Massachusetts at Florida State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Massachusetts Minutemen at Florida State Seminoles

Saturday, October 23rd 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
Florida State -35 (59.0)
Florida State 59 - Massachusetts: 3

Minutemen (1 - 11) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Walt Bell (1 - 18)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (9 - 43 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UMASS coming off BYE
FSU coming off BYE
Our Line: -21 (SP+ FSU -37)
Projected Score: UMASS: 15 - FSU: 39 (54)
FSU Win prob: 99% | Cover: 47%
UMASS Travel: 1051 miles

Seminoles (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (43 - 16 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UMASS Players
FSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Massachusetts's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Massachusetts at Pittsburgh	+38.0	56.0	L 7 - 51	O	N
Sat 9/11	Massachusetts vs Boston College	+39.0	57.0	L 28 - 45	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan	+22.0	56.5	L 28 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Massachusetts at Coastal Carolina	+36.0	66.0	L 3 - 53	U	N
Sat 10/2	Massachusetts vs Toledo	+26.5	56.5	L 7 - 45	U	N
Sat 10/9	Massachusetts vs UConn	+3.0	57.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Massachusetts at Florida State	+35.0	59.0	L 3 - 59	O	N
Sat 10/30	Massachusetts at Liberty	+35.5	56.0	L 17 - 62	O	N
Sat 11/6	Massachusetts vs Rhode Island	-2.5	55.5	L 22 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/13	Massachusetts vs Maine	+6.0	58.5	L 10 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/20	Massachusetts at Army	+37.5	56.0	L 17 - 33	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Massachusetts at New Mexico State	+7.0	58.5	L 27 - 44	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Florida State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/5	Florida State vs Notre Dame	+7.0	53.5	L 38 - 41	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Florida State vs Jacksonville State	-27.5	56.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/18	Florida State at Wake Forest	+4.5	63.0	L 14 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/25	Florida State vs Louisville	-1.5	61.0	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/2	Florida State vs Syracuse	-5.5	50.0	W 33 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/9	Florida State at North Carolina	+17.5	64.5	W 35 - 25	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Florida State vs Massachusetts	-35.0	59.0	W 59 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/30	Florida State at Clemson	+9.5	47.5	L 20 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/6	Florida State vs NC State	+3.0	55.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/13	Florida State vs Miami	+2.5	61.5	W 31 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Florida State at Boston College	+3.0	55.5	W 26 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Florida State at Florida	+4.0	58.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	-.11	25%	11.1	21%	2.18	67	31%	122	0.56	.39	52%	38.6	52%	51%	3.79	54	1.8	0.5
FSU	.19	41%	33	50%	3.27	199	32%	197	3.19	.26	48%	22	48%	48%	4.01	79.2	1.9	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Offense	4	11.1	9.3	25.5%	0.56	1.8	11	189	67	122	2.3	51%	49%	21%	31%	21%	-.11
FSU Defense	9	22	16.1	47.6%	4.01	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	48%	48%	14%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Defense	4	38.6	42.5	51.5%	3.79	0.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	52%	51%	17%	.39
FSU Offense	9	33	43.3	41.4%	3.19	1.9	21	395	199	197	5.1	52%	48%	50%	32%	19%	.19

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Massachusetts	4	26:45	10.5	26%	44%	5.3	54	1.8	0.5	7.8	2.3	0	25.1
Florida State	9	30:29	20.6	36%	54%	8.9	79.2	1.9	1.6	5.4	1.1	1	28.3

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense	4	51%	21%	29.3	67.3	2.3	0	-.22	2.18	38%	15%	1.06
FSU Defense	9	53%	48%	-	-	-	-	.2	2.92	66%	10%	1.1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense	4	53%	52%	-	-	-	-	.32	3.04	88%	13%	1.15
FSU Offense	9	52%	50%	39	198.8	5.1	19	.35	3.27	82%	12%	1.19

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense	4	49%	31%	13.5	25	121.5	4.9	9	1	5	.01	1.5	38%	21%	.11	6%	1.9
FSU Defense	9	47%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.34	1.6	28%	38%	.58	5%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense	4	47%	51%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	.46	1.6	31%	39%	.41	5%	1.7
FSU Offense	9	48%	32%	17.8	32.6	196.7	6	11.1	10	13	.01	1.6	34%	29%	.33	8%	2.1

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: NR
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: NR
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Massachusetts's 2021 Expected Record: -
Massachusetts's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -29.3 #131
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #127
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.9 #131

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: Florida State: 6.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -29.3 Florida State: 7.6

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 6.3 NR
Florida State's Offense Rating: NR
Florida State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Florida State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Florida State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.6 #53
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #58
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #37

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.3
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Massachusetts's 2021 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0

Projected Score
Florida State 39
Massachusetts 15

Projected Total Points: 54

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Florida State's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2021	10/23	Florida State	59	Massachusetts	3	Florida State -35	Florida State	59.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida State	1	1	1 Overs
Massachusetts	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#) UMASS at (#) FSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UMASS	FSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#131	#53
Perf GradeGrade	#136	#82
OffenseOff	#133	#99
DefenseDef	#134	#25
Spec TeamsST	#132	#110
TalentTal	#126	#20
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Massachusetts Injury Report

Florida State Injury Report

Massachusetts on Offense


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	FSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#133	#25
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#127	#37
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Massachusetts Run Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	#63	#13
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#119	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#14

Massachusetts Pass Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	#136	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#104	#43
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Florida State on Offense


CategoryCat	FSU Off	UMASS Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#99	#134
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#58	#131
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Florida State Run Game


CategoryCat	FSU Off	UMASS Def
Run GameRun	#80	#128
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#124	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#117

Florida State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FSU Off	UMASS Def
Pass GamePass	#49	#135
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#42	#121
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'21 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Florida State -35.0 (59.0)
Florida State won vs Massachusetts this year (59-3)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

UMASS's OC Angelo Mirando (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Tommy Restivo (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

FSU's OC Kenny Dillingham (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD