NC State at Miami - 2021 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 23rd 2021 (7:30 PM EDT)
NC State -3.5 (54.5)
Miami 31 - NC State: 30 (ACC)

Wolfpack (9 - 3) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (57 - 47)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (23 - 40 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NCST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: -0 (SP+ NCST -5.5)
Projected Score: NCST: 20 - MIAMI: 34 (54)
NCST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
NCST Travel: 686 miles

Hurricanes (7 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (15 - 12)
Avg Score : 31 - 15 (36 - 12 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NCST Players
MIAMI Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

NC State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	NC State vs South Florida	-20.0	58.0	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/11	NC State at Mississippi State	-1.5	55.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/18	NC State vs Furman	-27.5	45.0	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/25	NC State vs Clemson	+10.5	46.5	W 27 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/2	NC State vs Louisiana Tech	-18.5	56.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	NC State at Boston College	-3.0	51.0	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/23	NC State at Miami	-3.5	54.5	L 30 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/30	NC State vs Louisville	-6.0	57.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/6	NC State at Florida State	-3.0	55.0	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/13	NC State at Wake Forest	+1.0	65.0	L 42 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/20	NC State vs Syracuse	-11.0	49.5	W 41 - 17	O	Y
Fri 11/26	NC State vs North Carolina	-6.5	62.0	W 34 - 30	O	N
Tue 12/28	NC State vs UCLA	-2.0	60.0

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Miami's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Miami vs Alabama	+19.5	61.5	L 13 - 44	U	N
Sat 9/11	Miami vs App State	-7.5	55.0	W 25 - 23	U	N
Sat 9/18	Miami vs Michigan State	-7.0	57.5	L 17 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/25	Miami vs Central Connecticut	-46.0	55.5	W 69 - 0	O	Y
Thu 9/30	Miami vs Virginia	-3.5	63.5	L 28 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Miami at North Carolina	+7.5	63.5	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/23	Miami vs NC State	+3.5	54.5	W 31 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/30	Miami at Pittsburgh	+9.5	61.0	W 38 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Miami vs Georgia Tech	-10.0	63.0	W 33 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/13	Miami at Florida State	-2.5	61.5	L 28 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/20	Miami vs Virginia Tech	-7.0	55.5	W 38 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Miami at Duke	-20.5	67.0	W 47 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	.16	42%	30.2	43%	2.61	123	42%	262	3.87	.16	41%	27.2	40%	41%	3.82	74.3	1.6	1
MIAMI	.24	42%	30.9	41%	2.75	164	43%	277	4.27	.2	43%	14.8	46%	40%	3.79	72.2	1.1	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MIAMI		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Offense	12	30.2	23	42.5%	3.87	1.6	22	385	123	262	3.4	50%	50%	43%	42%	17%	.16
MIAMI Defense	11	14.8	11.8	42.9%	3.79	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	46%	40%	20%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Defense	12	27.2	39.8	40.7%	3.82	1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	40%	41%	18%	.16
MIAMI Offense	11	30.9	36.1	42.2%	4.27	1.1	23	441	164	277	4.3	49%	51%	41%	43%	20%	.24

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
NC State	12	29:57	22.3	44%	67%	8.1	74.3	1.6	1	7.6	2.8	3	29.7
Miami	11	27:11	22.7	40%	68%	7.8	72.2	1.1	1.5	8.5	2.8	0	27.8

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Offense	12	50%	43%	36.2	123.3	3.4	20	.03	2.61	71%	11%	0.84
MIAMI Defense	11	48%	46%	-	-	-	-	.18	2.72	76%	14%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Defense	12	49%	40%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.71	59%	12%	0.99
MIAMI Offense	11	49%	41%	38.1	163.6	4.3	18	.14	2.75	77%	13%	1.06

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Offense	12	50%	42%	20.9	33.3	261.9	7.9	12.5	24	15	.3	1.8	31%	36%	.39	6%	2.1
MIAMI Defense	11	52%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.21	1.5	33%	29%	.25	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Defense	12	50%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.6	34%	32%	.4	7%	2.1
MIAMI Offense	11	51%	43%	21.7	34.6	277.3	8	12.8	26	6	.35	1.7	34%	34%	.44	8%	2.1

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: NR
NC State's Offense Rating: NR
NC State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
NC State's 2021 Expected Record: -
NC State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.1 #14
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #39
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #14

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: Miami: 7.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 16.1 Miami: 10.8

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 7.9 NR
Miami's Offense Rating: NR
Miami's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Miami's 2021 Expected Record: -
Miami's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #32
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #25
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.8

NC State's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Miami 34
NC State 20

Projected Total Points: 54

Miami Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.1
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.8

Miami's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Miami	41	NC State	7	Miami -16.5	Miami	54.5	Under
2023	11/04	NC State	20	Miami	6	Miami -6.5	NC State	44.0	Under
2021	10/23	Miami	31	NC State	30	NC State -3.5	Miami	54.5	Over
2020	11/06	NC State	41	Miami	44	Miami -10	NC State	57.5	Over
2016	11/19	NC State	13	Miami	27	Miami -2.5	Miami	52.0	Under
2012	09/29	Miami	44	NC State	37
2008	11/29	NC State	38	Miami	28
2007	11/03	Miami	16	NC State	19
2004	10/23	NC State	31	Miami	45

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Miami	6	3	2 Overs
NC State	3	2	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 4	4 - 1	1 - 0	3 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 5	1 - 4	1 - 3	0 - 1

(#) NCST at (#) MIAMI

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NCST	MIAMI
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#14	#32
Perf GradeGrade	#29	#91
OffenseOff	#41	#65
DefenseDef	#27	#102
Spec TeamsST	#55	#120
TalentTal	#34	#13
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

NC State Injury Report

Miami Injury Report

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	MIAMI Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#41	#102
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#39	#51
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	MIAMI Def
Run GameRun	#101	#87
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#23	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#134

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	MIAMI Def
Pass GamePass	#19	#84
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#48	#108
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Miami on Offense


CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	NCST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#65	#27
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#25	#14
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Miami Run Game


CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#97	#26
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#36

Miami Pass Game


CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#39
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#7	#78
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

NCST 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 81° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 8
NC State 3.5 (54.5)
Miami won vs NC State this year (31-30)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat NC State last year (41-7)
NC State beat Miami in 2023 (20-6)

NCST's OC Tim Beck* (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MIAMI's OC Rhett Lashlee (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Manny Diaz (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD