Air Force at Fresno State - 2016 Matchup Preview

Air Force Falcons at Fresno State Bulldogs

Friday, October 28th 2016 (10:30 PM EDT)
Air Force -13.5 (51.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 31 - Fresno State: 21 (Mountain West)

Falcons (10 - 3) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 35 - 26 (31 - 25 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FRES is playing their 9th straight game
AFA is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -8 (SP+ AFA -21.5)
Projected Score: AFA: 28 - FRES: 22 (50)
AFA Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
AFA Travel: 826 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (1 - 11) (6 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 18 - 31 (21 - 22 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Air Force vs Abilene Christian	-44.0
Sat 9/10	Air Force vs Georgia State	-22.5	52.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24	Air Force at Utah State	-3.0	53.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Air Force vs Navy	-10.5	50.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Air Force at Wyoming	-13.5	50.0	L 26 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/15	Air Force vs New Mexico	-15.0	53.5	L 40 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/22	Air Force vs Hawai'i	-17.5	58.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Fri 10/28	Air Force at Fresno State	-13.5	51.0	W 31 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/5	Air Force at Army	-3.0	46.5	W 31 - 12	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Air Force vs Colorado State	-6.0	54.0	W 49 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/19	Air Force at San José State	-11.0	54.5	W 41 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/25	Air Force vs Boise State	+9.0	63.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Fri 12/30	Air Force vs South Alabama	-14.0	54.0	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Fresno State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Fresno State at Nebraska	+29.5	62.5	L 10 - 43	U	N
Sat 9/10	Fresno State vs Sacramento State	-15
Sat 9/17	Fresno State at Toledo	+20.0	57.5	L 17 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/24	Fresno State vs Tulsa	+11.5	66.5	L 41 - 48	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Fresno State at UNLV	+11.5	56.5	L 20 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/8	Fresno State at Nevada	+11.5	54.0	L 22 - 27	U	Y
Fri 10/14	Fresno State vs San Diego State	+17.5	51.0	L 3 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Fresno State at Utah State	+14.0	51.0	L 20 - 38	O	N
Fri 10/28	Fresno State vs Air Force	+13.5	51.0	L 21 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Fresno State at Colorado State	+13.0	58.5	L 0 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/19	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	+2.5	54.5	L 13 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Fresno State vs San José State	+4.0	51.5	L 14 - 16	U	Y

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.21	48%	35.2	49%	3.23	317	40%	135	3.8	.16	37%	26.2	35%	38%	3.27	52.4	1.3	1.8
FRES	.06	36%	17.7	36%	2.37	116	35%	213	2.83	.2	48%	30.9	52%	39%	3.85	55.8	1.5	0.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)		38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)		43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	35.2	31.2	48.5%	3.8	1.3	23	452	317	135	5	80%	18%	49%	40%	11%	.21
FRES Defense	12	30.9	21.5	48.2%	3.85	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	66%	33%	52%	39%	12%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	26.2	25.2	37%	3.27	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	35%	38%	19%	.16
FRES Offense	12	17.7	20.5	36.3%	2.83	1.5	17	329	116	213	3.2	48%	50%	36%	35%	18%	.06

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	34:03	23.2	51%	53%	5.2	52.4	1.3	1.8	5.5	2.3	3	30.9
Fresno State	12	28:48	17.2	38%	35%	6.3	55.8	1.5	0.7	4.6	1.2	0	28.7

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	80%	49%	63.6	317.4	5	39	.18	3.23	74%	9%	0.85
FRES Defense	12	66%	52%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.42	80%	8%	0.84

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	49%	35%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.34	66%	11%	1.06
FRES Offense	12	48%	36%	36.7	116.2	3.2	11	-.03	2.37	70%	11%	0.85

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	18%	40%	5.2	11.5	134.8	11.7	25.8	14	8	.47	2.4	25%	35%	.28	2%	1.6
FRES Defense	12	33%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.27	1.6	27%	33%	.32	5%	1.7

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	50%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.3	2	38%	33%	.38	8%	2.3
FRES Offense	12	50%	35%	17.5	33.8	213.1	6.3	12.2	13	13	.15	1.7	40%	31%	.22	7%	1.7

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #181
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Air Force's 2016 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.4 #58
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #45
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #79

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: Fresno State: -5.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 4.4 Fresno State: -16.9

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -5.95 NR
Fresno State's Offense Rating: NR
Fresno State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Fresno State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Fresno State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.9 #121
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.4 #126
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #96

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 35.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.2
Defense: 26.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Air Force's 2016 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 28
Fresno State 22

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 26
Fresno State 22

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 30
Fresno State 22

Total Points: 52

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 17.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.5
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.5

Fresno State's 2016 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/09	Air Force	36	Fresno State	28	Fresno State -9.5	Air Force	40.5	Over
2019	10/12	Air Force	43	Fresno State	24	Air Force -2.5	Air Force	50.5	Over
2016	10/28	Fresno State	21	Air Force	31	Air Force -13.5	Fresno State	51.0	Over
2015	10/24	Air Force	42	Fresno State	14	Air Force -17	Air Force	54.0	Over
2012	11/24	Fresno State	48	Air Force	15
2000	12/30	Air Force	37	Fresno State	34

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	1	1	4 Overs
Air Force	5	3	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 1	4 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 5	0 - 4	0 - 2	0 - 2

(#) AFA at (#) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#58	#121
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#181	#93
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Air Force Injury Report

Fresno State Injury Report

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#45	#96
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#126	#79
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Remains Poor G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions: Fog
Temp: 65°

Rematch from Week 9
Air Force 13.5 (51.0)
Air Force won at Fresno State this year (31-21)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Fresno State last year (36-28)

AFA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

FRES's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD