Western Kentucky at Michigan State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Michigan State Spartans

Saturday, October 2nd 2021 (7:30 PM EDT)
Michigan State -10.5 (66.5)
Michigan State 48 - Western Kentucky: 31

Hilltoppers (9 - 5) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (15 - 12)
Avg Score : 44 - 29 (40 - 31 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSU 2nd straight Home Game
MSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -1.5 (SP+ WKU -2)
Projected Score: WKU: 32 - MSU: 33 (65)
MSU Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
WKU Travel: 410 miles, 1 hrs behind

Spartans (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Mel Tucker (5 - 5)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (37 - 24 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WKU Players
MSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Kentucky's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	Western Kentucky vs UT Martin	-24.0	58.5	W 59 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Western Kentucky at Army	+6.0	52.0	L 35 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/25	Western Kentucky vs Indiana	+9.5	62.5	L 31 - 33	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Western Kentucky at Michigan State	+10.5	66.5	L 31 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/9	Western Kentucky vs UTSA	-3.5	71.0	L 46 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/16	Western Kentucky at Old Dominion	-13.5	66.5	W 43 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Western Kentucky at Florida International	-16.5	78.0	W 34 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/30	Western Kentucky vs Charlotte	-19.5	71.5	W 45 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/6	Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee	-17.5	66.5	W 48 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/13	Western Kentucky at Rice	-19.0	61.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Western Kentucky vs Florida Atlantic	-11.5	64.0	W 52 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Western Kentucky at Marshall	-1.0	75.5	W 53 - 21	U	Y
Fri 12/3	Western Kentucky at UTSA	-3.0	74.5	L 41 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/18	Western Kentucky vs App State	+3.0	67.0	W 59 - 38	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Michigan State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	Michigan State at Northwestern	+3.0	45.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Michigan State vs Youngstown State	-28.5	52.0	W 42 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/18	Michigan State at Miami	+7.0	57.5	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Michigan State vs Nebraska	-3.5	55.0	W 23 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/2	Michigan State vs Western Kentucky	-10.5	66.5	W 48 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Michigan State at Rutgers	-4.5	50.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Michigan State at Indiana	-3.5	48.5	W 20 - 15	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Michigan State vs Michigan	+4.0	50.5	W 37 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Michigan State at Purdue	-2.5	53.0	L 29 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/13	Michigan State vs Maryland	-11.5	60.0	W 40 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Michigan State at Ohio State	+19.5	70.5	L 7 - 56	U	N
Sat 11/27	Michigan State vs Penn State	+3.5	51.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Thu 12/30	Michigan State vs Pittsburgh	-3.5	55.0	W 31 - 21	U	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	.39	52%	44.2	50%	3.22	103	53%	434	4.73	.23	45%	29.4	46%	44%	4.05	54.1	1.4	2.4
MSU	.27	43%	31.8	44%	2.94	176	43%	254	3.78	.19	44%	25.3	41%	46%	3.43	63.9	1.4	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)		38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)		48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)		45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)		39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Offense	14	44.2	39.9	52.2%	4.73	1.4	28	536	103	434	4.1	28%	72%	50%	53%	15%	.39
MSU Defense	13	25.3	24.3	44%	3.43	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	38%	61%	41%	46%	17%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Defense	14	29.4	30.9	45.4%	4.05	2.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	46%	44%	18%	.23
MSU Offense	13	31.8	36.7	43.3%	3.78	1.4	21	429	176	254	4.8	52%	48%	44%	43%	18%	.27

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Kentucky	14	27:40	27.5	47%	50%	6.8	54.1	1.4	2.4	5.9	2.6	4	31.3
Michigan State	13	28:28	20.8	40%	70%	6.9	63.9	1.4	1.7	6.5	3.3	4	29.3

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Offense	14	28%	50%	24.9	102.5	4.1	13	.14	3.22	68%	7%	0.8
MSU Defense	13	38%	41%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.78	70%	10%	0.85

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Defense	14	52%	46%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.21	75%	10%	0.92
MSU Offense	13	52%	44%	36.8	175.6	4.8	23	.18	2.94	67%	10%	1.12

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Offense	14	72%	53%	34.3	49.8	433.7	8.7	12.7	63	12	.49	1.5	27%	44%	.7	9%	2.2
MSU Defense	13	61%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.28	1.4	33%	32%	.38	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Defense	14	47%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	21	.3	1.6	28%	30%	.26	8%	2.1
MSU Offense	13	48%	43%	18.7	30.8	253.7	8.3	13.6	27	10	.38	1.8	32%	33%	.4	7%	2.1

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: NR
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: NR
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Western Kentucky's 2021 Expected Record: -
Western Kentucky's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.3 #24
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.5 #5
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #90

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: Michigan State: 8.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: 13.3 Michigan State: 11.2

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 8.1 NR
Michigan State's Offense Rating: NR
Michigan State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Michigan State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Michigan State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.2 #28
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #31
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 44.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 39.9
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.9

Western Kentucky's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan State 33
Western Kentucky 32

Total Points: 65

Based on Last 4 Games
Michigan State 34
Western Kentucky 29

Total Points: 63

Based on Entire Season
Western Kentucky 34
Michigan State 32

Total Points: 66

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.7
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

Michigan State's 2021 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2021	10/02	Michigan State	48	Western Kentucky	31	Michigan State -10.5	Michigan State	66.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan State	1	1	1 Overs
Western Kentucky	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#) WKU at (#) MSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WKU	MSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#24	#28
Perf GradeGrade	#29	#36
OffenseOff	#16	#26
DefenseDef	#67	#43
Spec TeamsST	#96	#126
TalentTal	#74	#36
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Western Kentucky Injury Report

Michigan State Injury Report

Western Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	WKU Off	MSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#16	#43
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#5	#30
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Western Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	WKU Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#82	#20
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#47	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#109

Western Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	WKU Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#12	#91
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#1	#20
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Michigan State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSU Off	WKU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#26	#67
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#31	#90
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Michigan State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#51	#91
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#81

Michigan State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#33
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#22	#81
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

WKU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 66° - Wind: 7 mph
Rain: 0.004

Rematch from Week 5
Michigan State -10.5 (66.5)
Michigan State won vs Western Kentucky this year (48-31)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

WKU's OC Zach Kittley (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Maurice Crum Jr. (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSU's OC Jay Johnson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD