR
Michigan's Offense Rating: NR
Michigan's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Michigan's 2021 Expected Record: -
Michigan's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.4  #4
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.5  #19
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.8  #10

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan:    Michigan State: 8.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 23.4   Michigan State: 11.2




Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 8.1 NR
Michigan State's Offense Rating: NR
Michigan State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Michigan State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Michigan State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.2  #28
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3  #31
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Michigan Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 36.6
Defense: 17.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

Michigan's 2021 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 29
Michigan State 27

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Michigan 28
Michigan State 26

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Michigan 31
Michigan State 28

Total Points: 59
Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.7
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

Michigan State's 2021 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25Michigan State20Michigan31Michigan -13.5Michigan State47.5Over
202410/26Michigan24Michigan State17Michigan -3.5Michigan39.0Over
202310/21Michigan State0Michigan49Michigan -25.5Michigan47.0Over
202210/29Michigan29Michigan State7Michigan -22Push55.0Under
202110/30Michigan State37Michigan33Michigan -4Michigan State50.5Over
202010/31Michigan24Michigan State27Michigan -25.0Michigan State0
201911/16Michigan44Michigan State10Michigan -13.5Michigan43.5Over
201810/20Michigan State7Michigan21Michigan -7.5Michigan38.5Under
201710/07Michigan10Michigan State14Michigan -12.5Michigan State40.0Under
201610/29Michigan State23Michigan32Michigan -21Michigan State49.5Over
201510/17Michigan23Michigan State27Michigan -7Michigan State42.5Over
201410/25Michigan State35Michigan11Michigan State -15.5Michigan State0
201311/02Michigan State29Michigan6Michigan State -3.5Michigan State0
201210/20Michigan12Michigan State10
201110/15Michigan State28Michigan14
201010/09Michigan17Michigan State34
200910/03Michigan State26Michigan20
200810/25Michigan21Michigan State35
200711/03Michigan State24Michigan28
200610/07Michigan31Michigan State13
200510/01Michigan State31Michigan34
200410/30Michigan45Michigan State37
200311/01Michigan State20Michigan27
200211/02Michigan49Michigan State3
200111/03Michigan State26Michigan24
200010/20Michigan14Michigan State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan State1187 Overs
Michigan1543 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 127 - 54 - 33 - 2
Road Teams12 - 145 - 72 - 33 - 4

(#) MICH at (#) MSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMICHMSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #4 #28
Perf GradeGrade #6 #36
OffenseOff #30 #26
DefenseDef #6 #43
Spec TeamsST #17 #126
TalentTal #15 #36
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Michigan on Offense
CategoryCat
MICH OffMSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #30 #43
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #19 #30
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Michigan Run Game
CategoryCat
MICH OffMSU Def
Run GameRun #5 #20
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #61 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #109
Michigan Pass Game
CategoryCat
MICH OffMSU Def
Pass GamePass #41 #91
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #50 #20
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Michigan State on Offense
CategoryCatMSU OffMICH Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #26 #6
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #31 #10
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Michigan State Run Game
CategoryCat
MSU OffMICH Def
Run GameRun #51 #10
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #29 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #6
Michigan State Pass Game
CategoryCatMSU OffMICH Def
Pass GamePass #61 #34
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #22 #3
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'21 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 54° - Wind: 12 mph
Rematch from Week 9
Michigan 4.0 (50.5)
Michigan State won vs Michigan this year (37-33)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Michigan State last year (24-17)
Michigan beat Michigan State in 2023 (49-0)
Michigan beat Michigan State in 2022 (29-7)

  
MICH's OC Josh Gattis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

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MICH's DC Mike Macdonald (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

MSU's OC Jay Johnson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

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MSU's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD