Florida State at Florida - 2021 Matchup Preview
Florida State logo   Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators  Florida logo
Saturday, November 27th 2021 (12:00 PM EST)
Florida -4 (58.5)
Florida 24 - Florida State: 21

 
Seminoles (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (19 - 30 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
FSU 2nd straight Road Game
FLA is playing their 5th straight game
FSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -4  (SP+ FLA -3)
Projected Score: FSU: 24 - FLA: 26 (50)
FLA Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
FSU Travel: 129 miles
Gators (6 - 7) (3 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dan Mullen (31 - 10)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (29 - 19 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/5 Florida State vs Notre Dame+7.053.5L 38 - 41OY
Sat 9/11 Florida State vs Jacksonville State-27.556.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 9/18 Florida State at Wake Forest+4.563.0L 14 - 35UN
Sat 9/25 Florida State vs Louisville-1.561.0L 23 - 31UN
Sat 10/2 Florida State vs Syracuse-5.550.0W 33 - 30ON
Sat 10/9 Florida State at North Carolina+17.564.5W 35 - 25UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23 Florida State vs Massachusetts-35.059.0W 59 - 3OY
Sat 10/30 Florida State at Clemson+9.547.5L 20 - 30ON
Sat 11/6 Florida State vs NC State+3.055.0L 14 - 28UN
Sat 11/13 Florida State vs Miami+2.561.5W 31 - 28UY
Sat 11/20 Florida State at Boston College+3.055.5W 26 - 23UY
Sat 11/27 Florida State at Florida+4.058.5L 21 - 24UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Florida's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Florida vs Florida Atlantic-23.551.5W 35 - 14UN
Sat 9/11 Florida at South Florida-29.057.0W 42 - 20ON
Sat 9/18 Florida vs Alabama+14.059.5L 29 - 31OY
Sat 9/25 Florida vs Tennessee-19.065.0W 38 - 14UY
Sat 10/2 Florida at Kentucky-7.556.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 10/9 Florida vs Vanderbilt-39.060.5W 42 - 0UY
Sat 10/16 Florida at LSU-12.561.0L 42 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30 Florida vs Georgia+14.050.0L 7 - 34UN
Sat 11/6 Florida at South Carolina-20.552.0L 17 - 40ON
Sat 11/13 Florida vs Samford-36.068.5W 70 - 52ON
Sat 11/20 Florida at Missouri-9.569.0L 23 - 24UN
Sat 11/27 Florida vs Florida State-4.058.5W 24 - 21UN
Thu 12/23 Florida vs UCF-7.056.0L 17 - 29UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU.1941%3350%3.2719932%1973.19.2648%2248%48%4.0179.21.91.6
FLA.3250%21.645%3.1913154%3794.51.2446%2448%43%4.0446.41.61.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense93318.641.4%3.191.9213951991975.152%48%50%32%19%.19
FLA Defense122418.745.8%4.041.3 - - - - - 49%51%48%43%16%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense92230.247.6%4.011.6 - - - - - 53%47%48%48%14%.26
FLA Offense1221.62950.3%4.511.6265101313794.341%59%45%54%15%.32

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State930:2920.636%54%8.979.21.91.65.41.1128.3
Florida1231:0226.350%58%5.546.41.61.362.8128.4
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense952%50%39198.85.119.353.2782%12%1.19
FLA Defense1249%48% - - - - .23.2175%10%0.87
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense953%48% - - - - .22.9266%10%1.1
FLA Offense1241%45%30.6131.34.312.133.1977%8%0.88

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense948%32%17.832.6196.7611.11013.011.634%29%.338%2.1
FLA Defense1251%43% - - - - - - 9.281.629%35%.396%1.8
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense947%48% - - - - - - 8.341.628%38%.585%2.2
FLA Offense1259%54%26.839.4378.69.614.24610.461.628%42%.518%2

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: NR
Florida State's Offense Rating: NR
Florida State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Florida State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Florida State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.6  #53
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.8  #58
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #37

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State:    Florida: 8

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 7.6   Florida: 11.0




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 8 NR
Florida's Offense Rating: NR
Florida's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Florida's 2021 Expected Record: -
Florida's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.0  #29
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #22
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2  #39

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.6
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Florida State's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Florida 26
Florida State 24

Projected Total Points: 50
Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

Florida's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Florida40Florida State21Florida State -1.5Florida48.5Over
202411/30Florida State11Florida31Florida -17.5Florida45.5Under
202311/25Florida15Florida State24Florida State -6Florida State51.0Under
202211/25Florida State45Florida38Florida State -10Florida58.5Over
202111/27Florida24Florida State21Florida -4Florida State58.5Under
201911/30Florida40Florida State17Florida -16.5Florida55.0Over
201811/24Florida State14Florida41Florida -8.5Florida52.0Over
201711/25Florida22Florida State38Florida State -4.5Florida State43.0Over
201611/26Florida State31Florida13Florida State -5Florida State47.0Under
201511/28Florida2Florida State27Florida -3Florida State44.0Under
201411/29Florida State24Florida19Florida State -10Florida0
201311/30Florida7Florida State37Florida State -26Florida State0
201211/24Florida State26Florida37
201111/26Florida7Florida State21
201011/27Florida State31Florida7
200911/28Florida37Florida State10
200811/29Florida State15Florida45
200711/24Florida45Florida State12
200611/25Florida State14Florida21
200511/26Florida34Florida State7
200411/20Florida State13Florida20
200311/29Florida34Florida State38
200111/17Florida37Florida State13
200011/17Florida State30Florida7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida1365 Overs
Florida State1165 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 123 - 92 - 41 - 5
Road Teams12 - 129 - 35 - 14 - 2

(#) FSU at (#) FLA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFSUFLA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #53 #29
Perf GradeGrade #82 #89
OffenseOff #99 #73
DefenseDef #25 #90
Spec TeamsST #110 #84
TalentTal #20 #9
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Florida State on Offense
CategoryCat
FSU OffFLA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #99 #90
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #58 #39
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Florida State Run Game
CategoryCat
FSU OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #80 #61
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #124 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #62
Florida State Pass Game
CategoryCat
FSU OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #49 #115
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #42 #29
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Florida on Offense
CategoryCatFLA OffFSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #73 #25
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #22 #37
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Florida Run Game
CategoryCat
FLA OffFSU Def
Run GameRun #3 #13
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #127 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #14
Florida Pass Game
CategoryCatFLA OffFSU Def
Pass GamePass #84 #65
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #52 #43
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining CFP Hopefuls
'21 Profile: Down to Average P4

FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
Florida -4.0 (58.5)
Florida won vs Florida State this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Florida State last year (40-21)
Florida beat Florida State in 2024 (31-11)
Florida State beat Florida in 2023 (24-15)

  
FSU's OC Kenny Dillingham (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

FLA's OC Dan Mullen (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Todd Grantham (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD