Notre Dame at Florida State - 2021 Matchup Preview
Notre Dame logo   Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Florida State Seminoles  Florida State logo
Sunday, September 5th 2021 (7:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -7 (53.5)
Notre Dame 41 - Florida State: 38  (ACC)

 
Fighting Irish (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (84 - 38)
Avg Score : 42 - 18 (38 - 17 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -2.5  (SP+ ND -10)
Projected Score: ND: 30 - FSU: 28 (58)
ND Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
ND Travel: 785 miles
Seminoles (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (43 - 16 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Notre Dame's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/5 Notre Dame at Florida State-7.053.5W 41 - 38ON
Sat 9/11 Notre Dame vs Toledo-16.555.0W 32 - 29ON
Sat 9/18 Notre Dame vs Purdue-7.558.0W 27 - 13UY
Sat 9/25 Notre Dame vs Wisconsin+6.043.5W 41 - 13OY
Sat 10/2 Notre Dame vs Cincinnati+2.550.0L 13 - 24UN
Sat 10/9 Notre Dame at Virginia Tech+1.046.5W 32 - 29OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23 Notre Dame vs USC-8.059.5W 31 - 16UY
Sat 10/30 Notre Dame vs North Carolina-3.563.0W 44 - 34OY
Sat 11/6 Notre Dame vs Navy-21.047.5W 34 - 6UY
Sat 11/13 Notre Dame at Virginia-7.562.5W 28 - 3UY
Sat 11/20 Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech-18.057.5W 55 - 0UY
Sat 11/27 Notre Dame at Stanford-20.553.0W 45 - 14OY
Sat 1/1 Notre Dame vs Oklahoma State+1.545.5L 35 - 37ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule
Florida State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/5 Florida State vs Notre Dame+7.053.5L 38 - 41OY
Sat 9/11 Florida State vs Jacksonville State-27.556.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 9/18 Florida State at Wake Forest+4.563.0L 14 - 35UN
Sat 9/25 Florida State vs Louisville-1.561.0L 23 - 31UN
Sat 10/2 Florida State vs Syracuse-5.550.0W 33 - 30ON
Sat 10/9 Florida State at North Carolina+17.564.5W 35 - 25UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23 Florida State vs Massachusetts-35.059.0W 59 - 3OY
Sat 10/30 Florida State at Clemson+9.547.5L 20 - 30ON
Sat 11/6 Florida State vs NC State+3.055.0L 14 - 28UN
Sat 11/13 Florida State vs Miami+2.561.5W 31 - 28UY
Sat 11/20 Florida State at Boston College+3.055.5W 26 - 23UY
Sat 11/27 Florida State at Florida+4.058.5L 21 - 24UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ND.2547%4248%3.2621147%2373.84.1339%17.639%40%2.83380.91.4
FSU.1941%3350%3.2719932%1973.19.2648%2248%48%4.0179.21.91.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ND0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ND Offense124238.247.2%3.840.924449211237556%44%48%47%13%.25
FSU Defense92216.147.6%4.011.6 - - - - - 53%47%48%48%14%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ND Defense1217.61739.4%2.831.4 - - - - - 44%55%39%40%22%.13
FSU Offense93343.341.4%3.191.9213951991975.152%48%50%32%19%.19

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Notre Dame1233:4924.249%65%4.4380.91.47.32.4229
Florida State930:2920.636%54%8.979.21.91.65.41.1128.3
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ND Offense1256%48%42.2211.4533.163.2688%10%0.91
FSU Defense953%48% - - - - .22.9266%10%1.1
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ND Defense1244%39% - - - - .042.4371%14%1.04
FSU Offense952%50%39198.85.119.353.2782%12%1.19

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ND Offense1244%47%19.330.2237.47.912.3153.371.629%36%.423%1.9
FSU Defense947%48% - - - - - - 8.341.628%38%.585%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ND Defense1255%40% - - - - - - 7.221.637%30%.348%2.1
FSU Offense948%32%17.832.6196.7611.11013.011.634%29%.338%2.1

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: NR
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: NR
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Notre Dame's 2021 Expected Record: -
Notre Dame's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.4  #11
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2  #20
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9  #15

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame:    Florida State: 6.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 17.4   Florida State: 7.6




Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 6.3 NR
Florida State's Offense Rating: NR
Florida State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Florida State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Florida State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.6  #53
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.8  #58
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #37

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense on Road: 38.2
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Notre Dame's 2021 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 30
Florida State 28

Projected Total Points: 58
Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Florida State's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09Notre Dame52Florida State3Notre Dame -25.5Notre Dame44.5Over
202109/05Florida State38Notre Dame41Notre Dame -7Florida State53.5Over
202010/10Notre Dame42Florida State26Notre Dame -21.0Florida State54.0Over
201811/10Notre Dame42Florida State13Notre Dame -16.5Notre Dame49.5Over
201410/18Florida State31Notre Dame27Florida State -13.5Notre Dame0
201112/29Notre Dame14Florida State18
200311/01Notre Dame0Florida State37
200210/26Florida State24Notre Dame34
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida State324 Overs
Notre Dame530 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 43 - 22 - 21 - 0
Road Teams4 - 42 - 30 - 12 - 2

(#) ND at (#) FSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNDFSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #11 #53
Perf GradeGrade #12 #82
OffenseOff #24 #99
DefenseDef #13 #25
Spec TeamsST #14 #110
TalentTal #12 #20
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Notre Dame on Offense
CategoryCat
ND OffFSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #24 #25
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #20 #37
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Notre Dame Run Game
CategoryCat
ND OffFSU Def
Run GameRun #51 #13
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #22 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #14
Notre Dame Pass Game
CategoryCat
ND OffFSU Def
Pass GamePass #40 #65
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #15 #43
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Florida State on Offense
CategoryCatFSU OffND Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #99 #13
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #58 #15
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Florida State Run Game
CategoryCat
FSU OffND Def
Run GameRun #80 #25
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #124 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #7
Florida State Pass Game
CategoryCatFSU OffND Def
Pass GamePass #49 #17
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #42 #52
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'21 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
Notre Dame 7.0 (53.5)
Notre Dame won at Florida State this year (41-38)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat Florida State in 2024 (52-3)

  
ND's OC Tommy Rees (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

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ND's DC Marcus Freeman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

FSU's OC Kenny Dillingham (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

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FSU's DC Adam Fuller (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD