South Florida at NC State - 2021 Matchup Preview

South Florida Bulls at NC State Wolfpack

Thursday, September 2nd 2021 (7:30 PM EDT)
NC State -20 (58.0)
NC State 45 - South Florida: 0

Bulls (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Charlie Weis Jr. (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -16.5 (SP+ NCST -28)
Projected Score: USF: 31 - NCST: 30 (61)
NCST Win prob: 93% | Cover: 53%
USF Travel: 584 miles

Wolfpack (9 - 3) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (57 - 47)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (35 - 21 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USF Players
NCST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Florida's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	South Florida at NC State	+20.0	58.0	L 0 - 45	U	N
Sat 9/11	South Florida vs Florida	+29.0	57.0	L 20 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/18	South Florida vs Florida A&M	-22.5	50.0	W 38 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/25	South Florida at BYU	+23.5	54.5	L 27 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/2	South Florida at SMU	+21.5	68.5	L 17 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	South Florida vs Tulsa	+7.5	56.0	L 31 - 32	O	Y
Sat 10/23	South Florida vs Temple	-1.5	54.5	W 34 - 14	U	Y
Thu 10/28	South Florida at East Carolina	+9.5	55.5	L 14 - 29	U	N
Sat 11/6	South Florida vs Houston	+13.5	53.0	L 42 - 54	O	Y
Fri 11/12	South Florida vs Cincinnati	+24.5	58.5	L 28 - 45	O	Y
Sat 11/20	South Florida at Tulane	+5.5	59.5	L 14 - 45	U	N
Fri 11/26	South Florida at UCF	+17.0	62.0	L 13 - 17	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

NC State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	NC State vs South Florida	-20.0	58.0	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/11	NC State at Mississippi State	-1.5	55.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/18	NC State vs Furman	-27.5	45.0	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/25	NC State vs Clemson	+10.5	46.5	W 27 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/2	NC State vs Louisiana Tech	-18.5	56.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	NC State at Boston College	-3.0	51.0	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/23	NC State at Miami	-3.5	54.5	L 30 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/30	NC State vs Louisville	-6.0	57.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/6	NC State at Florida State	-3.0	55.0	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/13	NC State at Wake Forest	+1.0	65.0	L 42 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/20	NC State vs Syracuse	-11.0	49.5	W 41 - 17	O	Y
Fri 11/26	NC State vs North Carolina	-6.5	62.0	W 34 - 30	O	N
Tue 12/28	NC State vs UCLA	-2.0	60.0

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	.08	40%	40.5	40%	2.83	149	41%	217	2.29	.22	47%	23.4	46%	48%	4.29	48.9	1.9	1.4
NCST	.16	42%	30.2	43%	2.61	123	42%	262	3.87	.16	41%	27.2	40%	41%	3.82	74.3	1.6	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NCST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Offense	9	40.5	35	40.3%	2.29	1.9	21	365	149	217	4	48%	51%	40%	41%	20%	.08
NCST Defense	12	27.2	21	40.7%	3.82	1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	40%	41%	18%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Defense	9	23.4	32.3	46.6%	4.29	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	46%	48%	13%	.22
NCST Offense	12	30.2	35.3	42.5%	3.87	1.6	22	385	123	262	3.4	50%	50%	43%	42%	17%	.16

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Florida	9	28:27	21	31%	29%	5.3	48.9	1.9	1.4	4.8	0.8	3	28.5
NC State	12	29:57	22.3	44%	67%	8.1	74.3	1.6	1	7.6	2.8	3	29.7

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Offense	9	48%	40%	37.4	148.8	4	11	.07	2.83	72%	14%	0.93
NCST Defense	12	49%	40%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.71	59%	12%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Defense	9	56%	46%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.94	79%	8%	0.95
NCST Offense	12	50%	43%	36.2	123.3	3.4	20	.03	2.61	71%	11%	0.84

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Offense	9	51%	41%	20.8	34.7	216.6	6.3	10.4	12	6	.09	1.4	34%	25%	.09	6%	2
NCST Defense	12	50%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.6	34%	32%	.4	7%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Defense	9	44%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.34	1.6	29%	34%	.46	4%	2.1
NCST Offense	12	50%	42%	20.9	33.3	261.9	7.9	12.5	24	15	.3	1.8	31%	36%	.39	6%	2.1

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: NR
South Florida's Offense Rating: NR
South Florida's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
South Florida's 2021 Expected Record: -
South Florida's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.1 #111
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.5 #96
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #118

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: NC State: 10.55

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -12.1 NC State: 16.1

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 10.55 NR
NC State's Offense Rating: NR
NC State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
NC State's 2021 Expected Record: -
NC State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.1 #14
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #39
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #14

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
South Florida 31
NC State 30

Projected Total Points: 61

NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.3
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

NC State's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2021	09/02	NC State	45	South Florida	0	NC State -20	NC State	58.0	Under
2014	09/13	South Florida	17	NC State	49	NC State -1.5	NC State	0
2008	09/27	NC State	10	South Florida	41
2005	12/31	NC State	14	South Florida	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
NC State	3	2	0 Overs
South Florida	1	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1

(#) USF at (#) NCST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USF	NCST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#111	#14
Perf GradeGrade	#114	#29
OffenseOff	#111	#41
DefenseDef	#118	#27
Spec TeamsST	#29	#55
TalentTal	#73	#34
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

South Florida Injury Report

NC State Injury Report

South Florida on Offense


CategoryCat	USF Off	NCST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#111	#27
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#96	#14
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

South Florida Run Game


CategoryCat	USF Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#87	#26
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#113	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#36

South Florida Pass Game


CategoryCat	USF Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#124	#39
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#51	#78
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	USF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#41	#118
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#39	#118
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#101	#117
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#23	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#135

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#19	#111
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#48	#124
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

USF 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 70° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 1
NC State -20.0 (58.0)
NC State won vs South Florida this year (45-0)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

USF's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Glenn Spencer (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NCST's OC Tim Beck* (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD