Georgia State at Air Force - 2016 Matchup Preview

Georgia State Panthers at Air Force Falcons

Saturday, September 10th 2016 (2:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -22.5 (52.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 48 - Georgia State: 14

Panthers (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 20 - 27 (13 - 28 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 17.2 MPH
AFA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -11 (SP+ AFA -17)
Projected Score: GAST: 24 - AFA: 28 (52)
AFA Win prob: 95% | Cover: 53%
GAST Travel: 1192 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Falcons (10 - 3) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 35 - 26 (36 - 25 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
GAST Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Georgia State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/2	Georgia State vs Ball State	+5.5	56.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/10	Georgia State at Air Force	+22.5	52.5	L 14 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/17	Georgia State at Wisconsin	+30.0	51.5	L 17 - 23	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/1	Georgia State at App State	+21.0	52.0	L 3 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Georgia State vs Texas State	-8.5	58.0	W 41 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Georgia State at Troy	+16.5	54.0	L 21 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Georgia State vs UT Martin	-12.5
Sat 10/29	Georgia State at South Alabama	+3.5	47.5	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Thu 11/3	Georgia State vs Arkansas State	+2.0	48.0	L 16 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/12	Georgia State vs UL Monroe	-12.5	51.5	L 23 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/19	Georgia State vs Georgia Southern	+3.5	47.5	W 30 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/3	Georgia State at Idaho	+7.0	53.5	L 12 - 37	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule

Air Force's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Air Force vs Abilene Christian	-44.0
Sat 9/10	Air Force vs Georgia State	-22.5	52.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24	Air Force at Utah State	-3.0	53.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Air Force vs Navy	-10.5	50.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Air Force at Wyoming	-13.5	50.0	L 26 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/15	Air Force vs New Mexico	-15.0	53.5	L 40 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/22	Air Force vs Hawai'i	-17.5	58.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Fri 10/28	Air Force at Fresno State	-13.5	51.0	W 31 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/5	Air Force at Army	-3.0	46.5	W 31 - 12	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Air Force vs Colorado State	-6.0	54.0	W 49 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/19	Air Force at San José State	-11.0	54.5	W 41 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/25	Air Force vs Boise State	+9.0	63.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Fri 12/30	Air Force vs South Alabama	-14.0	54.0	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GAST	.11	37%	19.9	34%	2.38	88	38%	246	3.12	.09	44%	26.6	47%	36%	3.35	48.4	1.9	1.5
AFA	.21	48%	35.2	49%	3.23	317	40%	135	3.8	.16	37%	26.2	35%	38%	3.27	52.4	1.3	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GAST	#92 (.15)	41% (90)		42% (92)	2.94 (86)	134	41% (79)	256	3.85 (76)	#121 (.28)	48% (123)		49% (119)	46% (118)	4.42 (120)	49.1	1.6	1.4
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GAST Offense	12	19.9	12.8	37.1%	3.12	1.9	17	334	88	246	3.1	42%	57%	34%	38%	15%	.11
AFA Defense	13	26.2	24.8	37%	3.27	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	35%	38%	19%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GAST Defense	12	26.6	28.2	44.1%	3.35	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	58%	40%	47%	36%	12%	.09
AFA Offense	13	35.2	36	48.5%	3.8	1.3	23	452	317	135	5	80%	18%	49%	40%	11%	.21

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Georgia State	12	26:27	16.8	38%	36%	6.1	48.4	1.9	1.5	3.9	1.5	3	25.9
Air Force	13	34:03	23.2	51%	53%	5.2	52.4	1.3	1.8	5.5	2.3	3	30.9

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GAST Offense	12	42%	34%	28	87.7	3.1	10	-.03	2.38	67%	9%	0.87
AFA Defense	13	49%	35%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.34	66%	11%	1.06

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GAST Defense	12	58%	47%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.21	79%	7%	0.76
AFA Offense	13	80%	49%	63.6	317.4	5	39	.18	3.23	74%	9%	0.85

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GAST Offense	12	57%	38%	19.3	34.9	246.3	7.1	12.8	17	15	.24	1.6	37%	33%	.3	6%	1.7
AFA Defense	13	50%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.3	2	38%	33%	.38	8%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GAST Defense	12	40%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.07	1.5	29%	33%	.17	5%	1.6
AFA Offense	13	18%	40%	5.2	11.5	134.8	11.7	25.8	14	8	.47	2.4	25%	35%	.28	2%	1.6

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: NR
Georgia State's Offense Rating: NR
Georgia State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Georgia State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Georgia State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.1 #108
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.3 #122
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #49

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: Air Force: 4.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -12.1 Air Force: 4.4

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 4.7 NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #181
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Air Force's 2016 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.4 #58
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #45
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #79

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.8
Defense: 26.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.2

Georgia State's 2016 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 28
Georgia State 24

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Georgia State 28
Air Force 24

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 32
Georgia State 21

Total Points: 53

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 35.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 26.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.8

Air Force's 2016 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2016	09/10	Air Force	48	Georgia State	14	Air Force -22.5	Air Force	52.5	Over
2014	09/13	Georgia State	38	Air Force	48	Air Force -9.5	Air Force	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	2	2	1 Overs
Georgia State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1

(#) GAST at (#) AFA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	GAST	AFA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#108	#58
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#122	#181
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Georgia State Injury Report

Air Force Injury Report

Georgia State on Offense


CategoryCat	GAST Off	AFA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#122	#79
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Georgia State Run Game


CategoryCat	GAST Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Georgia State Pass Game


CategoryCat	GAST Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	GAST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#45	#49
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	GAST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	GAST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

GAST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 63° - Wind: 17 mph

Rematch from Week 2
Air Force -22.5 (52.5)
Air Force won vs Georgia State this year (48-14)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

GAST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

AFA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD