Fresno State at Utah State - 2016 Matchup Preview

Fresno State Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies

Saturday, October 22nd 2016 (10:30 PM EDT)
Utah State -14 (51.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Utah State 38 - Fresno State: 20 (Mountain West)

Bulldogs (1 - 11) (6 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (26 - 25 on Road)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USU coming off BYE
FRES is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: -9 (SP+ USU -13)
Projected Score: FRES: 25 - USU: 28 (53)
USU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
FRES Travel: 545 miles, 1 hrs behind

Aggies (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (38 - 20 @ Home)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FRES Players
USU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Fresno State at Nebraska	+29.5	62.5	L 10 - 43	U	N
Sat 9/10	Fresno State vs Sacramento State	-15
Sat 9/17	Fresno State at Toledo	+20.0	57.5	L 17 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/24	Fresno State vs Tulsa	+11.5	66.5	L 41 - 48	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Fresno State at UNLV	+11.5	56.5	L 20 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/8	Fresno State at Nevada	+11.5	54.0	L 22 - 27	U	Y
Fri 10/14	Fresno State vs San Diego State	+17.5	51.0	L 3 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Fresno State at Utah State	+14.0	51.0	L 20 - 38	O	N
Fri 10/28	Fresno State vs Air Force	+13.5	51.0	L 21 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Fresno State at Colorado State	+13.0	58.5	L 0 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/19	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	+2.5	54.5	L 13 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Fresno State vs San José State	+4.0	51.5	L 14 - 16	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Utah State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Utah State vs Weber State	-21.0
Sat 9/10	Utah State at USC	+14.0	54.5	L 7 - 45	U	N
Fri 9/16	Utah State vs Arkansas State	-8.0	56.0	W 34 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/24	Utah State vs Air Force	+3.0	53.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/1	Utah State at Boise State	+19.5	60.5	L 10 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Utah State at Colorado State	-6.0	53.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22	Utah State vs Fresno State	-14.0	51.0	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Fri 10/28	Utah State vs San Diego State	+3.0	45.0	L 13 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/5	Utah State at Wyoming	+4.0	55.5	L 28 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/12	Utah State vs New Mexico	-2.5	57.0	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/19	Utah State at Nevada	-5.0	56.5	L 37 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/26	Utah State at BYU	+17.0	51.5	L 10 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2015)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	.01	36%	25.8	40%	2.4	137	31%	178	3.21	.26	47%	18.8	48%	43%	3.75	39.3	1.9	1.7
USU	.12	41%	30.9	41%	2.63	165	39%	206	3.39	.1	39%	28.7	39%	36%	3.65	58.9	1.8	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2015

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	12	25.8	26.3	35.8%	3.21	1.9	17	315	137	178	3.9	46%	52%	40%	31%	4%	.01
USU Defense	13	28.7	19.5	38.6%	3.65	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	59%	39%	39%	36%	1%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	12	18.8	24.8	46.6%	3.75	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	59%	40%	48%	43%	2%	.26
USU Offense	13	30.9	38.3	40.8%	3.39	1.8	19	371	165	206	4.5	50%	49%	41%	39%	2%	.12

Additional Stats 2015

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	12	27:19	17.3	37%	31%	4.9	39.3	1.9	1.7	0	0	1	31.1
Utah State	13	28:45	19.4	35%	50%	6.4	58.9	1.8	1.7	0	0	4	31.7

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	12	46%	40%	35.3	136.8	3.9	14	.07	2.4	63%	0%	1.13
USU Defense	13	59%	39%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.58	67%	0%	0.97

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	12	59%	48%	-	-	-	-	.27	3.3	77%	0%	1.01
USU Offense	13	50%	41%	37	165.1	4.5	22	.1	2.63	70%	0%	1.08

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	12	52%	31%	16.8	33.6	178.3	5.3	10.6	20	16	-.04	1.5	38%	30%	.14	4%	1.8
USU Defense	13	39%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.2	1.7	34%	27%	.22	1%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	12	40%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.26	1.6	29%	40%	.55	2%	2
USU Offense	13	49%	39%	17.6	31	205.5	6.6	11.7	21	10	.15	1.6	36%	30%	.26	2%	2.1

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: NR
Fresno State's Offense Rating: NR
Fresno State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Fresno State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Fresno State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.9 #121
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.4 #126
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #96

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: Utah State: 0.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -16.9 Utah State: -4.4

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: 0.3 NR
Utah State's Offense Rating: NR
Utah State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Utah State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Utah State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.4 #86
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #96
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #59

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Fresno State's 2016 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0

Projected Score
Utah State 28
Fresno State 25

Projected Total Points: 53

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.3
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Utah State's 2016 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Fresno State	17	Utah State	28	Fresno State -1.5	Utah State	50.5	Under
2023	10/13	Utah State	32	Fresno State	37	Fresno State -5.5	Utah State	56.0	Over
2020	11/14	Utah State	16	Fresno State	35	Fresno State -10.5	Fresno State	51.5	Under
2019	11/09	Fresno State	35	Utah State	37	Fresno State -5	Utah State	59.0	Over
2016	10/22	Utah State	38	Fresno State	20	Utah State -14	Utah State	51.0	Over
2015	10/10	Fresno State	14	Utah State	56	Utah State -10	Utah State	50.0	Over
2013	12/07	Fresno State	24	Utah State	17	Fresno State -6	Fresno State	0
2011	10/15	Fresno State	31	Utah State	21
2010	09/18	Utah State	24	Fresno State	41
2009	10/31	Fresno State	31	Utah State	27
2008	10/25	Utah State	28	Fresno State	30
2007	11/03	Fresno State	38	Utah State	27
2006	10/07	Utah State	13	Fresno State	12
2005	10/15	Fresno State	53	Utah State	21
2001	12/01	Fresno State	70	Utah State	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Utah State	5	5	4 Overs
Fresno State	10	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 7	3 - 4	2 - 2	1 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 8	4 - 3	2 - 1	2 - 2

(#) FRES at (#) USU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FRES	USU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#121	#86
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#93	#111
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Fresno State Injury Report

Utah State Injury Report

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	USU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#126	#59
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Utah State on Offense


CategoryCat	USU Off	FRES Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#96	#96
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Utah State Run Game


CategoryCat	USU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Utah State Pass Game


CategoryCat	USU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average G5

FRES 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Utah State -14.0 (51.0)
Utah State won vs Fresno State this year (38-20)

Previous Matchups
Utah State beat Fresno State last year (28-17)
Fresno State beat Utah State in 2023 (37-32)

FRES's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

USU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD